Remote realizing moisture model could aid maqui berry farmers

Global maqui berry farmers might get better decision-making help as unique features are created to North Alabama soil moisture modeling research being carried out by an atmospheric science doctorate student in the College of Alabama in Huntsville (UAH).

The models indicate just how much added moisture could be necessary for confirmed area versus historic data to attain various crop yields, plus they could help with making costly infrastructure opportunities by assisting to determine their economic stability.

"The key factor that I wish to stress is this fact isn't a predictive model, it's a decision-support model. It will help maqui berry farmers and authorities make choices according to historic weather designs," states doctorate student Vikalp Mishra. In places that water is an issue, irrigation infrastructure could be costly and also the model may help to find out its economic affordability.

Mishra was the main author of the paper together with his consultant and UAH connect professor of atmospheric science Dr. John Mecikalski, UAH Earth System Science Center principle investigator James Cruise, and scientists in the College of Maryland-College Park and also the U.S. Dept. of Agriculture's Hydrology and Remote Realizing Laboratory in Beltsville, Md.

The model uses satellite data to look for the quantity of soil moisture present after which estimations yields according to available moisture. Water is in the center of almost all farming choices. It affects the crop cultivar, the range of seed grown, the total amount and kind of fertilizer needed and the quantity of irrigation needed to make a given weight of grain.

Scientists start by using satellite derived evapotranspiration estimations at thermal infrared bands to deduce the quantity of moisture being happened by plants. Moisture data come from the Geostationary Operational Environment Satellites (GOES). GOES data are put in to the Atmosphere-Land Exchange Inverse (ALEXI) model, formerly produced by Dr. Mecikalski yet others. The ALEXI model computes the evapotranspiration rates. The soil moisture is proportional towards the evapotranspiration and also the number of canopy cover to ensure that the quantity of moisture within the soil to the rooting depth could be deduced.

"After we obtain that soil moisture estimation, then your next factor would be to classify the we acquired into surface values and root zone values," states Mishra. The quantity of vegetative cover influences individuals values. If there's more plant life, there's more transpiration, meaning moisture has been attracted in the soil within the root zone from the plants, he states. Less vegetative cover means the thought moisture is evaporating in a greater rate in the top layer of soil.

Plant life cover is believed while using Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) scientific instrument released into Earth orbit by NASA in 1999 aboard Terra (Eos 550d AM) as well as in 2002 aboard the Aqua (Eos 550d PM) satellites.

"Whether it's greater than 30 % vegetative cover, then it's mainly root zone moisture because of transpiration," Mishra states.

Having the ability to sense the strata of ground moisture to that particular depth is essential, Mishra states, because different crops have different root depths and distributions for optimal water uptake.

Next a soil moisture profile is developed using the principle of maximum entropy model (POME), which utilizes prior specific data over some trial odds to find out which is easily the most likely outcome. It makes sense input in to the Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT) program, a computer program program that comprises crop simulation models for more than 28 crops and it has been being used in excess of 3 decades around the globe. The model includes all inputs in to the crop, including weather, plant spacing, cultivar, fertilizer, soil type and fertility, yet others.

Mishra is applicable as numerous quantified inputs about crops and climate conditions easy to this model, except one: precipitation.

At this time, he inputs his soil moisture profiles and after that he is able to model yields in kilos per hectare depending on how much soil moisture can be obtained towards the crop. The model can offer daily estimations of grain weights in addition to water and fertilizer needs inside a growing period.

Mishra's North Alabama sensor research, completed in addition to USDA's Hydrology and Remote Realizing Laboratory, covered a ten-square-kilometer area that incorporated dry land-captive-raised crops depending on rain fall only, irrigated crops, different crop types, pasture and fallow land. The information were in comparison having a decade of USDA Farming Census yield data.

"What we should found was our soil moisture dimensions and believed crop yields were considerably comparable with county averaged National Farming Statistics Service yield data and ground-based precipitation-caused DSSAT results," Mishra states. His doctorate research is centered on attempting to target the section of measurement more carefully, reducing it from 100 square kilometers to at least one square kilometer, therefore the results could be more encouraging from the choices of person maqui berry farmers within an area.

The job can be especially valuable for maqui berry farmers and government authorities within the more arid nations around the globe, states collaborator Cruise, the key investigator from UAH's Earth System Science Center.

"The primary impetus ended up being to run this model in places that you do not have lots of precipitation to begin with,Inch Cruise states. "You'll be able to determine simply how much irrigation along with other inputs you might have to obtain a given result." However the ongoing try to target the regions of measurement could cause a web-based database that maqui berry farmers in Alabama and elsewhere can use to assist them to make choices to handle variability in annual rain fall, he states.

"You will find potentially a variety of gradients," Cruise states, "in which the area being measured might be cut down."

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Offshore wind farms could tame severe weather before they achieve land

Computer simulations by Professor Mark Z. Jacobson have proven that offshore wind farms with 1000's of wind generators might have sapped the energy of three real-existence severe weather, considerably lowering their winds and associated storm surge, and perhaps stopping vast amounts of dollars in damages.

Within the last 24 years, Mark Z. Jacobson, a professor of civil and environment engineering at Stanford, continues to be creating a complex computer model to review polluting of the environment, energy, climate and weather. A current use of the model is to simulate the introduction of severe weather. Another is to figure out how much energy wind generators can extract from global wind power.

Considering these recent model studies and as a direct consequence of severe weather Sandy and Katrina, he stated, it had been natural to question: What can happen if your hurricane experienced a sizable variety of offshore wind generators? Would the power extraction because of the storm spinning the turbines' rotor blades slow the winds and diminish the hurricane, or would the hurricane destroy the turbines?

So he worked out developing the model further and replicating what could happen if your hurricane experienced a massive wind farm stretching many miles offshore and across the coast. Amazingly, he discovered that the wind generators could disrupt a hurricane enough to lessen peak wind speeds by as much as 92 miles per hour and reduce storm surge by as much as 79 percent.

The research, carried out by Jacobson, and Cristina Archer and Willett Kempton from the College of Delaware, was released online in Character Global Warming.

The scientists simulated three severe weather: Sandy and Isaac, which struck New You are able to and New Orleans, correspondingly, this year and Katrina, which devastated New Orleans in 2005.

"We discovered that when wind generators can be found, they decelerate the outer rotation winds of the hurricane," Jacobson stated. "This feeds to decrease wave height, which reduces movement of air toward the middle of the hurricane, growing the central pressure, which slows the winds from the entire hurricane and disappears it faster."

Within the situation of Katrina, Jacobson's model says a range of 78,000 wind generators from the coast of recent Orleans might have considerably destabilized the hurricane prior to it made landfall.

Within the computer model, when Hurricane Katrina arrived at land, its simulated wind speeds had decreased by 36-44 meters per second (between 80 and 98 miles per hour) and also the storm surge had decreased by as much as 79 percent.

For Hurricane Sandy, the model forecasted a wind speed reduction by 35-39 meters per second (between 78 and 87 miles per hour) and around 34 percent reduction in storm surge.

Jacobson appreciates that, within the U . s . States, there's been political potential to deal with setting up a couple of hundred offshore wind generators, not to mention hundreds of 1000's. But he thinks you will find two financial incentives that may motivate this type of change.

The first is the decrease in hurricane damage cost. Damage from severe severe weather, triggered by high winds and storm surge-related flooding, can encounter the vast amounts of dollars. Hurricane Sandy, for example, triggered roughly $82 billion in damage across three states.

Second, Jacobson stated, the wind generators would purchase themselves in the long run by producing normal electricity yet still time reducing polluting of the environment and climatic change, and supplying energy stability.

"The turbines may also reduce damage if your hurricane comes through," Jacobson stated. "These 4 elements, each by themselves, lessen the cost to society of offshore turbines and really should be adequate to motivate their development."

An alternate arrange for safeguarding seaside metropolitan areas involves building massive seawalls. Jacobson stated that although these might stop bad weather surge, they would not impact wind speed substantially. The price of these, too, is important, with estimations running between $10 billion and $40 billion per installation.

Current turbines can withstand wind speeds as high as 112 miles per hour, which is incorporated in the selection of a category two to three hurricane, Jacobson stated. His study indicates that the existence of massive turbine arrays will probably prevent hurricane winds from reaching individuals speeds.

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Statistics research could build consensus around climate forecasts

Huge levels of data associated with global warming are now being put together by research groups around the globe. Data from all of these numerous sources leads to di?erent climate forecasts hence, the necessity arises to mix information across data sets to reach a consensus regarding future climate estimations.

Inside a paper released last December within the SIAM Journal on Uncertainty Quantification, authors Matthew Heaton, Tamara Greasby, and Stephan Sain propose a record hierarchical Bayesian model that consolidates global warming information from observation-based data sets and climate models.

"The huge variety of climate data -- from reconstructions of historic temps and modern observational temperature dimensions to climate model forecasts of future climate -- appears to agree that global temps are altering," states author Matthew Heaton. "Where these data sources disagree, however, is as simple as just how much temps have transformed and therefore are likely to change later on. Our research seeks to mix a variety of causes of climate data, inside a statistically rigorous way, to find out a consensus how much temps are altering."

Utilizing a hierarchical model, the authors mix information from all of these various sources to acquire an ensemble estimate of current and future climate together with an connected way of measuring uncertainty. "Each climate databases gives us approximately just how much temps are altering. But, each databases also offers a diploma of uncertainty in the climate projection," states Heaton. "Record modeling is really a tool not only to obtain a consensus estimate of temperature change but additionally approximately our uncertainty relating to this temperature change."

The approach suggested within the paper combines information from observation-based data, general circulation models (GCMs) and regional climate models (RCMs).

Observation-based data sets, which focus mainly on local and regional climate, are acquired if you take raw climate dimensions from weather stations and using it to some power grid defined within the globe. This enables the ultimate data product to supply an aggregate way of measuring climate instead of being limited to individual weather data sets. Such data sets are limited to current and historic periods of time. Another supply of information associated with observation-based data sets are reanalysis data takes hold which statistical model predictions and weather station findings are combined right into a single gridded renovation of climate within the globe.

GCMs are computer models which capture physical processes regulating the climate and oceans to simulate the response of temperature, precipitation, along with other meteorological variables in various situations. While a GCM portrayal of temperature wouldn't be accurate to some given day, these models give fairly good estimations for lengthy-term average temps, for example 30-year periods, which carefully match observed data. A large benefit of GCMs over observed and reanalyzed information is that GCMs can simulate climate systems later on.

RCMs are utilized to simulate climate on the specific region, instead of global simulations produced by GCMs. Since climate inside a specific region is impacted by the relaxation of Earth, atmospheric conditions for example temperature and moisture in the region's boundary are believed by utilizing other sources for example GCMs or reanalysis data.

By mixing information from multiple observation-based data sets, GCMs and RCMs, the model acquires a quote and way of measuring uncertainty for that climate, temporal trend, along with the variability of periodic average temps. The model was utilized to evaluate average summer time and winter temps for that Off-shore Southwest, Prairie and North Atlantic regions (observed in the look above) -- regions that represent three distinct environments. The idea is climate models would behave in a different way for all these regions. Data from each region was considered individually to ensure that the model might be fit to every region individually.

"Our knowledge of just how much temps are altering is reflected in most the information open to us," states Heaton. "For instance, one databases might claim that temps are growing by 2 levels Celsius while another source indicates temps are growing by 4 levels. So, will we believe a couple-degree increase or perhaps a 4-degree increase? The reply is most likely 'neither' because mixing data sources together indicates that increases would probably be approximately 2 and 4 levels. The thing is that that not one databases has all of the solutions. And, only by mixing a variety of causes of climate data shall we be really in a position to evaluate just how much we believe temps are altering."

Some previous such work concentrates on mean or average values, the authors within this paper acknowledge that climate within the larger sense includes versions between years, trends, earnings and extreme occasions. Therefore, the hierarchical Bayesian model used here concurrently views the typical, linear trend and interannual variability (variation between years). Many previous models also assume independence between climate models, whereas this paper makes up about parallels shared by various models -- for example physical equations or fluid dynamics -- and fits between data sets.

"While our work is a great initial step in mixing a variety of causes of climate information, we still are unsuccessful for the reason that we still omit many viable causes of climate information," states Heaton. "In addition, our work concentrates on increases/decreases in temps, but similar analyses are necessary to estimate consensus alterations in other meteorological variables for example precipitation. Finally, hopefully to grow our analysis from regional temps (say, over just part of the U.S.) to global temps."

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Ancient stormy weather: World's earliest environment could revise bronze age chronology

An inscription on the 3,500-year-old stone block from Egypt might be among the world's earliest weather reviews -- and may provide new evidence concerning the chronology of occasions within the ancient Middle East.

A brand new translation of the 40-line inscription around the 6-feet-tall calcite block known as the Tempest Stela describes rain, darkness and "heaven finding yourself in storm without cessation, even louder compared to cries from the public."

Two students in the College of Chicago's Oriental Institute believe the unusual weather designs referred to around the slab were the effect of a massive volcano explosion at Thera -- the current-day island of Santorini within the Mediterranean And Beyond. Because volcano eruptions may have a common effect on weather, the Thera explosion likely might have triggered significant interruptions in Egypt.

The brand new translation indicates the Egyptian pharaoh Ahmose ruled at any given time nearer to the Thera eruption than formerly thought -- a discovering that could change scholars' knowledge of a vital juncture in history as Bronze Age empires realigned. The study in the Oriental Institute's Nadine Moeller and Robert Ritner seems early in the year problem from the Journal of Near Eastern Studies.

The Tempest Stela goes back towards the reign from the pharaoh Ahmose, the very first pharaoh from the 18th Empire. His rule marked the start of the brand new Kingdom, a period when Egypt's energy arrived at its height. The block was discovered in pieces in Thebes, modern Luxor, where Ahmose ruled.

When the stela does describe the aftermath from the Thera catastrophe, the right dating from the stela itself and Ahmose's reign, presently regarded as about 1550 B.C., could really be 30-50 years earlier.

"This will be significant to students from the ancient Near East and eastern Mediterranean, generally since the chronology that archaeologists use is dependant on the lists of Egyptian pharaohs, which new information could adjust individuals dates," stated Moeller, assistant professor of Egyptian the archaeology of gortyn in the Oriental Institute, who is an expert in research on ancient urbanism and chronology.

In The Year 2006, radiocarbon testing of the olive tree hidden under volcanic residue placed the date from the Thera eruption at 1621-1605 B.C. So far, the ancient evidence for that date from the Thera eruption appeared at odds using the radiocarbon dating, described Oriental Institute postdoctoral scholar Felix Hoeflmayer, that has analyzed the chronological implications associated with the eruption. However, when the date of Ahmose's reign is sooner than formerly thought, the resulting change in chronology "might solve the entire problem," Hoeflmayer stated.

The modified dating of Ahmose's reign can often mean the dates of other occasions within the ancient Near East fit together more realistically, students stated. For instance, it realigns the dates of important occasions like the fall from the energy from the Canaanites and also the collapse from the Babylonian Empire, stated David Schloen, connect professor within the Oriental Institute and Near Eastern Languages

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Global warming could increase thunderstorm severity, climatologist forecasts

This spring might be a lot more like a lion than the usual lamb. John Harrington Junior. is really a synoptic climatologist and professor of geography at Kansas Condition College who studies weather occasions, how frequently they occur and also the conditions once they happened. He states global warming might be growing the seriousness of storms.

"Among the large concerns I've would be that the warmer atmospheric temps will drive a bit more evaporation from the sea and also the Gulf," Harrington stated. "One thing that can help storms be more powerful is getting more moisture, to ensure that added moisture could raise the height and harshness of a tall cumulonimbus thunderstorm cloud."

Harrington stated the additional moisture will make storms more powerful and much more potent later on.

This season could also bring a general change in climate conditions because of El Ni?o, that the U . s . States hasn’t experienced for around 2 yrs. El Ni?o warms up the temperature from the Gulf Of Mexico, which produces cooler and wetter conditions for that West Coast. Harrington states there's a great possibility El Ni?o will arrive this fall entering winter.

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Winds could fan deadly Calif. wildfire

Frank Bellino, The Press-Enterprise/AP

Residents help battle the fire in Murrieta, Calif. Firefighters say it's too soon to determine the gender of the body found in a burned home in the Campo area on Monday.

Frank Bellino, The Press-Enterprise/AP

Residents help battle the fire in Murrieta, Calif. Firefighters say it's too soon to determine the gender of the body found in a burned home in the Campo area on Monday.

CAMPO, Calif. (AP) â?? A fire that killed an elderly man who refused to evacuate and burned 20 homes in rural San Diego County was smoldering Tuesday, but gusty afternoon winds could push it back to life, authorities said.

Nearly 1,000 firefighters planned an all-out effort to surround the blaze, which continued to threaten about 25 homes in the rural community of Tierra del Sol near the U.S.-Mexican border, said fire spokesman Andy Menshek. Residents of two other small communities were allowed to return home earlier.

About 80 residents remained under evacuation orders.

"That is the one remaining evacuated area," Menshek said. "That's out highest priority today â?¦ we have propane tanks, downed power lines and a lot of hotspots to mop up."

The fire, which has burned nearly 4 1/2 square miles of hilly brush land since Sunday, was 55 percent contained.

Although no active flame was showing, winds began picking up Tuesday morning and gusts of up to 40 mph could hit in the afternoon, Menshek said.

"If we get one ember over the line, the fire could take off," he said.

On Monday, the body of an elderly man was retrieved from a burned home in Tierra del Sol. Neighbors reported the man missing when they saw his only vehicle parked at the home, authorities said. His identity was not immediately released, but neighbors told U-T San Diego he was 82 and had one leg.

Reverse 911 calls notifying homeowners of the evacuation order were made by the county sheriff's department. Neighbors said the man decided to remain.

"He felt that he was going to be OK if he stayed," sheriff's Lt. Rose Kurupas told the newspaper.

"He chose to stay and that's sad," Menshek said. "That's why we issue these evacuations."

Other blazes in the West remained active, blanketing some communities in eastern Washington state with smoke. The air quality in many Wenatchee and Cashmere areas was deemed either "hazardous" or "unhealthy" by state officials.

Authorities there updated the sizes of two of the state's largest fires after more accurate mapping and burnouts to create fire lines, officials said. The Wenatchee complex of fires was reported at 82 square miles, while the Table Mountain fire had burned nearly 57 square miles.

Crews also gained ground on a 5 1/2-square-mile fire in Montana's Musselshell County, allowing residents to return to about 50 homes southeast of Roundup. That blaze was human-caused and under investigation.

Copyright 2012 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed.For more information about reprints & permissions, visit our FAQ's. To report corrections and clarifications, contact Standards Editor Brent Jones. For publication consideration in the newspaper, send comments to letters@usatoday.com. Include name, phone number, city and state for verification. To view our corrections, go to corrections.usatoday.com.

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Winds could fan deadly Calif. wildfire

Frank Bellino, The Press-Enterprise/AP

Residents help battle the fire in Murrieta, Calif. Firefighters say it's too soon to determine the gender of the body found in a burned home in the Campo area on Monday.

Frank Bellino, The Press-Enterprise/AP

Residents help battle the fire in Murrieta, Calif. Firefighters say it's too soon to determine the gender of the body found in a burned home in the Campo area on Monday.

CAMPO, Calif. (AP) â?? A fire that killed an elderly man who refused to evacuate and burned 20 homes in rural San Diego County was smoldering Tuesday, but gusty afternoon winds could push it back to life, authorities said.

Nearly 1,000 firefighters planned an all-out effort to surround the blaze, which continued to threaten about 25 homes in the rural community of Tierra del Sol near the U.S.-Mexican border, said fire spokesman Andy Menshek. Residents of two other small communities were allowed to return home earlier.

About 80 residents remained under evacuation orders.

"That is the one remaining evacuated area," Menshek said. "That's out highest priority today â?¦ we have propane tanks, downed power lines and a lot of hotspots to mop up."

The fire, which has burned nearly 4 1/2 square miles of hilly brush land since Sunday, was 55 percent contained.

Although no active flame was showing, winds began picking up Tuesday morning and gusts of up to 40 mph could hit in the afternoon, Menshek said.

"If we get one ember over the line, the fire could take off," he said.

On Monday, the body of an elderly man was retrieved from a burned home in Tierra del Sol. Neighbors reported the man missing when they saw his only vehicle parked at the home, authorities said. His identity was not immediately released, but neighbors told U-T San Diego he was 82 and had one leg.

Reverse 911 calls notifying homeowners of the evacuation order were made by the county sheriff's department. Neighbors said the man decided to remain.

"He felt that he was going to be OK if he stayed," sheriff's Lt. Rose Kurupas told the newspaper.

"He chose to stay and that's sad," Menshek said. "That's why we issue these evacuations."

Other blazes in the West remained active, blanketing some communities in eastern Washington state with smoke. The air quality in many Wenatchee and Cashmere areas was deemed either "hazardous" or "unhealthy" by state officials.

Authorities there updated the sizes of two of the state's largest fires after more accurate mapping and burnouts to create fire lines, officials said. The Wenatchee complex of fires was reported at 82 square miles, while the Table Mountain fire had burned nearly 57 square miles.

Crews also gained ground on a 5 1/2-square-mile fire in Montana's Musselshell County, allowing residents to return to about 50 homes southeast of Roundup. That blaze was human-caused and under investigation.

Copyright 2012 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed.For more information about reprints & permissions, visit our FAQ's. To report corrections and clarifications, contact Standards Editor Brent Jones. For publication consideration in the newspaper, send comments to letters@usatoday.com. Include name, phone number, city and state for verification. To view our corrections, go to corrections.usatoday.com.

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'Daughter of Isaac' could hit Gulf Coast

It could be stormy deja vu all over again for the Gulf Coast this weekend, as remnants of Hurricane Isaac meander in the Gulf of Mexico just off Pensacola, Fla.

This area of disturbed weather "could become a tropical depression as early as Thursday, though Friday is more likely," says Weather Underground meteorologist Jeff Masters. He adds that the storm would probably make landfall along the Florida Panhandle or west coast of Florida on Sunday.

If the disturbance reaches the 39-mph threshold to become a named storm, the "daughter of Isaac" would be called Nadine.

Regardless of whether it becomes a named storm, bad weather is likely along the Gulf Coast for the next several days.

"Very humid air, combined with the disturbance, will unleash downpours and the potential for flash flooding from part of the Louisiana coast to the Florida Panhandle," reports AccuWeather meteorologist Alex Sosnowski.

Elsewhere in the tropics, Hurricane Leslie became the sixth hurricane of the season far out in the Atlantic Ocean on Wednesday afternoon, and could hit Bermuda over the weekend and eastern Canada next week, the National Hurricane Center reported. As of 5 p.m. Wednesday, Leslie had sustained winds of 75 mph, and was crawling to the north at 2 mph. The hurricane was 460 miles south southeast of Bermuda.

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While Midwest and East bake, Northwest could see some flakes

The unofficial start to summer will kick off with blazing heat across most of the eastern half of the country this Memorial Day weekend.

By Laurie Skrivan, AP

Lifeguard Sam McCabe of cleans off the water slide at an aquatic center in Maplewood, Mo., on Thursday in preparation for the Memorial Day holiday weekend. Residents across the Midwest and East might be dealing with record-setting heat during the holiday weekend.

By Laurie Skrivan, AP

Lifeguard Sam McCabe of cleans off the water slide at an aquatic center in Maplewood, Mo., on Thursday in preparation for the Memorial Day holiday weekend. Residents across the Midwest and East might be dealing with record-setting heat during the holiday weekend.

Temperatures will soar into the 90s as far north as Illinois. Chicago could hit 100 degrees on Sunday.

Elsewhere, a pesky, windy storm could ruin beach plans along the Southeast coast, while parts of the Northwest deal with light snow and chilly weather.

July in May: Hot and humid conditions will be the rule in the southern Plains, Mississippi Valley, Great Lakes, Ohio Valley, the Mid-Atlantic and the Southeast all three days of this holiday weekend. High temperatures in the 90s will be widespread from Texas to Maryland.

Cities such as Memphis, Louisville, Little Rock and St. Louis could all break temperature records. The Indianapolis 500 could be run in record heat on Sunday.

The worst of the heat isn't expected to make it into the Northeast and New England, however, where temperatures in the 70s and 80s are likely.

Soggy Southeast: Just like last weekend's Tropical Storm Alberto, another slow-moving storm will meander around the Southeast coast this weekend, potentially bringing bands of rain, gusty winds and rough surf. The storm may become tropical, and it would receive the name Beryl.

Other than the ruined outdoor plans, the rain will be welcome across the drought-plagued states of Florida, Georgia, and the Carolinas.

Wintry West, severe North: Some parts of the northern Rockies and Northwest will be in the 40s and 50s this weekend. Some snow is possible at higher elevations.

Severe storms could rattle the upper Midwest through the weekend as cooler air clashes with the unusual heat.

For more information about reprints & permissions, visit our FAQ's. To report corrections and clarifications, contact Standards Editor Brent Jones. For publication consideration in the newspaper, send comments to letters@usatoday.com. Include name, phone number, city and state for verification. To view our corrections, go to corrections.usatoday.com.

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'Monster' sunspot could hurl flares at Earth

A "monster sunspot" more than 60,000 miles wide could send some powerful solar flares toward Earth on Wednesday, NASA says.

The sunspot -- actually a group of four spots, each larger than Earth, and smaller spots -- emerged over the weekend and was spotted by the orbiting Solar Dynamics Observatory and amateur astronomers, Spaceweather.com reported (via Space.com). It tossed off a moderately strong M-class flare today, and is expected to follow up with even stronger flares, possibly even X class.

Sunspot AR 1476 is so big that a photographer in the Philippines captured it at sunset, without a solar telescope.

But Spaceweather offers potential sungazers this crucial warning:

Even when the sun is dimmed by clouds and haze, looking into the glare can damage your eyes. Looking through unfiltered optics is even worse. If you chose to photograph the low sun, use the camera's LCD screen for viewfinding.

Sunspots don't excite you? How about a pair of coronal mass ejections, or a dark, coronal hole that has opened in the sun's atmosphere and is hurling solar winds toward us? Good chance of strong geomagnetic activity, including auroras.

Want to know the space weather now? NOAA has it.

The latest sun show comes three weeks after the spectacular eruption captured by the solar orbiter.

BLOG:  Satellite captures giant eruption from sun today

NASA has a primer on the solar cycle.

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Climate change could increase storm surges

Last year's most devastating tropical system -- Hurricane Irene -- was considered by some experts to be a "100-year-event," a storm that comes around only once a century.

Irene lashed the East Coast in August, killing at least 45 people and leading to $7.6 billion in damages.

But a study out this week in Nature Climate Change says that due to global warming, these monster storms could make landfall more frequently, causing destructive storm surges every 3 to 20 years instead of once a century.

The lead author of the study was Ning Lin of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, who partnered with scientists at Princeton University to undertake the research.

Lin and her colleagues used computer models to simulate future hurricanes, looking at the impact of climate change on storm surges, with New York City as a case study. The team simulated tens of thousands of storms under different climate conditions.

Today, a "100-year storm" has a surge flood of about two meters, on average, in New York City. But with added greenhouse gas emissions due to the burning of fossil fuels, the computer models found that a two-meter surge flood would instead occur once every three to 20 years.

Lin says that knowing the frequency of storm surges may help urban and coastal planners design seawalls and other protective structures.

While the number of hurricanes globally may or may not increase due to global warming, some scientists say that the ones that do form could be more intense than they would be otherwise.

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Weather pattern could fuel more Ala. tornadoes

HUNTSVILLE, Ala. (AP) – This isn't a tornado warning, nor is the siren about to go screaming across the Tennessee Valley.

Dusty Compton, AP

A tornado roars through Tuscaloosa, Ala., in April 2011.

Dusty Compton, AP

A tornado roars through Tuscaloosa, Ala., in April 2011.

But the potential and the indicators are in place to make the upcoming spring tornado season a rocky one to ride out.

This follows a storm season in 2011 that saw several killer tornadoes lash Alabama.

John Christy, the state climatologist and director of the Earth System Science Center at the University of Alabama in Huntsville, cited the presence of the La Niña weather pattern as a cause for tornado apprehension this spring.

"In a La Niña type year, we tend to have more of these types of experiences with the trailing cold front creating the opportunity for those specific ingredients to provide the high contrast between cold and warm," Christy said.

"We are still in La Niña pattern. The long-range forecast for the spring is for warmer than usual. So that sets up an opportunity for a contrast along the way for these ingredients to come together."

If it happens, Kevin Knupp will be ready. A professor of atmospheric sciences at UAH who studies tornadoes, Knupp is working on research about the influence gravity waves have on tornadoes.

Knupp compared the gravity waves to the way water moves across a lake. As the gravity waves encounter a potential tornado, it can enhance the likelihood of a twister developing, according to Knupp's theory.

"When the waves intersect the storm, oftentimes - not always but most of the time - there is a response from the storm," Knupp said. "If there is an existing circulation, it intensifies that existing circulation there and if there is no tornado genesis, the formation of a tornado can occur at that time."

Watching gravity waves -- which is easier in a humid climate like Alabama -- can aid forecasters in identifying tornadoes. Knupp said the National Weather Service in Huntsville was already using gravity waves among its tools for distinguishing tornadoes.

"We can be more specific on when and where it might form," said Knupp, who is also studying the impact topography has on the intensity of tornadoes. "We want to do that because the false alarm rate on tornado warnings has been so high in this area."

So what's on the horizon for the Tennessee Valley as prime tornado season approaches in March and April?

"From a historical standpoint, Alabama gets about 60 tornadoes a year," Christy said. "Most of them come in the spring. So by any standard measure, you should be ready for something to happen this spring.

"With the way the global atmosphere circulation is set up (with the La Niña pattern), there is a bit more chance that number will be higher than average this spring."

The La Niña pattern, Christy and Knupp said, brings cold air from the Pacific Ocean into close proximity with warm air from the Gulf of Mexico. Christy described it as an "opportunity" for the two air masses to "collide" over Alabama and that's when the atmosphere becomes unstable.

But Christy downplayed any seeming increase in tornadoes in recent years.

"We still have just as many tornadoes as we've ever had," he said. "We just put more stuff in their way to hit. So the damage from tornadoes will just continue to rise."

Of course, weather experts are loathe to look farther into the future than absolutely necessary. But history, in a sense, can be a crystal ball with a peek at what's to come.

"If it happened before, it'll happen again and probably worse," Christy said. "That's my general rule of climate."

Said Knupp, "I remember that word for word and that's what I tell my students."

Copyright 2012 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed.For more information about reprints & permissions, visit our FAQ's. To report corrections and clarifications, contact Standards Editor Brent Jones. For publication consideration in the newspaper, send comments to letters@usatoday.com. Include name, phone number, city and state for verification. To view our corrections, go to corrections.usatoday.com.

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New Forecast: Sun's 'Superstorms' Could Doom Satellites (SPACE.com)

Magnetic storms set off by the sun could pose a bigger threat than thought to weather, communication, military and other satellites close to Earth, with a potentially devastating economic impact, scientists suggest.

In the new study, researchers found that solar radiation can energize a belt of high-energy particles that surrounds Earth more dramatically than previously believed.

The study focused on the possible effects of a particularly strong magnetic storm on the Van Allen radiation belts, the dangerous rings of high-energy particles that girdle the Earth. The belts are split into two distinct zones. The outer belt, which is made up of electrons, reaches from about 15,800 to 31,600 miles (25,500 to 51,000 kilometers) above the surface, while the inner belt, which consists of a mix of electrons and protons, reaches from about 4,000 to 8,000 miles (6,400 to 12,800 km) above. [Stunning Photos of Solar Flares & Sun Storms]

Scientists had known the outer belt could become far more intense during geomagnetic storms caused by high-energy particles spewed by the sun, such as the storm that supercharged Earth's northern lights display Monday night (Sept. 26). However, they have long thought such storms do not affect the inner belt.

Now computer simulations suggest that during a "superstorm" — which has occurred in the past and is likely to recur in the future ? the electrons in the inner belt, too, could become energized. Near-Earth radiation could then remain dramatically more intense for several years afterward.

"The increase in radiation in the inner zone may last for up to a decade and continue damaging satellites for years after a very strong storm," study lead author Yuri Shprits, a space physicist at the University of California, Los Angeles, told SPACE.com.

This radiation would damage satellites in that zone and potentially cut their lifetimes by five-sixths or more. [Related: Space Radiation to Rise for Astronauts, Airline Passengers]

"It would not destroy all satellites at once," Shprits said. "However, at least according to our calculations, a very strong storm can increase the radiation dose in the inner zone by a factor of 10, and within a few years we may lose a significant portion of the satellites that traverse the inner zone."

In terms of new strategies that might be needed to protect satellite systems, "it's hard to say," Shprits said. "First of all, we need to estimate risks and estimate cost. If cost is too high, we may want to accept the risks and start getting ready to replenish the fleet in the case of such event."

"There are a number of rather expensive strategies that can be used to mitigate the risk, including redundancy in electronics and increased shielding," he added. "Zero risk means infinite cost."

Two missions to study the radiation belts are planned for 2012, Shprits noted: NASA's Radiation Belt Storm Probe will observe radiation belts in the equatorial plane, while Moscow State University's LOMONOSOV mission, with UCLA-built instruments on board, will observe radiation belts at low altitudes.

The scientists detailed their findings online in the Aug. 25 issue of the journal Space Weather.

Follow SPACE.com contributor Charles Q. Choi on Twitter @cqchoi. Follow SPACE.com for the latest in space science and exploration news on Twitter @Spacedotcom and on Facebook.

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Corps: Miss. River levee repairs could cost $1B (AP)

VICKSBURG, Miss. – A U.S. Army Corps of Engineers official says the cost of repairing Mississippi River levees that were damaged by this year's flooding could reach $1 billion, but it's not clear how much funding will be available.

Col. Thatch Shepard, deputy commander of the Mississippi River Division, told The Associated Press on Thursday that repairing the levee system could cost $700 million to $1 billion. The Corps budget for the fiscal year is $210 million, so Shepard said he's hoping Congress will approve supplemental funding.

There were preliminary signs this week that Congress is listening.

A House Appropriations panel on Wednesday approved $1 billion in emergency money to repair levees and other flood control projects damaged by flooding along the Mississippi and Missouri rivers. The Senate panel has yet to act.

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Pakistan warns floods could affect millions (AFP)

ISLAMABAD (AFP) – Pakistan warned on Wednesday that floods triggered by monsoon rains could affect millions more people this year, but claimed it was better prepared after a massive humanitarian crisis in 2010.

Last year, monsoon-triggered floods affected up to 21 million people and killed an estimated 1,750 people, causing an estimated $10 billion in losses and hammering the already depressed economy.

"There is a very little chance of flooding at the scale of last year and not more than two million people are likely to be affected by floods this year," said Zafar Qadir, the head of the national disaster management authority.

Last year's floods were the worst in Pakistani history.

"Even if there is flooding like last year, not more than six million people will be affected and we are prepared for that," Qadir said.

Qadir said normal annual rain fall in Pakistan is 137.5 millimetres and that this year a 10 percent decline is forecast, except in northern regions where a 10 percent increase is likely.

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More rain could worsen flooding along Missouri River (Reuters)

MISSOURI VALLEY, Iowa (Reuters) – Unwelcome waves of thunderstorms dumped rain and hail in eastern Nebraska and western Iowa on Thursday and heavy rain fell in Montana this week that could make historic Missouri River flooding worse.

At Omaha, Nebraska, the Missouri River reached 30.4 feet overnight, the second highest level behind the historic 1952 flood, and federal officials said a levee near Hamburg, Iowa, sustained a third partial breach on Thursday morning.

Iowa officials said they were preparing to close parts of Interstate 29 from Sioux City to Council Bluffs by late Friday, including a section that runs by Missouri Valley, Iowa.

"Nobody knows how much we'll get," said Jeff Ellis, owner of several gas stations/convenience stores in Missouri Valley, Iowa, and across the river in Blair, Nebraska, of the flooding. "Two feet, zero feet, nobody knows. It's all a guess."

Slow moving storms dumped rain across Missouri Valley on Thursday afternoon, causing street flooding along U.S. Highway 30, which runs east-west through town. At an Ellis station, 15 people soaked to the skin heaved hundreds of sandbags.

"I grabbed a bunch of college kids and high school guys from Blair, good guys," Ellis said, shaking his head as rain poured down. "We're going to sandbag the front and the side."

Rain is forecast for six of the next seven days in the area around Omaha, but more across the river in Iowa.

"I'm sure to those who are monitoring how much water is being stored and released from reservoirs ... I'm sure any rainfall would be considered a concern to them," said Jim Meyer, meteorologist in charge for the National Weather Service in the Omaha area.

Meyer said a lot of the precipitation has already been factored into forecasts given to federal officials.

On Wednesday, the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers added to planned water releases from the Fort Peck Dam in Montana for a second consecutive day due to hard rains.

About 260 miles of the Missouri have been closed to boaters from Gavins Point Dam south to where the borders of Iowa, Nebraska and Missouri meet. That is near where sandbags were dropped by helicopter to patch a partial levee breach Sunday that threatens the town of Hamburg, Iowa.

The Corps does not expect the levee repairs to withstand the full weight of the Missouri and contractors are racing to raise a secondary levee to protect Hamburg by June 14, when peak water releases are planned from Gavins Point.

HEAVY MONTANA RAINS

From Montana through Missouri residents have been shoring up levees along the Missouri River ahead of planned record water releases from its six major dams to relieve pressure on reservoirs swollen by heavy rains and melting snow.

Volunteers were placing sandbags around a Warren Distribution facility in Council Bluffs on Thursday across the Missouri River from Omaha.

The river has six dams from Fort Peck in Montana to Gavins Point on the South Dakota-Nebraska border. It runs freely below Gavins Point the more than 800 miles to the Mississippi River, making that dam a focus for people along the Lower Missouri.

All of the dams are planned to reach maximum release rates by about mid June and hold them through at least mid August.

Up to five inches of rain fell in parts of Montana from Monday through Wednesday, forcing the Corps to increase planned releases to 60,000 cubic feet per second at Fort Peck and warn that the rate could be increased from there.

The Montana rains forced fresh evacuations due to overflows on tributaries, including in Nashua downstream of Fort Peck, and in flood-battered Roundup on the Musselshell River.

The Corps said the Garrison Dam reservoir above Bismarck, North Dakota, had capacity to handle the additional releases from Fort Peck and has left intact its planned maximum releases at 150,000 cubic feet per second from the other five dams.

The Missouri River forms the northwest portion of the Mississippi River basin that stretches from Montana to western New York and funnels water south into the Gulf of Mexico.

Thousands of South Dakota and North Dakota residents have voluntarily left homes in communities protected by hastily built sandbag barriers and levees ahead of peak releases.

On Thursday, officials cautioned that the sustained record flows could still threaten levees in the Dakotas now holding.

Corps officials also have warned that more breaches like the one near Hamburg are likely given the varying strengths of the flood protections and the height, speed and duration of planned releases of water from reservoirs.

(Additional reporting by David Bailey in Minneapolis, James Kelleher in Chicago and Laura Zuckerman in Salmon, Idaho; Editing by Greg McCune and Jerry Norton)

(Corrects paragraph 14 to reflect that Warren Distribution was conducting sandbag operation, not Ameristar Casino)

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Officials: Mont. floods could be worst in decades (AP)

ROUNDUP, Mont. – Another Montana town Thursday was swamped with floodwaters that have washed out roads and rushed though houses across the state, and hundreds more homes downstream in the Dakotas could be hit as heavy rains and melting snow force record releases from bloated dams on the Missouri River.

Ongoing flooding in beleaguered Montana could end up being the worst in decades, officials warned.

The conditions are ripe: unusually heavy snowpack in the mountains, persistent spring rains and waterlogged ground incapable of soaking up any more moisture.

The U.S. Geological Survey said Thursday it was measuring record flows in many rivers and streams, topped by the larger Yellowstone and Musselshell rivers.

"These are major floods, and we know that people's lives could potentially be at risk," said John Kilpatrick, the agency's Montana water science center director.

The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers predicted hundreds of homes in downstream states could flood as the water flows eastward toward North Dakota. The problem could persist into July in the Dakotas, Iowa, Nebraska and elsewhere.

The agency was being forced to plan for record releases of water to relieve reservoirs nearing the top of the six big dams that contain the Missouri River, a river that ultimately collects much of the water in the region.

In Bismarck, N.D., residents were being told to prepare to leave their homes if necessary as the Army Corps of Engineers readied to dump more water than predicted from the Garrison Dam. Animals at the Dakota Zoo were being evacuated Thursday to other zoos in the Dakotas, and the National Guard was beefing up its presence with hundreds more soldiers.

South Dakota also braced for floods. Officials warned that 100 to 150 homes in Pierre and another 200 in Fort Pierre would be hit by flood waters or underground water seeping through basement floors. Residents were moving furniture and other possessions to safe havens and trying to protect homes with sandbags.

"It's unreal," said Lahnee Martin, 22, who was piling sandbags around the Fort Pierre house she just bought a year ago. "It's hard to believe it's going to happen."

In Montana, more roads and highways were being closed Thursday and three more counties declared flood emergencies as dozens of rivers and streams overflowed their banks. Interstate 90 east of Bozeman was reduced to one lane of travel, and only one route to the central Montana town of Roundup remained open.

Roundup was the latest victim of the ongoing flooding, as up to 6 feet of water coursed through the mining and agricultural town of about 1,800 and forced the evacuation of roughly three dozen homes. State officials were sending cots and bottled water to help.

"There's never been water like this since we've been here," said 88-year-old Dan McCaffree, a retired mechanic and rancher.

A dike along the river's north bank gave way in the middle of the night, residents said, sending the river surging through the southern part of the town. The dike was built following a 1967 flood but couldn't handle a river bursting with 13 times more water than normally seen this time of year.

Oil drums, gas cans, a telephone pole and trees were in the water floating through residential areas and swamping vehicles.

The river was expected to crest between Friday and Sunday, authorities said. Thirty to 35 homes were evacuated.

More rain was forecast through the weekend as flood emergencies were announced in Jefferson, Sanders and Musselshell counties. Musselshell County residents were urged to conserve water Thursday morning until emergency services could get an update on the situation.

Relief officials said drinking water, diapers and formula for infants will be distributed over the next two days on the Crow Reservation, where dozens of families were left homeless by earlier flooding from the Little Bighorn River. Floodwaters have retreated on the reservation, but problems persist.

Albert Richmond, a National Weather Service meteorologist, says another "fairly big storm" is expected to move through the area Sunday night into Monday, bringing 2 to 4 inches of rain.

"It's not going to help," he said. "A lot of the rivers and creeks will be going down Saturday and Sunday, but they can come back pretty quick."

On Thursday, residents and officials in Carbon, Yellowstone and Big Horn counties continued to pump water from hundreds of flooded basements. The Office of Public Assistance in Yellowstone County was closed for at least two days after it flooded.

By Thursday afternoon, about 300 people were staying at a Red Cross Shelter set up in a residence hall at the Montana State University-Billings campus.

University spokesman Dan Carter said most of the evacuees — ranging from infants to the elderly — came from the Crow Reservation.

Along the Yellowstone River, Pompey's Pillar National Monument east of Billings was closed due to flood concerns. It was expected to reopen Friday.

In the small town of Joliet, southwest of Billings, authorities said they have been unable to break up debris trapped beneath a bridge along Rock Creek that has contributed to flooding. An estimated 160 homes had their basements or lower levels flooded when the creek rushed through town Wednesday.

"They have to wait to get that debris out until the water goes down," said Joliet volunteer fire chief Melvin Hoferer. "If we get some heavy rains, it would be a lot longer. It might be three or four more days."

In central Montana, the Petroleum County drinking water system was being threatened by rising waters.

At least 17 county roads were closed in Judith Basin County and many more in Petroleum County.

In western Montana, the National Weather Service reports water levels have reached flood stage in southeastern Missoula and Granite County. The service predicts water levels will rise above flood stage by Thursday afternoon and could continue to swell.

___

Associated Press writers Stephen Dockery in Helena and Chet Brokaw in Pierre, S.D., contributed to this report.

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