Southeast England most vulnerable to rising deaths because of global warming

Warmer summer season triggered by global warming may cause more deaths working in london and southeast England compared to relaxation of the nation, researchers predict.

Scientists at Imperial College London checked out temperature records and mortality figures for 2001 to 2010 to discover which districts in Britain go through the greatest effects from warm temps.

Within the most vulnerable districts, working in london and also the southeast, the chances of dying from cardiovascular or respiratory system causes elevated by over 10 percent for each 1C increase in temperature. Districts within the far north were a lot more resilient, seeing no rise in deaths at equivalent temps.

Writing in Character Global Warming, the scientists say local versions in global warming vulnerability should be taken into consideration when assessing the potential risks and selecting policy reactions.

Dr James Bennett, charge author from the study on the MRC-PHE Center for Atmosphere and Health at Imperial College London, stated: “It’s well-known that the sunshine can increase the chance of cardiovascular and respiratory system deaths, particularly in seniors people. Global warming is anticipated to boost average temps while increasing temperature variability, so don't be surprised it to possess effects on mortality even just in nations such as the United kingdom having a temperate climate.”

Across Britain in general, a summer time that's 2C warmer than average could be likely to cause around 1,550 extra deaths, the research found. Approximately half could be in people aged over 85, and 62 percent could be in females. The additional deaths could be distributed unevenly, with 95 from 376 districts comprising 1 / 2 of all deaths.

The results of warm temperature were similar in urban and rural districts. Probably the most vulnerable districts incorporated deprived districts working in london for example Hackney and Tower Hamlets, using the likelihood of dying greater than doubling on hot days like individuals of August 2003.

“The causes of the uneven distribution of deaths in the sunshine have to be analyzed,” stated Professor Majid Ezzati, in the School of Public Health at Imperial, who brought the study. “It may be because of more susceptible people being concentrated in certain areas, or it may be associated with variations in the community level, like quality of health care, that need government action.

“We might expect that individuals in areas that are usually warmer could be more resilient, simply because they adapt by setting up ac for instance. These results reveal that this isn’t the situation in Britain.

“While global warming is really a global phenomenon, resilience and vulnerability to the effects are highly local. A lot of things can be achieved in the local level to lessen the outcome of warm spells, like notifying the general public and planning emergency services. More information about which towns are most in danger from high temps will help inform these methods.”

The scientists received funding in the Scientific Research Council, Public Health England, and also the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Imperial Biomedical Research Center.

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Southeast U.S. should prepare for wild weather from climate change, expert says

People who live in the southeastern United States should begin to prepare for more drastically changing weather conditions -- everything from heat waves to poorer air quality -- caused by climate change, according to a new book, edited by a University of Florida researcher.

The book, which UF's Keith Ingram helped write, is titled "Climate Change of the Southeast United States: Variability, Change, Impacts and Vulnerability." Ingram was the book's lead editor.

Principal authors and editors, including Ingram, unveiled the book Tuesday. Ingram is director of the Southeast Climate Consortium and an associate research scientist with UF's Institute of Food and Agricultural Sciences.

"The Southeast already experiences extreme weather events including floods, droughts, heat waves, cold outbreaks, winter storms, severe thunderstorms, tornadoes and tropical cyclones. In the future, these events are likely to become more frequent or more severe, causing damage to most of our region's agriculture, stressing our region's water resources and threatening human health," he said. "The sooner we make preparations, the better off we'll be."

As defined in the book, the Southeast includes Florida, Georgia, South Carolina, North Carolina, Virginia, Tennessee, Kentucky, Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico.

Specific findings include:

• Average annual temperatures are projected to increase through the 21st century, with the region's interior projected to warm by as much as 9 degrees Fahrenheit;

• Cold days will become less frequent and the freeze-free season will lengthen by up to a month;

• Temperatures exceeding 95 degrees are expected to increase across the Southeast, and heat waves are expected to become longer by between 97 percent and 234 percent through the end of the century;

• Sea levels will likely rise by an average of 3 feet by the end of this century. Of particular concern is that storm surges will compound impacts of rising sea levels, Ingram said. People will have to raise existing structures and build new structures on filled soil, he said. Many cities and counties will have to build or refit water and sewer plants so they can survive rising waters caused by floods, Ingram said. Many builders, residents and governments are already doing these things, he said.

• While the number of tropical storms is projected to decrease slightly, the number of category 3 to category 5 hurricanes is expected to increase;

• High temperature stresses in summer will become more frequent and damaging to agriculture, and will possibly drive dairy and livestock production farther north. Warm weather during winter months reduces yields of blueberry, peach and other crops that need cool temperatures for flower buds to break, he said.

• Air quality is projected to decline and pollen counts will go up, damaging human health.

Residents of the Southeast should begin to prepare for the likelihood of more frequent extreme weather events, Ingram said.

With 26 percent of the U.S. population living in the Southeast, the region produces 25 percent of the country's carbon dioxide emissions, which are partly responsible for the climate change problem, Ingram said.

"We are a significant contributor, but we can help with the solution," he said.

The Southeast Climate Consortium works with extension agents and farmers to bring them valuable research.

"We work on how to adapt to or mitigate climate change," Ingram said.

Some local governments have agreed to reduce carbon emissions, the authors said Tuesday.

Cite This Page:

University of Florida Institute of Food and Agricultural Sciences. "Southeast U.S. should prepare for wild weather from climate change, expert says." ScienceDaily. ScienceDaily, 14 November 2013. .University of Florida Institute of Food and Agricultural Sciences. (2013, November 14). Southeast U.S. should prepare for wild weather from climate change, expert says. ScienceDaily. Retrieved February 1, 2014 from www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2013/11/131114113623.htmUniversity of Florida Institute of Food and Agricultural Sciences. "Southeast U.S. should prepare for wild weather from climate change, expert says." ScienceDaily. www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2013/11/131114113623.htm (accessed February 1, 2014).

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Beryl to bring rain, winds to southeast U.S. coast

A cluster of thunderstorms that stalled off the southeastern U.S. coast on Saturday is expected to make for a sloppy, rainy Memorial Day on beaches and in tourist towns from Florida to South Carolina.

By Matt Born, The (Wilmington, N.C.) Star-News, via AP

Carolina Beach, N.C., Ocean Rescue leader Evan Anderson places a sign closing the beach to swimming Saturday because of strong rip currents.

By Matt Born, The (Wilmington, N.C.) Star-News, via AP

Carolina Beach, N.C., Ocean Rescue leader Evan Anderson places a sign closing the beach to swimming Saturday because of strong rip currents.

Tropical storm warnings were in effect for the entire Georgia coastline, as well as parts of Florida and South Carolina, according to the National Hurricane Center in Miami.

As thousands of people headed toward the beach for the holiday weekend, the center issued tropical storm warnings for the southeastern U.S. from the Volusia/Brevard county line in Florida to Edisto Beach, S.C., and a tropical storm watch stretching north to the South Santee River in South Carolina. A tropical storm warning means that storm conditions could developing within the next day and a half.

The large storm, with tropical-storm force winds stretching out for 115 miles, was expected to get stronger before it approaches land. The storm could also dump 3 to 6 inches of rain on the southeast coast.

Beryl was technically still considered a "subtropical storm," but the system is expected to bring winds and rain to the area regardless of its official classification.

The southeastern coast is popular with tourists who visit to enjoy the beaches and wilderness areas.

"A three-day thunderstorm is what it's probably going to be," said Jay Wiggins, emergency management director for Georgia's Glynn County, which is about 60 miles south of Savannah and includes Brunswick and St. Simons Island. "Unfortunately, it's going to ruin a lot of Memorial Day plans."

Wiggins said he expects some flooded roadways and scattered power outages, perhaps some minor flooding in waterfront homes, but otherwise little damage. However, he urged beachgoers to beware of dangerous rip currents.

On Cumberland Island, a federally protected wilderness area beloved by hikers and campers, superintendent Fred Boyles said he planned to wait until Sunday to decide if campers need to evacuate before the storm arrives. Boyles said he had about 100 campers planning to stay overnight Sunday, and the only way to leave Cumberland Island is by ferry.

In South Carolina, Beaufort County Emergency Management deputy director David Zeoli said that at midday Saturday word went out to first-responders along the coast near the Georgia line to pay attention to the storm's progress. Officials haven't been ordered to work on an otherwise lovely day for the beach, but have been told to stay near a phone, Zeoli said.

This is the second tropical storm to develop before the June 1 start of hurricane season.

Contributing: Associated Press

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Rare November snowfall dusts Southeast (Reuters)

ATLANTA (Reuters) – A rare November snowfall powdered parts of the U.S. Southeast late Monday and early Tuesday, with as much as eight inches falling on one Arkansas town and some schools closed in Tennessee.

Snowfall extended through the mid-Mississippi and Tennessee valleys and as far south as Haleyville, Alabama, said AccuWeather.com meteorologist Alex Sosnowski.

Parts of Missouri, Arkansas, Kentucky, Tennessee, Alabama and Mississippi reported between one and three inches of snow, and more flurries were forecast on Tuesday.

"It was a surprise to see it this early." said Lesley Hobbs, membership director for the Chamber of Commerce in Paragould, Arkansas. "It was really pretty - big flakes."

Paragould, about an hour north of Memphis, got approximately eight inches of snow, Sosnowski told Reuters.

"It's not a once-in-a-100-year event, but it is once every 50 years," he said of the November snowfall. "Some of these areas only get two to three snow days a year."

He said there was little accumulation on roads, which "were pretty warm."

The wintry scene won't last, with the forecast calling for temperatures as high as 60 degrees later in the week in some areas, Sosnowski said.

(Additional reporting by Tim Ghianni in Nashville, Tennessee; Editing by Colleen Jenkins and Greg McCune)

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Surviving Tornado Storms of the Southeast (ContributorNetwork)

LAGRANGE, Ga. -- A series of tornados blasted through the Southeast yesterday afternoon, killing several people, destroying hundreds of homes and buildings throughout Alabama, Georgia, and South Carolina. As my fellow professors and college students huddled in the hallway, a similar event happened at the school my wife teaches at and daughter attends, and another where my son goes to pre-kindergarten.

The wisdom of such emergency procedures became clear, as a tornado slammed through the high school in the county immediately south of us, shutting down the place for at least the rest of the week.

As disruptive as yesterday's twisters were, they were nothing compared to the horrific storms of April 28, 2011, where hundreds died across the Southeast in places like Tuscaloosa, Alabama. Calculations I did for Southern Political Report found that if that storm system was classified as a "land hurricane," it would be the third deadliest storm in the U.S. since World War II.

A few weeks earlier than that, I was presenting a paper in Birmingham when the tornado sirens went off. I was flattered that folks moved away from the windows, but stayed to listen to me finish the talk. We later found out that dozens of people died in that Southeast storm system.

Now folks down here are taking things more seriously, like having a plan for where to go. Our kids know to run to the hallway, where we huddled throughout the night of April 28.

But are these plans enough? In the film "Twister," the problem is treated as one of needing an "earlier warning," as if 15 more minutes would make a different. But most Southerners knew the storm was going to hit, hours before it arrived.

Having an emergency plan is nice, but folks down here know where to go to in the house when a warning siren or Weather Channel issues an alert. Yet when a mile-wide tornado slams into Tuscaloosa homes, or the giant twisters reduces homes and hotels to a pile of rubble, there's nowhere to hide.

How is it that what was once called "Tornado Alley," (the Midwest) are seeing just as many tornados, but "Dixie Alley" is seeing twister deaths skyrocket? Grady Dixon of Mississippi State University found that tornados in the Southeast stay on the ground longer. USA Today ran Dixon's story two days before devastating tornado storm system.

There's another problem "Dixie Alley" residents face. Hardly any have storm shelters, while Tornado Alley is rife with them. If the U.S. government wants to help the region, and the economy, they need to get homebuilders to switch to building storm shelters. Otherwise, the region will see more deaths from these powerful twisters.

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Tornadoes in Southeast kill 6, flatten houses (AP)

By MITCH WEISS and MICHAEL BIESECKER, Associated Press Mitch Weiss And Michael Biesecker, Associated Press – Thu Nov 17, 5:19 pm ET

LEXINGTON, N.C. – A day after deadly tornadoes struck the Southeast, survivors looked for what they could salvage, huddled in loved ones' hospital rooms and shared stories of how they made it through the furious storms.

Some were also mourning. People in a hard-hit North Carolina neighborhood marked the spot where a 3-year-old girl's body was found with an American flag. The little girl and her grandmother were among six killed in three states Wednesday.

The two were alone in the small house in a rural area south of Lexington when the storm hit, leaving behind only the foundation. The house's splintered remains were scattered hundreds of feet. The family's Dodge minivan ended up propped against a nearby tree, its windows smashed and roof caved in.

Firefighters and volunteers searched for the girl, whose name wasn't immediately released, for more than two hours before finding her buried in a pile of shattered lumber and furniture.

"She was just beautiful — big blue eyes and so sweet," said Maegan Chriscoe, whose daughter played with the young victim.

Elsewhere, the storms killed three people in South Carolina, and a Georgia motorist was died when a tree crushed his SUV north of Atlanta.

Dozens more were injured across the region, scores of buildings were damaged and thousands were without power. Meteorologists confirmed Thursday that tornadoes had struck Louisiana and Alabama a day earlier and twisters were suspected in Mississippi, Georgia and the Carolinas.

"It looked like the `Wizard of Oz,'" Henry Taylor said, describing a funnel cloud outside his home near Rock Hill, S.C. "It was surreal, and for a moment, a split second, you say to yourself `This ain't real,' then reality sets in, and you know it is."

The 50-year-old Taylor said he and his wife sought refuge in a closet as the storm roared. Part of his roof was torn off, windows were blown out and trees had been snapped in two. But he and his wife escaped injury.

"I held my wife closely in the closet and I prayed. I said, `Oh my God, this is it. I'm going to be buried in the debris. We're going to die,'" Taylor said Thursday, wiping back tears.

Jerry Neely said his wife, Janet, was home alone and fled to the bathroom for safety. The tornado lifted the bathtub, pinning her underneath, Jerry Neely said by phone from his wife's hospital room Thursday.

"It's going to be hard to overcome this. I don't know what we're going to do. It's just so hard," Jerry Neely said, adding that his wife will recover from her injuries.

The sheriff for surrounding York County asked South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley for state assistance in cleaning up the debris. Authorities blocked roads leading into the area and only allowed emergency workers and power crews in.

Ideal conditions for severe weather were created when a cold front stretching from the Gulf of Mexico to the Northeast collided with unseasonably warm air, forecasters said. Temperatures dropped in some areas from the low 70s to the 50s as the front passed.

Still, it's not unusual for the region to have severe storms in November because temperatures can fluctuate wildly, said National Weather Service meteorologist Neil Dixon.

In Alabama, the National Weather Service confirmed that tornadoes hit communities in the western and central parts of the state and continued to assess a suspected twister that demolished mobile homes at a pair of housing parks near Auburn University. The campus was spared major damage.

It was the worst bout of weather for the state since about 250 people were killed during a tornado outbreak in April the state.

Back in Lexington, Marshall Chriscoe described running for cover in his house, which is across the street from where the little girl and her grandmother died. When he got a text message from his girlfriend that a tornado was headed his way, he grabbed her 4-year-old daughter and they huddled under a heavy roll-top desk.

"The house started shaking and things were falling," said Chriscoe, 24, who's Maegan Chriscoe's brother. "It only lasted 15, maybe 30 seconds. I stood up and realized I was standing on an incline."

The small house he rents had been lifted off its foundation. After finding his girlfriend's Chihuahua hiding under a bed, he went outside to find a scene of devastation.

Chriscoe said he and other neighbors quickly found the gravely injured grandmother in the debris of her home.

"She was talking and moving her arms," he said. "She just kept yelling, `Get me up!' But we were afraid to move her before the rescue squad got there."

About a quarter mile away, Richard Hedrick worked to salvage what he could from his ruined childhood home. He said his parents sought shelter in their basement and suffered minor injuries when their brick house was lifted up and dropped back in place.

Still, Hedrick felt lucky that they were OK.

"Mama always said she wanted a sunroom," he said jokingly when asked if they planned to rebuild. "This was the home place, lots of memories here. But next week, we'll have Thanksgiving dinner somewhere else and we'll be truly thankful."

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Biesecker reported from Lexington, N.C. Associated Press writers Jeffrey Collins in Rock Hill, S.C., and Bob Johnson and Jay Reeves in Birmingham, Ala., contributed to this report.

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