Global warming will not reduce deaths in the winter months, British study concludes

New information released today finds that global warming is not likely to lessen britain's excess winter dying rate as formerly thought. The research is released within the journal Character Global Warming and debunks the broadly held view that warmer winters will cut the amount of deaths normally seen in the very coldest season.

Examining data in the past six decades, scientists in the College of Exeter and College College London (UCL) checked out the way the winter dying rate has transformed with time, and just what factors affected it.

They discovered that from 1951 to 1971, the amount of cold winter days was strongly associated with dying rates, while from 1971 to 1991, both the amount of cold days and flu activity were accountable for elevated dying rates. However, their analysis demonstrated that from 1991 to 2011, flu activity alone was the primary cause in year upon year variation in the winter months mortality.

Lead investigator Dr Philip Staddon stated "We have proven that the amount of cold days inside a winter no more describes its quantity of excess deaths. Rather, the primary reason for year upon year variation in the winter months mortality in recent decades continues to be flu."

They claim that this reduced outcomes of the amount of cold days and deaths inside a winter could be described by enhancements in housing, healthcare, earnings along with a greater understanding of the potential risks from the cold.

As global warming progresses, the United kingdom will probably experience growing weather extremes, including more less foreseeable periods of utmost cold. The study highlights that, despite a generally warmer winter, a far more volatile climate could really result in elevated amounts of winter deaths connected with global warming, instead of less.

Dr Staddon thinks the findings have important implications for policy:

"Both policy makers and health care professionals have, for a while, assumed that the potential take advantage of global warming is a decrease in deaths seen over winter. We have proven this is not likely to be. Efforts to combat winter mortality because of cold spells shouldn't be lessened, and individuals against flu and flu-like ailments ought to be maintained."

Co-author, Prof Hugh Montgomery of UCL stated:

"Global warming seems unlikely to reduce winter dying rates. Indeed, it might substantially increase them by driving extreme weather occasions and greater variation in the winter months temps. Action must automatically get to prevent this happening."

Co-author, Prof Michael Depledge of College of Exeter School Of Medicine stated:

"Studies from the kind we've carried out provide information that's key for policymakers and political figures planning to handle the impacts of global warming. We are hopeful that the significance of this problem is going to be understood, to ensure that matters of health insurance and environment security could be worked with seriously and effectively."

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Six months after Japan's tsunami, residents worry their plight is fading from view (video) (The Christian Science Monitor)

Minami-Sanriku, Japan – As memorial services were held across the northeast coastal regions to mark six months since the March 11 earthquake and tsunami, recovery from the vast disaster is proving to be painfully slow in many places.

Some of the worst-hit towns still resemble wasteland. More than 80,000 people remain in temporary accommodation. The nuclear crisis at Fukushima triggered by the tsunami is ongoing, and the new industry minister resigned over the weekend after making disparaging comments about the city.

“We pray for the lost lives and for the missing to be found as early as possible. We hope that people can return to this town and we can hear cheerful voices again,â€

RELATED: IN PICTURES: Japan's nuclear fallout

Mr. Sato had been in the town hall along with 130 staff when the tsunami struck. He was one of only 10 survivors when the 50-ft. waves came across the roof of the building and washed away 20 of the 30 people who had made it that far.

Most of the residents of the town returned for the service from other areas, as Minami-Sanriku remains largely uninhabitable. Thousands of tons of debris were piled into mountains of wood, earth, metal, and concrete along the waterfront.

A boat rests on the second floor of the former city hospital, facing away from the sea, where the tsunami deposited it as the huge wave pulled back to where it came from after obliterating 95 percent of the town.

Related video:

newslook

Recognizing sacrifices Red steel girders are all that is left of the town’s disaster response center where a young local government worker, Miki Endo, famously stayed at her post sounding an alarm and urging residents to evacuate, until the tsunami engulfed the building and she went missing.

People came from as far as Tokyo to pay their respects at the small makeshift shrine that has appeared in the shell of the building, dedicated to Ms. Endo’s sacrifice. Some residents of Minami-Sanriku want the remains of the building to be turned into a permanent monument to her heroism.

A cluster of 20 prefab housing units behind the Bayside Arena, where Sunday morning’s service was held, is now home to a fraction of the town’s people who lost their homes on March 11.

Kaeko Gyoba was in a club for Minami-Sanriku’s elderly residents with her husband when the earthquake struck. They made it up to the fourth floor and were spared as the waves swept through the three stories below, but left the building standing when the waves receded. It was one of the few buildings spared in the entire town.

“We spent two nights up there until a Self-Defense Force helicopter was able to land at the elementary school nearby and get us out,” says Ms. Gyoba.She stayed with relatives near Tokyo after the disaster, but she returned last month to be with the rest of her family, who now occupy five of the small, flimsy-looking temporary houses.

“It’s very tough living here, I just can’t get used to it. There’s nowhere in the town to shop, you need a car to go anywhere, and I worry how cold it will be in the winter,” says Gyoba. “And none of the family have jobs now. They all worked on the ocean, farming seaweed and oysters. Everything was swept away.”

Fading from public consciousness? Despite the nationwide attention that the six-month memorials have been receiving, some of those still struggling to put their lives back together feel they are gradually fading from people’s consciousness in the rest of the country. There is also anger at politicians in Tokyo who they see as more concerned with partisan fighting than focusing on helping the region’s recovery.

Even the leadership contest to replace former Prime Minister Naoto Kan – heavily criticized for his handling of the crisis – was seen as a self-indulgent distraction by many in the region. His replacement, Yoshihiko Noda, has already lost his trade and industry minister, only eight days after being sworn in.

On his first visit to the disaster zone last week, Trade Minister Yoshio Hachiro joked with a reporter accompanying him on the trip about infecting him with radiation by wiping his jacket on the journalist after coming out of the no-go zone around the Fukushima nuclear plant. The minister went on to describe the area around the stricken facility as, “really like a town of death.”

Hachiro’s behavior provoked outrage not just among residents of Fukushima, but across Japan’s north-east coast. For many, the minister’s attitude betrayed a lack of real empathy from Tokyo politicians with the victims of the triple disasters, and his tearful apology afterward convinced few.

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Japan anti-nuclear protests mark 6 months since quake (Reuters)

TOKYO (Reuters) – Anti-nuclear protesters took to the streets of Tokyo and other cities on Sunday to mark six months since the March earthquake and tsunami and vent their anger at the government's handling of the nuclear crisis set off by meltdowns at the Fukushima power plant.

In one of the largest protests, an estimated 2,500 people marched past the headquarters of the plant's operator, Tokyo Electric Power Company, and created a "human chain" around the building of the Trade Ministry that oversees the power industry.

The magnitude 9.0 earthquake and tsunami that hit Japan's northeastern coast left 20,000 dead or missing and crippled the Fukushima plant, triggering the worst nuclear crisis since Chernobyl.

The accident that led to radiation and contamination fears spurred widespread calls for an end to Japan's reliance on nuclear power in the quake-prone country.

Protesters, marching to the beat of drums, called for a complete shutdown of nuclear power plants across Japan and demanded a shift in government policy toward alternative sources of energy.

Among the protestors were four young men who declared the start of a 10-day hunger strike to bring about change in Japan's nuclear policy.

"I believe it is very important that the young generation voices opposition against nuclear power, and in order to bring our point across we need to put ourselves on the line and that's why we chose to hunger strike for 10 days," said 20-year-old Naoya Okamoto.

Japanese media reported similar protests in other cities across Japan on the day many offered prayers to those who died in the March 11 disaster.

(Reporting by Olivier Fabre; Writing by Tomasz Janowski)

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Japan marks 6 months since earthquake, tsunami (AP)

By TOMOKO A. HOSAKA, Associated Press Tomoko A. Hosaka, Associated Press – Sun Sep 11, 11:58 am ET

TOKYO – Up and down Japan's devastated northeast coast, survivors prayed and communities came together Sunday to mark six months since the massive earthquake and tsunami struck on March 11, a date that changed everything for them and their country.

As the world commemorated the 10th anniversary of the World Trade Center attacks, Japanese parents hung colorful paper cranes for their lost children and monks chanted in front of smashed buildings. Thousands also marched in the streets to demand that the country abandon nuclear power because of damage to the Fukushima Dai-ichi nuclear plant.

At precisely 2:46 p.m., they stopped and observed a minute of silence.

The magnitude-9.0 earthquake produced the sort of devastation Japan hadn't seen since World War II. The tsunami that followed engulfed the northeast and wiped out entire towns. The waves inundated the Fukushima plant, triggering the worst nuclear accident since Chernobyl.

Some 20,000 people are dead or missing. More than 800,000 homes were completely or partially destroyed. The disaster crippled businesses, roads and infrastructure. The Japanese Red Cross Society estimates that 400,000 people were displaced.

Half a year later, there are physical signs of progress.

Much of the debris has been cleared away or at least organized into big piles. In the port city of Kesennuma, many of the boats carried inland by the tsunami have been removed. Most evacuees have moved out of high school gyms and into temporary shelters or apartments.

The supply chain problems that led to critical parts shortages for Japan's auto and electronics makers are nearly resolved. Industrial production has almost recovered to pre-quake levels.

But beyond the surface is anxiety and frustration among survivors facing an uncertain future. They are growing increasingly impatient with a government they describe as too slow and without direction.

Masayuki Komatsu, a fisherman in Kesennuma, wants to restart his abalone farming business.

But he worries about radiation in the sea from the still-leaking Fukushima plant and isn't sure if his products will be safe enough to sell. He said officials are not providing adequate radiation information for local fisherman.

"I wonder if the government considers our horrible circumstances and the radiation concerns of people in my business," said Komatsu, who also lost his home.

Another resident, 80-year-old Takashi Sugawara, lost his sister in the tsunami and now lives in temporary housing. He wants to rebuild his home but is stuck in limbo for the time being.

"My family is not very wealthy, and I only wish that the country would decide what to do about the area as soon as possible," Sugawara said.

He might be waiting for a while. The Nikkei financial newspaper reported this week that many municipalities in the hardest-hit prefecture of Miyagi, Iwate and Fukushima have yet to draft reconstruction plans.

Of the 31 cities, towns and villages severely damaged by the disaster, just four have finalized their plans, the Nikkei said. The scale of the disaster, the national government's slow response and quarrels among residents have delayed the rebuilding process.

Workers at the Fukushima nuclear plant are still struggling to meet a goal of bringing it to a cold shutdown by early next year.

"We are barely keeping the reactors under control and the situation is still difficult," Nuclear and Industrial Safety Agency spokesman Yoshinori Moriyama said in Tokyo.

In Fukushima city, dozens of citizens rallied Sunday outside a government-backed international conference at which scientists agreed that the radiation danger from the nuclear plant was far less than Chernobyl. The protesters accused conference organizers of trying to underestimate the risk for children.

Citizens also demonstrated in major cities like Tokyo and Osaka, where thousands of anti-nuclear protesters demanded that the country give up nuclear power. Activists circled the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry holding banners saying, "Nuclear power? Goodbye."

Criticism of the government's handling of the disaster and nuclear crisis led former Prime Minister Naoto Kan to resign. Former Finance Minister Yoshihiko Noda took over nine days ago, becoming Japan's sixth new prime minister in five years.

He spent much of Saturday visiting Miyage and Iwate prefectures, promising more funding to speed up recovery efforts and trying to shore up confidence in his administration.

But the trip was overshadowed later in the day by his first big political embarrassment. Noda's new trade minister Yoshio Hachiro resigned, caving into intense pressure after calling the area around the nuclear plant "a town of death," a comment seen as insensitive to nuclear evacuees.

Public support for the new government started out strong, with an approval rating of 62.8 percent in a Kyodo News poll released last Saturday. Hachiro's resignation will likely translate into a drop and new doubts about Noda's ability to lead.

Regardless of politics, what's clear is that the road ahead will be long.

"Given the enormous scale of the destruction and the massive area affected, this will be a long and complex recovery and reconstruction operation," Tadateru Konoe, the Red Cross president, said in a statement. "It will take at least five years to rebuild, but healing the mental scars could take much longer."

___

Associated Press writer Mari Yamaguchi in Fukushima and APTN videojournalist Miki Toda in Kesennuma contributed to this report.

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Hurricane Irene Heading Toward North Carolina Four Months After Tornado (ContributorNetwork)

FIRST PERSON | SANFORD, N.C. -- As I write this story, I am watching the local news, which has been tightly focused on Hurricane Irene's steady approach toward North Carolina. I grew up in Virginia and attended graduate school in South Carolina, so I've seen my share of hurricanes. One thing I've noticed is that hurricanes seem particularly fond of hitting North Carolina. I have watched this state bear the brunt of storm after storm, while Virginia and South Carolina often end up relatively unscathed.

Another reason I'm nervous about Hurricane Irene is because about four months ago, my husband and I weathered our first tornado. The tornado hit Sanford, N.C., with a vengeance; thankfully, our house was not damaged, but the remnants of that storm are still clearly evident not even a quarter mile from our home.

The neighborhood just east of ours looks like it was attacked by a drunken lumberjack, with dozens of mature trees that were snapped in half after just a few minutes of severe rain and high winds. There are still plenty of boarded up homes, sheared off trees, pieces of scrap metal embedded in tree trunks and tarps on roofs to remind us of the catastrophic wrath Mother Nature can unexpectedly unleash. My memories of that scary tornado are still very fresh and have made it impossible for me to be apathetic about the approaching storm that could be affecting us this weekend.

Sanford, along with many other places on the East Coast, also experienced a very rare earthquake today. This rare earthquake, preceding what is forecast to be a substantial hurricane, will no doubt make plenty of people nervous.

Thanks to the tornado that hit Sanford in April, I have already invested in an emergency radio that runs on solar power. This morning, I reminded my husband to pick up some batteries, water, propane, matches and candles in preparation for the storm.

I also asked my husband if he thought we might want to purchase a generator, but then I remembered our local Lowe's hardware store was destroyed during the tornado. One thing the tornado taught me is that the local radio station is great during a crisis; I expect to be able to tune into WJFA Classic Hits and Oldies and get up-to-the-minute coverage of how Hurricane Irene has affected Sanford and where we can go for help if we need it. That's a small comfort in the face of a big storm.

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Joplin goes back to school 3 months after twister (AP)

JOPLIN, MO. – Seniors and juniors are taking classes in a converted big-box store. Freshmen and sophomores are in a building across town. The new middle school is in an industrial park.

Across Joplin, the schools are still a jumble, with books, computer monitors and unassembled furniture littering unfamiliar hallways. But as classes resumed Wednesday, students and teachers welcomed the start of another year as a return to something normal — or what passes for normal in a city crippled last spring by the nation's single deadliest tornado in six decades.

"You can't pretend like nothing happened," said high school English teacher Brenda White. "But everything is so new here. Every single thing that is this school is new and different."

The twister killed 160 people, injured hundreds more and destroyed thousands of buildings, including Joplin's only public high school. Now after months of cleaning up debris, attending funerals and trying to rebuild shattered lives, it was time to get back to pop quizzes and homework assignments.

"It's going to take a while to build everything back, but books are a good start," White said while stocking her classrooms with copies of "The Great Gatsby," "The Kite Runner" and other literary standards, past and present.

The school system was hit especially hard by the May 22 tornado. Seven students and one employee were among the victims, including a senior pulled from his car by winds on his way home from the Joplin High School graduation ceremony. Six school buildings were destroyed, including the high school. Seven other buildings were badly damaged.

District leaders quickly realized that they would play a huge role in Joplin's recovery, for reasons symbolic as much as practical. They expanded the hours and locations of summer school in an effort to give children a reassuring routine — and their parents the time to deal with insurance agents, contractors and social service agencies.

They cobbled together a hodge-podge of temporary locations for fall classes, from the old Shopko store at Northpark Mall to a former Missouri Department of Transportation office where the superintendent and other administrators now work. Rival elementary schools combined, and a middle school found space in an industrial park.

Even in a corner of the country where hard work is cherished, the swiftness of the transformation was striking, White said.

"I've always known people are strong here. But this has really brought it home," she said. "People are so strong. They just get up, dust off and go to work."

Students arrived at the "mall school" Wednesday morning to a bevy of well-wishers holding Joplin High signs and lining the entrance road. Some teens gathered in modular classrooms, right next to a row of concrete-lined storm shelters. Others lingered in hallways.

They raved about the school's college-like feel. Drinks will soon be available from Joplin Joe's coffee bar, and every student could get a free laptop thanks to a donation from the United Arab Emirates worth as much as $1 million.

Parents and other relatives were impressed.

"It just blows your mind," said Pamela Berry, who accompanied her 17-year-old nephew to a Tuesday night open house. "I want to come back to high school."

The start of classes also offered students a chance to reunite with classmates who had endured the same ordeal.

"Everyone is closer, more friendly to each other," said senior Yainer Oviedo, whose mother and six siblings lost their home to the storm. He now lives with a classmate and still wrestles with his own harrowing memories of huddling behind a flimsy mattress while the tornado roared overhead.

"Our whole community has been through a lot," he added. "You look at someone and automatically know what they're going through."

Missouri Gov. Jay Nixon, who toured the school Wednesday, encouraged students to take advantage of their new learning environment.

"I hope you use what has been given to you to lift the expectations of Joplin even higher," he said. "While there's been tremendous suffering, there are even greater expectations."

Among those hoping to match those expectations was junior Christopher Jones. Unlike most years, his summer vacation couldn't end soon enough, he said.

"I was really just looking for a change," Jones said.

At East Middle School, which was relocated to a converted warehouse on the outskirts of town, students agreed that some things were unchanged: Cafeteria food still tasted terrible. Kids got lost on their way to class. And the odor of pet food from the factory across the street was gross.

Younger students, too, said they relate differently to each other — and to their parents — after surviving the disaster.

"It brought me a lot closer to my mom," said Madeline Fichtner, 13, who described riding out the storm without initially knowing whether her mother was safe.

School officials brought in additional counselors and trauma workers to help students and families who may still be struggling in the storm's aftermath.

"We can build buildings, but the emotional damage that this storm has caused is of a very significant concern and something we're going to be watching closely for months, if not years," Superintendent C.J. Huff said.

Phillip Gloyer, a communication arts teacher who is also a National Guard chaplain, said he planned to tap his divinity school training as well as his expertise in British literature.

"I'm just really focused on the kids' emotional health," he said. "A lot of hugs, a lot of encouragement. Asking them to tell their story. That's the best therapy."

___

Alan Scher Zagier can be reached at http://twitter.com/azagier

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Anti-nuke protests in Japan, 3 months after quake (AP)

TOKYO – Protesters in Tokyo prepared Saturday to hold mass demonstrations against the use of nuclear power, as Japanese marked the three-month anniversary of the powerful earthquake and tsunami that killed tens of thousands and triggered one of the world's worst nuclear disasters.

The magnitude-9 earthquake that hit off Japan's northeast coast March 11 caused a massive tsunami that devastated the coastline. The disasters knocked out power and cooling systems at the Fukushima Dai-ichi nuclear power plant, about 140 miles (225 kilometers) northeast of Tokyo, setting off explosions, fires and large radiation leaks at the facility.

Official reports released earlier in the week said the damage and leakage was worse than previously thought, with nuclear fuel in three reactors likely melting through their main cores and larger containment vessels. The reports also said radiation that leaked into the air amounted to about one-sixth of the Chernobyl nuclear disaster in 1986.

Hundreds of plant workers are still scrambling to bring the crippled Fukushima reactors to a "cold shutdown" by early next year and end the crisis. The accident has forced more than 80,000 residents to evacuate from their homes around the plant.

The disasters have renewed a national debate on the use of nuclear power in Japan, which has few natural resources and is heavily reliant on atomic energy. Some nuclear plants across the country have been shut down in the wake of the disaster, leading to fears Japan may not have enough electricity for the peak summer months.

Three months after the disasters, which killed about 23,000 people, 90,000 are still living in temporary shelters such as school gyms and community centers. Some families have been moved into temporary housing, but supplies are short and sufficient housing is not expected to be completed for several more months.

All along the coast, a massive cleanup effort continues as cranes and dump trucks haul away the wreckage from hundreds of thousands of buildings that were destroyed or damaged by the tsunami.

Also Saturday, embattled Japanese Prime Minister Naoto Kan was scheduled to visit a tsunami-damaged region in northern Iwate prefecture (state).

Kan, who reached the one-year mark of his tenure earlier this week, has been under fire for his handling of the disasters and the country's recovery plans. He survived a no-confidence vote earlier this month, in part by promising to step down once the country's recovery takes hold.

Speculation about when he will step down has been rampant since, with Japan's two main opposition parties considering a grand coalition to lead the country's recovery. Kan is Japan's fifth leader in four years.

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Japan marks three months since tsunami with protests (AFP)

TOKYO (AFP) – Thousands of people staged anti-nuclear rallies in Japan on Saturday as the country marked three months since its massive quake and tsunami, which resulted in the world's worst nuclear accident in 25 years.

Radiation continued to leak from the crippled Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant, some 220 kilometres (140 miles) northeast of the capital, amid simmering public frustration over the government's slow response to the triple catastrophe.

Prime Minister Naoto Kan, under heavy pressure to step down, visited part of the disaster zone where 23,500 people were killed or are still unaccounted for while 90,000 others remained holing up in crowded shelters.

In the tsunami-hit port town of Kamaishi, Kan -- who was on his way to a memorial service -- was pressed by a fishery official to pass an extra relief budget as soon as possible. "I will work hard," the premier replied.

Media reports said that around 100 anti-nuclear events were staged nationwide, including in the western cities of Osaka and Hiroshima, which was devastated by a US atomic bomb in 1945.

In the capital an estimated 6,000 demonstrators, some carrying placards reading: "We don't want nuclear power plants" marched by the head office of the Fukushima plant's operator, Tokyo Electric Power Company (TEPCO), in a rally organised online by the Japan Congress against Atomic and Nuclear Bombs.

But dozens of apparently right-wing activists, some of them holding the military rising-sun flag, jeered from the roadside condemning the calls to downgrade Japan's nuclear ambitions.

TEPCO, once the world's biggest utility, has seen its share price plunge more than 90 percent since the March 11 disaster.

A minute's silence was observed at various places nationwide at 2:46 pm (0546 GMT), the moment the 9.0-magnitude quake struck below the Pacific seafloor sending monster waves over the country's northeastern Tohoku region.

"It is time to shift to renewable energy sources," Greenpeace director Kumi Naidoo told a rally at Tokyo's Yoyogi Park before they took to the streets holding sunflowers and gerbera daisies.

"I have yet to have a child but I come here with my neighbours and their children because of the fear we feel every day," Misuzu Kiyozumi, a 34-year-old housewife from the suburban city of Ichikawa, told AFP.

The prime minister attended a meeting with leaders in Kamaishi on ways to improve survivors' lives while newspaper editorials criticised his government's handling of the calamity.

"I heard what they really need. I want to incorporate into a second supplementary budget what has not been included in our first supplementary budget," Kan told reporters after the meeting.

The mass-circulation Yomiuri Shimbun said his government's assistance to disaster-hit communities "has been insufficient."

"The removal of rubble has been overly delayed. Construction of makeshift housing for evacuees has yet to get on the right track," it said.

Rebuilding the muddy wastelands of the Tohoku region -- an area now covered in 25 million tonnes of rubble -- will take up to a decade and cost hundreds of billions of dollars, experts say.

A 20-kilometre (12-mile) no-go zone has been enforced around the Fukushima nuclear plant, which emergency crews hope to bring into stable "cold shutdown" between October and January.

Environmental and anti-nuclear group Greenpeace called on Japan this week to evacuate children and pregnant women from Fukushima town, about 60 kilometres from the stricken plant, because of what it said was high radiation.

Since the disaster, Japan has raised the legal exposure limit for people, including children, from one to 20 millisieverts per year -- matching the safety standard for nuclear industry workers in many countries.

In the wake of the disaster, Kan has said resource-poor Japan will review its energy policy, including its plans for more nuclear reactors, while making solar and other alternative energies new pillars of its energy mix.

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