Global warming's influence on extreme weather

Understanding the cause-and-effect relationship between global warming and record-breaking weather requires asking precisely the right questions.

Extreme climate and weather events such as record high temperatures, intense downpours and severe storm surges are becoming more common in many parts of the world. But because high-quality weather records go back only about 100 years, most scientists have been reluctant to say if global warming affected particular extreme events.

On Wednesday, Dec. 17, at the American Geophysical Union's Fall Meeting in San Francisco, Noah Diffenbaugh, an associate professor of environmental Earth system science at the Stanford School of Earth Sciences, will discuss approaches to this challenge in a talk titled "Quantifying the Influence of Observed Global Warming on the Probability of Unprecedented Extreme Climate Events." He will focus on weather events that -- at the time they occur -- are more extreme than any other event in the historical record.

Diffenbaugh emphasizes that asking precisely the right question is critical for finding the correct answer.

"The media are often focused on whether global warming caused a particular event," said Diffenbaugh, who is a senior fellow at the Stanford Woods Institute for the Environment. "The more useful question for real-world decisions is: 'Is the probability of a particular event statistically different now compared with a climate without human influence?'"

Diffenbaugh said the research requires three elements: a long record of climate observations; a large collection of climate model experiments that accurately simulate the observed variations in climate; and advanced statistical techniques to analyze both the observations and the climate models.

One research challenge involves having just a few decades or a century of high-quality weather data with which to make sense of events that might occur once every 1,000 or 10,000 years in a theoretical climate without human influence.

But decision makers need to appreciate the influence of global warming on extreme climate and weather events.

"If we look over the last decade in the United States, there have been more than 70 events that have each caused at least $1 billion in damage, and a number of those have been considerably more costly," said Diffenbaugh. "Understanding whether the probability of those high-impact events has changed can help us to plan for future extreme events, and to value the costs and benefits of avoiding future global warming."

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Global warming puts wheat crops vulnerable to disease

There's a danger that harshness of outbreaks of some wheat illnesses may increase over the following ten to two decades because of the impacts of global warming based on research by worldwide scientists brought through the College of Hertfordshire.

The scientists completed market research in China to determine a hyperlink between weather and the seriousness of outbreaks of fusarium ear blight around the wheat crops. This weather-based model ended up being accustomed to predict the outcome on harshness of the condition of future weather situations for that period from 2020 to 2050.

Professor Bruce Fitt, professor of plant pathology in the College of Hertfordshire's School of Medical and Existence Sciences, stated: "There's considerable debate concerning the impact of global warming on crop production -- and ensuring we've sufficient food to give the ever-growing global human population is answer to our future food security."

Wheat, among the world's most significant crops for human food, is milled to be used in bread, breakfast cereal products, cakes, pizzas, confectionery, sauces and lots of other food products. Fusarium ear blight is really a serious disease affecting wheat across many areas around the globe. Throughout severe outbreaks, wheat crop deficits is often as almost as much ast 60 percent. These deficits may become bigger as, under certain conditions, the fusarium virus produces toxic chemicals referred to as mycotoxins. The amount of mycotoxins contained in the grain may render it unacceptable for either human or animal consumption -- the mycotoxin safe levels being controlled by legislation.

Professor Fitt ongoing: "We all know the weather plays a large part in the introduction of the condition around the wheat crops -- the incidence from the disease is dependent upon temperature and the appearance of wet weather in the flowering or anthesis from the wheat crops."

Once the weather-based model developed at Rothamsted Research was utilized to calculate how global warming may modify the wheat crops, it had been predicted that wheat flowering dates will normally be earlier and also the incidence from the ear blight disease around the wheat crops will substantially increase.

The study indicates that global warming will raise the chance of serious ear blight outbreaks on winter wheat in Central China by the center of this century (2020-2050).

Similar conclusions were arrived at about impacts of global warming on wheat within the United kingdom, where global warming models are predicting warmer, wetter winters for that country. This indicates the United kingdom too are affected a larger incidence of fusarium ear blight on wheat crops -- greatly affecting our greatest staple crops.

Inside a world where several billion people don't have sufficient to consume, and our future food security is threatened by global warming as well as an ever-growing population, it is important to enhance the charge of crop illnesses like fusarium ear blight around the world.

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Global warming will improve survival rates of British bird -- the lengthy-tailed tit

Global warming might be not so good news for billions, but researchers in the College of Sheffield have found one unlikely champion -- a small British bird, the lengthy-tailed tit.

Like other small creatures living for just 2 or 3 years, these wild birds had so far been considered to die in large amounts throughout cold winters. But new information indicates that the sunshine throughout spring rather supports the answer to their survival.

The findings originate from a 20-year study of lengthy-tailed tits operated by Professor Ben Hatchwell in the Department of Animal and Plant Sciences. The current jobs are brought by PhD student Philippa Gullett and Dr Karl Evans from Sheffield, together with Take advantage of Robinson in the British Trust for Ornithology.

"Throughout spring, wild birds must work their socks off and away to raise their chicks," stated Philippa Gullett.

"For many small wild birds living for just 2 or 3 years, not raising any chicks twelve months is really a disaster. They may only acquire one more chance, so that they can not afford to fail."

No real surprise then these wild birds are prepared to invest everything and risk dying whether it means their youthful survive. The surprise is the fact that weather helps to make the difference. The study learned that wild birds attempting to breed in dry and warm springs cash good chances of making it through to another year -- a singular result that counters common presumptions about the reason for dying for small wild birds.

"What appears to become happening would be that the tits attempt to raise their chicks no matter what,Inch added Ms Gullett.

"Whether it's winter in spring, which makes their job much harder. Meals are harder to locate eggs and chicks are vulnerable to getting cold. As a result through the finish from the breeding season, the adult wild birds are exhausted."

The research found no real aftereffect of winter months recently on adult survival, however winter autumns were connected having a greater dying rate.

"We are not to imply that wild birds never die in the winter months -- in harsh years you will find certain to be some deaths," described Dr Karl Evans.

"However, it appears that in many years fall weather plays a larger role, possibly serving as a filter that weeds out less strong wild birds prior to the real winter hits."

Although autumns could get wetter in in the future, any rise in mortality will probably be offset by the advantages of warmer breeding seasons, when more benign conditions lessen the costs of breeding.

Dr Evans added: "Searching ahead towards the future, our data indicates that each single plausible global warming scenario can result in an additional rise in lengthy-tailed survival rates. Even though many species struggle to sit in global warming, these wonderful wild birds appear apt to be those who win."

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Extreme weather triggered by global warming decides distribution of bugs, study shows

As global warming is advancing, the temperature in our planet increases. Many of the essential for the big number of creatures which are cold-blooded (ectothermic), including bugs. Their body's temperature is ultimately based on the ambient temperature, and also the same therefore is applicable towards the efficiency and speed of the vital biological processes.

But could it be alterations in climate or frequency of utmost temperature problems that possess the finest effect on species distribution? It was the questions that several Danish and Australian scientists made the decision to look at in many insect species.

Johannes Overgaard, Department of Bioscience, Aarhus College, Denmark, Michael R. Kearney and Ary A. Hoffmann, Melbourne College, Australia, lately released the outcomes of those studies within the journal Global Change Biology. The outcomes demonstrate that it's particularly the extreme temperature occasions that comprise the distribution of both tropical and temperate species. Thus global warming affects ectotermic creatures mainly because more periods of utmost weather are required later on.

Fruit flies were patterned

The scientists examined 10 fruit fly types of the genus Drosophila modified to tropical and temperate parts of Australia. First they examined the temps that the species can sustain growth and reproduction, and they found the limitations of tolerance for cold and hot temps.

"This is actually the very first time ever where we've been in a position to compare the results of extremes and alterations in average conditions inside a rigorous manner across several species," mentions Ary Hoffmann.

According to this understanding and understanding from the present distribution from the 10 species then they examined if distribution was correlated towards the temps needed for growth and reproduction in other words restricted to their ability to tolerate extreme temperature conditions.

"The solution was unambiguous: it's the species' ability to tolerate very hot or cold days that comprise their present distribution," states Johannes Overgaard.

Therefore, it is the ultimate weather occasions, for example prolonged high temperatures or very cold weather, that amounted to the bugs their existence, not a rise in climate.

Drastic changes available

With this particular information in hands, the scientists could then model how distributions are required to alter if global warming continues for the following a century.

Most terrestrial creatures experience temperature variation on daily and periodic time scale, and they're modified to those conditions. Thus, for any species to keep its existence under different temperature conditions you will find two simple conditions that must definitely be met. First of all, the temperature should from time to time be so that the species can grow and reproduce, and next, the temperature must not be so extreme the population's survival is threatened.

In temperate climate for instance, you will find many species that are modified to pass through low temps during the cold months, after which grow and reproduce within the summer time. In warmer environments, the task might be quite contrary. Here, the species might endure high temps throughout the dry hot summer time, while growth and reproduction mainly happens throughout the mild and wet winter period.

The end result was discouraging for those 10 species.

"Global warming can lead to less cold days or weeks, and therefore allow species to maneuver toward greater latitudes. However global warming also results in a greater incidence to very hot days and our model therefore forecasts the distribution of those species will disappear to under half their present distribution"states Johannes Overgaard.

"Actually, our forecasts are that some species would disappear entirely within the next couple of decades, even whether they have a reasonably wide distribution that presently covers 100s of kilometers," adds Ary Hoffmann.

"Although no 10 species analyzed are usually regarded as either dangerous or advantageous microorganisms for human society, the outcomes indicate that distribution of numerous insect species is going to be transformed significantly, and it'll most likely also affect most of the species which have particular social or commercial importance ," finishes Johannes Overgaard.

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Global warming could increase thunderstorm severity, climatologist forecasts

This spring might be a lot more like a lion than the usual lamb. John Harrington Junior. is really a synoptic climatologist and professor of geography at Kansas Condition College who studies weather occasions, how frequently they occur and also the conditions once they happened. He states global warming might be growing the seriousness of storms.

"Among the large concerns I've would be that the warmer atmospheric temps will drive a bit more evaporation from the sea and also the Gulf," Harrington stated. "One thing that can help storms be more powerful is getting more moisture, to ensure that added moisture could raise the height and harshness of a tall cumulonimbus thunderstorm cloud."

Harrington stated the additional moisture will make storms more powerful and much more potent later on.

This season could also bring a general change in climate conditions because of El Ni?o, that the U . s . States hasn’t experienced for around 2 yrs. El Ni?o warms up the temperature from the Gulf Of Mexico, which produces cooler and wetter conditions for that West Coast. Harrington states there's a great possibility El Ni?o will arrive this fall entering winter.

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Southeast England most vulnerable to rising deaths because of global warming

Warmer summer season triggered by global warming may cause more deaths working in london and southeast England compared to relaxation of the nation, researchers predict.

Scientists at Imperial College London checked out temperature records and mortality figures for 2001 to 2010 to discover which districts in Britain go through the greatest effects from warm temps.

Within the most vulnerable districts, working in london and also the southeast, the chances of dying from cardiovascular or respiratory system causes elevated by over 10 percent for each 1C increase in temperature. Districts within the far north were a lot more resilient, seeing no rise in deaths at equivalent temps.

Writing in Character Global Warming, the scientists say local versions in global warming vulnerability should be taken into consideration when assessing the potential risks and selecting policy reactions.

Dr James Bennett, charge author from the study on the MRC-PHE Center for Atmosphere and Health at Imperial College London, stated: “It’s well-known that the sunshine can increase the chance of cardiovascular and respiratory system deaths, particularly in seniors people. Global warming is anticipated to boost average temps while increasing temperature variability, so don't be surprised it to possess effects on mortality even just in nations such as the United kingdom having a temperate climate.”

Across Britain in general, a summer time that's 2C warmer than average could be likely to cause around 1,550 extra deaths, the research found. Approximately half could be in people aged over 85, and 62 percent could be in females. The additional deaths could be distributed unevenly, with 95 from 376 districts comprising 1 / 2 of all deaths.

The results of warm temperature were similar in urban and rural districts. Probably the most vulnerable districts incorporated deprived districts working in london for example Hackney and Tower Hamlets, using the likelihood of dying greater than doubling on hot days like individuals of August 2003.

“The causes of the uneven distribution of deaths in the sunshine have to be analyzed,” stated Professor Majid Ezzati, in the School of Public Health at Imperial, who brought the study. “It may be because of more susceptible people being concentrated in certain areas, or it may be associated with variations in the community level, like quality of health care, that need government action.

“We might expect that individuals in areas that are usually warmer could be more resilient, simply because they adapt by setting up ac for instance. These results reveal that this isn’t the situation in Britain.

“While global warming is really a global phenomenon, resilience and vulnerability to the effects are highly local. A lot of things can be achieved in the local level to lessen the outcome of warm spells, like notifying the general public and planning emergency services. More information about which towns are most in danger from high temps will help inform these methods.”

The scientists received funding in the Scientific Research Council, Public Health England, and also the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Imperial Biomedical Research Center.

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Over demanding market affects fisheries greater than global warming

Fisheries that depend on short existence species, for example shrimp or sardine, happen to be more impacted by global warming, as this phenomenon affects chlorophyll production, that is vital for phytoplankton, the primary food for species.

Revealed through the research "Socioeconomic Impact from the global change within the fishing assets from the Mexican Off-shore" headed by Ernesto A. Ch?vez Ortiz, in the National Polytechnic Institute (IPN).

Work carried out in the Interdisciplinary Center of Marine Sciences (CICIMAR) in the IPN, signifies that within the last 5 years there has been no "spectacular" changes due to global warming, what's affected the fishing assets more may be the over demanding market.

"Globally, an excellent area of the fishing assets has been used to the maximum capacity, several have overpass its regrowth capabilities and therefore are overexploited" Ch?vez Ortiz highlights.

The specialist at CICIMAR particulars the research comprised in exploratory weather and fisheries analysis, and confirmed what's been without effort stated for some time: many of the variability within the fishing is because of global warming, however , evidence had not been found to prove it.

"Within the research we found a obvious and objective method to show it: we required historic data from FAO regarding fisheries, available since 1950, in comparison it towards the data of weather variability and located high correlations.

Change designs were recognized, for instance, whilst in the 70's the sardine production increases, within the eighties it decreases substandard levels, meanwhile shrimp fishing elevated excellent but decreased within the 90's.

By doing this, climate changes were recognized within the mid 70's and late eighties that affected the fishing of sardine and shrimp within the Mexican Gulf Of Mexico, possibly due to El Ni?o. Within the particular situation from the shrimp, it effects are based on a port water in the region for instance, when there is a good pouring down rain season, you will see a rise in the crustacean production, that is reduced if this does not rain.

The investigator at CICIMAR clarifies the research into the fisheries, examined within the recommendations of the project, used of the simulation model that enables to judge optimal exploitation methods, possible alternation in the biomass from the examined assets, along with the long-term results of global warming, like cyclones, and hang them apart of individuals triggered through the concentration of the fishing.

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NASA-JAXA launch pursuit to measure global rain, snow

The Worldwide Precipitation Measurement (GPM) Core Observatory, some pot Earth-watching mission between NASA and also the Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA), thundered into space at 10:37 a.m. PST Thursday, February. 27 (3:37 a.m. JST Friday, February. 28) from Japan.

The 4-ton spacecraft released aboard a Japanese H-IIA rocket from Tanegashima Space Focus on Tanegashima Island in southern Japan. The GPM spacecraft separated in the rocket 16 minutes after launch, in an altitude of 247 miles (398 kilometers). The photo voltaic arrays used ten minutes after spacecraft separation, to energy the spacecraft.

"With this particular launch, we've taken another giant leap in supplying the planet by having an unparalleled picture in our planet's snow and rain,Inch stated NASA Administrator Charles Bolden. "GPM will let us better understand our ever-altering climate, improve predictions of utmost weather occasions like surges, and assist decision makers all over the world to higher manage water assets."

The GPM Core Observatory will require a significant part of enhancing upon the abilities from the Tropical Rain fall Measurement Mission (TRMM), some pot NASA-JAXA mission released in 1997 but still functioning. While TRMM measured precipitation within the tropics, the GPM Core Observatory grows the policy area in the Arctic Circle towards the Antarctic Circle. GPM may also have the ability to identify light rain and snowfall, a significant supply of available freshwater in certain regions.

To higher understand Earth's climate and weather cycles, the GPM Core Observatory will collect information that unifies and enhances data from an worldwide constellation of existing and future satellites by mapping global precipitation every three hrs.

"It's incredibly exciting to determine this spacecraft launch," stated GPM Project Manager Art Azarbarzin of NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt, Md. "This is actually the moment the GPM team has worked toward since 2006. The GPM Core Observatory may be the product of the devoted team at Goddard, JAXA yet others worldwide. Soon, as GPM starts to gather precipitation findings, we'll see these instruments at the office supplying real-time information for that researchers concerning the intensification of storms, rain fall in remote areas and a whole lot.Inch

The GPM Core Observatory was put together at Goddard and it is the biggest spacecraft ever built in the center. It carries two instruments to determine rain and snowfall. The GPM Microwave Imager, supplied by NASA, will estimate precipitation extremes from heavy to light rain, and snowfall by carefully calculating the moment levels of energy naturally released by precipitation. The Twin-frequency Precipitation Radar (DPR), produced by JAXA using the National Institute of knowledge and Communication Technology, Tokyo, japan, uses released radar pulses to create detailed dimensions of three-dimensional rain fall structure and intensity, permitting researchers to enhance estimations of methods much water the precipitation holds. Mission procedures and information systems is going to be handled from Goddard.

"We have a great deal to find out about how snow and rain systems behave within the bigger Earth system," stated GPM Project Researcher Gail Skofronick-Jackson of Goddard. "Using the advanced instruments around the GPM Core Observatory, we'll have the very first time frequent unified global findings of all of precipitation, from the rain inside your backyard to storms developing within the oceans towards the falling snow adding to water assets."

"A year greater than a decade developing DPR using Japanese technology, the very first radar available wide,Inch stated Masahiro Kojima, JAXA GPM/DPR project manager. "I expect GPM to create important new recent results for society by enhancing weather predictions and conjecture of utmost occasions for example typhoons and flooding."

One half-dozen researchers from NASA's Jet Space Laboratory, Pasadena, Calif., participate around the GPM science team, adding towards the mission's precipitation science, developing step-by-step methods for calculating precipitation data, and calibrating observatory sensors. JPL's Airborne 2-frequency Precipitation Radar may be the airborne simulator for that GPM Core Observatory's DPR and it is adding to GPM ground validation activities.

"The JPL team includes a lengthy good reputation for developing precipitation radar systems and processing techniques and aided in determining the first GPM mission concept," stated GPM science team member Joe Turk of JPL. "We can also be helping define the idea and advanced precipitation/cloud radar instrument for GPM's planned follow-on mission. We anticipate the greater complete and accurate picture of worldwide precipitation that GPM will enable."

The GPM Core Observatory may be the to begin NASA's five Earth science missions starting this season. Having a number of satellites and ambitious airborne and ground-based observation campaigns, NASA monitors Earth's vital signs from land, air and space. NASA also evolves new methods to observe and focus Earth's interconnected natural systems with lengthy-term data records and computer analysis tools to higher observe how our world is altering. The company freely shares this excellent understanding using the global community and works together with institutions within the U . s . States and round the world that lead to understanding and safeguarding the house planet.

To learn more about NASA's Earth science activities this season, visit: http://world wide web.nasa.gov/earthrightnow

To learn more about GPM, visit: http://world wide web.nasa.gov/gpm and http://world wide web.jaxa.jp/projects/sitting/gpm/index_e.html

The California Institute of Technology handles JPL for NASA.

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Connecting storms to global warming a 'distraction', say experts

Hooking up extreme weather to global warming throws from the necessity to safeguard society from high-impact weather occasions which is constantly happen regardless of human-caused global warming, say experts.

Writing within the journal Weather, Climate and Society, the College of Manchester scientists reason that cutting green house gas pollutants, while essential to reducing humanity's longer-term impact in the world, won't eliminate violent storms, tornadoes or flooding and also the damage they cause.

The authors claim that developing greater resilience to extreme weather occasions should be given greater priority when the socioeconomic impact of storms, like individuals which have ravaged Britain this winter, will be reduced.

Professor David Schultz, among the authors from the guest editorial, stated: "Among the lengthy-term results of global warming is frequently predicted to become a rise in the intensity and frequency of numerous high-impact weather occasions, so reducing green house gas pollutants is frequently seen is the reaction to the issue.

"Reducing humanity's effect on our world ought to be went after ought to be emergency, but more emphasis should also go on being resilient to individual weather occasions, because this year's storms in great britan have so devastatingly proven."

Previously, the authors, society taken care of immediately weather problems with requires greater resilience, but awareness of humanmade global warming has provided climate timescales (decades and centuries) much better importance than weather timescales (days and years)

Schultz, a professor of synoptic meteorology, and co-author Dr Vladimir Jankovic, a science historian specialising in climate and weather, the short-term, large variability from year upon year in high-impact weather causes it to be difficult, otherwise impossible, to attract conclusions concerning the correlation to longer-term global warming.

They reason that while large public opportunities in dams and ton defences, for instance, must take into account the options of methods weather might change later on, this will not prevent short-term thinking to deal with more immediate vulnerability to inevitable high-impact weather occasions.

"Staying away from construction in floodplains, applying strong building codes, and growing readiness could make society more resilient to extreme weather occasions," stated Dr Jankovic. "But adding to however , finding money for recovery is simpler than investing on prevention, even when the expense of recovery tend to be greater."

This prejudice, the authors, includes a inclination to decrease the political dedication for preventative measures against extreme weather, no matter whether or not they are triggered or intensified by humanmade influences. Yet, steps come to safeguard society in the weather can safeguard the earth too, they argue.

Dr Jankovic stated: "Enhancing predicting, growing readiness or building better infrastructure can increase resilience and lower carbon-dioxide pollutants. For instance, greening communities or painting roofs lighter colours will both lessen the urban warmth-island effect and lower carbon-dioxide pollutants through reduced air-conditioning costs, while making metropolitan areas more resistant against storm damage would cut back pollutants produced from repairing devastated areas."

Professor Schultz added: "Connecting high-impact weather occasions with global warming could be annoying perpetuating the concept that reducing green house gases could be enough to lessen progressively vulnerable world populations, in our opinion, only atmosphere the general public and policy-makers regarding the socio-economic inclination towards extreme weather.

"Without or with minimization, there's no quick-fix, single-cause solution for that problem of human vulnerability to socio-environment change, nor what is the reasonable prospect of attenuating high-impact weather. Addressing such issues will give the planet an chance to build up a 2-pronged policy in climate security, reducing longer-term climate risks along with stopping shorter-term weather problems."

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Global warming will not reduce deaths in the winter months, British study concludes

New information released today finds that global warming is not likely to lessen britain's excess winter dying rate as formerly thought. The research is released within the journal Character Global Warming and debunks the broadly held view that warmer winters will cut the amount of deaths normally seen in the very coldest season.

Examining data in the past six decades, scientists in the College of Exeter and College College London (UCL) checked out the way the winter dying rate has transformed with time, and just what factors affected it.

They discovered that from 1951 to 1971, the amount of cold winter days was strongly associated with dying rates, while from 1971 to 1991, both the amount of cold days and flu activity were accountable for elevated dying rates. However, their analysis demonstrated that from 1991 to 2011, flu activity alone was the primary cause in year upon year variation in the winter months mortality.

Lead investigator Dr Philip Staddon stated "We have proven that the amount of cold days inside a winter no more describes its quantity of excess deaths. Rather, the primary reason for year upon year variation in the winter months mortality in recent decades continues to be flu."

They claim that this reduced outcomes of the amount of cold days and deaths inside a winter could be described by enhancements in housing, healthcare, earnings along with a greater understanding of the potential risks from the cold.

As global warming progresses, the United kingdom will probably experience growing weather extremes, including more less foreseeable periods of utmost cold. The study highlights that, despite a generally warmer winter, a far more volatile climate could really result in elevated amounts of winter deaths connected with global warming, instead of less.

Dr Staddon thinks the findings have important implications for policy:

"Both policy makers and health care professionals have, for a while, assumed that the potential take advantage of global warming is a decrease in deaths seen over winter. We have proven this is not likely to be. Efforts to combat winter mortality because of cold spells shouldn't be lessened, and individuals against flu and flu-like ailments ought to be maintained."

Co-author, Prof Hugh Montgomery of UCL stated:

"Global warming seems unlikely to reduce winter dying rates. Indeed, it might substantially increase them by driving extreme weather occasions and greater variation in the winter months temps. Action must automatically get to prevent this happening."

Co-author, Prof Michael Depledge of College of Exeter School Of Medicine stated:

"Studies from the kind we've carried out provide information that's key for policymakers and political figures planning to handle the impacts of global warming. We are hopeful that the significance of this problem is going to be understood, to ensure that matters of health insurance and environment security could be worked with seriously and effectively."

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Toyota, Honda global output halved after quake (AFP)

TOKYO (AFP) – Japanese auto giants Toyota and Honda saw global production halved in April as the March 11 earthquake and tsunami ravaged supply chains, the companies said Friday.

Honda reported a 52.9 percent year-on-year drop in worldwide production and an 81.0 percent slump in domestic output, while Toyota said global production was down 48.1 percent.

The quake and the resulting tsunami shattered component supply chains and crippled electricity-generating facilities, including a nuclear power plant at the centre of an ongoing atomic emergency.

Amid power and parts shortages, Toyota had announced production disruptions domestically and in the United States, Europe, China and Australia because of the crisis, temporarily slowing output or shutting plants.

The company announced a year-on-year drop of 15.4 percent in its global sales figures for April.

Honda, which was forced to temporarily suspend all production at its Japanese sites, said domestic sales were down 46.3 percent on year while exports dropped 76.2 percent.

"The figures are pretty much along the lines of what we had expected. The months of March and April are the most severely hit by the disaster," Ryoichi Saito, an auto analyst at Mizuho Investors Securities, said.

"In April, we saw auto plants operating for only about half the month, about half the capacity."

Many component manufacturers that are key to auto production are based in the worst-hit regions of Japan, their facilities damaged by the 9.0 magnitude earthquake or inundated by the giant wave that followed.

While most plants resumed production by mid-April, operations remain well below capacity and analysts warn parts shortages could go on for months, with the threat of summer power shortages also casting a shadow.

Honda said it expected production volume in Asia and Oceania to start picking up in July, the carmaker's Asian Honda Motor Co. unit said.

The company said in a statement it expects its production in Asia and Oceania "will be normalised during the August to September time period at almost all auto plants in the region", Dow Jones Newswires reported.

The picture looked less gloomy for Nissan Motor Co., however, which makes up Japan's big three automakers alongside Toyota and Honda.

The company said global production in April had decreased 22.4 percent on-year but announced a 4.4 percent rise in worldwide sales, marking an all-time record for the month of April.

"Production is picking up earlier than expected, and I expect auto production will recover considerably in June," Saito told AFP. "Auto part makers for Toyota have also said their production will come to about 90 percent of what it should be by June. I'd say production bottomed out in April and will start recovering in May."

Nissan plans to manufacture around 98,000 vehicles in Japan next month, the Nikkei daily said, nearly unchanged from the year-earlier 100,000 or so. And its projected June-November output of roughly 560,000 units is only slightly lower than the 590,000 units of a year earlier.

Total domestic auto output in fiscal 2011 is on course to reach around eight million units, the report said, just 10 percent off the figure for 2010.

The woes of Japan's automakers have been in stark contrast to overseas rivals. South Korea's Hyundai last month posted a 47 percent rise in first quarter net profit on higher prices and strong demand.

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