Hurricane sandy increased incidents of heart attacks, stroke in hardest hit New Jersey counties

Heart attacks and strokes are more likely to occur during extreme weather and natural disasters such as earthquakes and floods. Researchers at the Cardiovascular Institute of New Jersey at Rutgers Robert Wood Johnson Medical School have found evidence that Hurricane Sandy, commonly referred to as a superstorm, had a significant effect on cardiovascular events, including myocardial infarction (heart attack) and stroke, in the high-impact areas of New Jersey two weeks following the 2012 storm. The study, led by Joel N. Swerdel, MS, MPH, an epidemiologist at the Cardiovascular Institute and the Rutgers School of Public Health, was published in the Journal of the American Heart Association.

Utilizing the Myocardial Infarction Data Acquisition System (MIDAS), the researchers examined changes in the incidence of and mortality from myocardial infarctions and strokes from 2007 to 2012 for two weeks prior to and two weeks after October 29, the date of Hurricane Sandy. MIDAS is an administrative database containing hospital records of all patients discharged from non-federal hospitals in New Jersey with a cardiovascular disease diagnosis or invasive cardiovascular procedure.

In the two weeks following Hurricane Sandy, the researchers found that in the eight counties determined to be high-impact areas, there was a 22 percent increase in heart attacks as compared with the same time period in the previous five years. In the low impact areas (the remaining 13 counties), the increase was less than one percent. 30-day mortality from heart attacks also increased by 31 percent in the high-impact area.

"We estimate that there were 69 more deaths from myocardial infarction during the two weeks following Sandy than would have been expected. This is a significant increase over typical non-emergency periods," said Swerdel. "Our hope is that the research may be used by the medical community, particularly emergency medical services, to prepare for the change in volume and severity of health incidents during extreme weather events."

In regard to stroke, the investigators found an increase of 7 percent compared to the same time period in the prior five years in areas of the state impacted the most. There was no change in the incidence of stroke in low-impact areas. There also was no change in the rate of 30-day mortality due to stroke in either the high- or low-impact areas.

"Hurricane Sandy had unprecedented environmental, financial and health consequences on New Jersey and its residents, all factors that can increase the risk of cardiovascular events," said John B. Kostis, MD, director of the Cardiovascular Institute of New Jersey and associate dean for cardiovascular research at Rutgers Robert Wood Johnson Medical School. "Increased stress and physical activity, dehydration and a decreased attention or ability to manage one's own medical needs probably caused cardiovascular events during natural disasters or extreme weather. Also, the disruption of communication services, power outages, gas shortages, and road closures, also were contributing factors to efficiently obtaining medical care."

Journal Reference:

J. N. Swerdel, T. M. Janevic, N. M. Cosgrove, J. B. Kostis. The Effect of Hurricane Sandy on Cardiovascular Events in New Jersey. Journal of the American Heart Association, 2014; 3 (6): e001354 DOI: 10.1161/JAHA.114.001354

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Hurricane conjecture: Real-time forecast of Hurricane Sandy had track and intensity precision

A genuine-time hurricane analysis and conjecture system that effectively includes airborne Doppler radar information may precisely track the road, intensity and wind pressure inside a hurricane, based on Penn Condition meteorologists. This technique may also find out the causes of forecast uncertainty.

"With this particular study aircraft-based Doppler radar information was consumed in to the system," stated Fuqing Zhang, professor of meteorology, Penn Condition. "Our forecasts were similar to or much better than individuals produced by operational global models."

Zhang and Erin B. Munsell, graduate student in meteorology, used The Pennsylvania Condition College real-time convection-enabling hurricane analysis and predicting system (WRF-EnKF) to evaluate Hurricane Sandy. While Sandy made landfall around the Nj coast around the evening of March. 29, 2012, case study and forecast system started monitoring on March. 21 and also the Doppler radar data examined covers March. 26 through 28.

The scientists in comparison The WRF-EnKF forecasts towards the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Global Forecast System (GFS) and also the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Predictions (ECMWF). Besides the opportunity to effectively assimilate real-time Doppler radar information, the WRF-EnKF model includes high-resolution cloud-enabling grids, which permit the presence of individual clouds within the model.

"Our model predicted storm pathways with 100 km -- 50 mile -- precision four or five days in front of landfall for Hurricane Sandy," stated Zhang. "We had accurate forecasts of Sandy's intensity."

The WRF-EnKF model also runs 60 storm forecasts concurrently being an ensemble, each with slightly varying initial conditions. This program operates on NOAA's devoted computer, and also the analysis ended around the Texas Advanced Computing Center computer due to the enormity of information collected.

To evaluate the Hurricane Sandy forecast data, the scientists divided the 60 incurs groups -- good, fair and poor. This method could isolate questions within the model initial conditions, that are at their peak on March. 26, when 10 from the forecasts recommended that Sandy wouldn't make landfall whatsoever. By searching only at that area of the model, Zhang indicates the errors occur due to variations within the initial steering level winds within the tropics that Sandy was baked into, rather than a mid-latitude trough -- a place of relatively low atmospheric pressure -- in front of Sandy's path.

"Although the mid-latitude system doesn't strongly influence the ultimate position of Sandy, variations within the timing and placement of their interactions with Sandy result in considerable variations in rain fall predictions, especially regarding heavy precipitation over land," the scientists report inside a recent problem from the Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems.

By 2 days before landfall, the WRF-EnKF model was precisely predicting the hurricane's path with landfall in southern Nj, as the GFS model predicted a far more northern landfall in New You are able to and Connecticut, and also the ECMWF model forecast landfall in northern Nj.

Hurricane Sandy is a great storm to evaluate because its path was unusual among Atlantic tropical storms, that do not usually turn northwest in to the mid-Atlantic or Colonial. While the 3 models did a reasonably good job at predicting facets of this hurricane, the WRF-EnKF model was very promising in predicting path, intensity and rain fall.

NOAA is presently evaluating using the WRF-EnKF system in storm conjecture, along with other scientists are utilizing it to calculate storm surge and risk analysis.

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Crowdsourced rain samples map Hurricane Sandy's evolution

A distinctive approach to collect rain water samples throughout Hurricane Sandy has revealed the storm's chemical "signature" with a brand new degree of detail. The strategy could also result in weather model advances which will ultimately improve storm conjecture, say scientists in the College of Utah whose study was released online today in PLOS ONE.

Hurricane Sandy, also called Superstorm Sandy, was the most harmful and many destructive hurricane from the 2012 Atlantic hurricane season, based on government sources. Damage estimations exceed $65 billion and nearly 300 people perished across the road to the storm in seven nations.

"Because the climate changes these days, there's possible more severe weather will stray farther north across the eastern seaboard, like Sandy did," states Stephen Good, a postdoctoral fellow in geology and geophysics in the College of Utah, and lead author around the study. "Choice becomes progressively vital that you better comprehend the processes at the office during these large storm systems."

To that particular finish, scientists in the U required to the web to ask volunteers to gather water samples because the storm passed.

"Throughout Sandy, we used crowdsourcing to acquire an unparalleled assortment of hurricane rain waters," states Gabriel Bowen, connect professor of geology and geophysics, who released the sampling effort after recognizing the storm was on the right track to affect most from the eastern U . s . States. "By benefiting from data and samples collected from citizens on the floor, we could pinpoint when and where key options that come with the storm system developed and just how they developed, permitting us to build up a far more truth from the storm."

Tropical cyclones, also known to as severe weather once they occur within the North Atlantic Sea, are quickly rotating storm systems that create strong winds and high rain. They form over large physiques of relatively tepid to warm water, drawing their energy from evaporation and eventual condensation water in the ocean's surface.

"Sandy created a distinctive isotopic signature in rain collected in the mid-Atlantic up into in Colonial that shows the way a dry cold front coming initially from from the Area became a member of with Sandy -- which developed from the tropical wave over tepid to warm water within the Caribbean -- and sure prolonged and broadened the storm," states Bowen.

The sampling technique provides a different way of studying how these "extra-tropical" severe weather communicate with the elements systems from the northern latitudes, and therefore helps in hurricane predicting and analysis.

How you can Catch the Rain

They used a number of electronic means -- including science community mailing lists, Twitter, Facebook, blogs and crowdsourcing sites -- to alert the general public towards the study and also to solicit samples.

For consistency, samples were collected on private property, from well-moored containers in open, outside locations every 12 hrs (8 a.m. and eight p.m. Eastern time).

As many as 685 samples were collected from greater than 125 volunteers at sites from New York to Indiana to New Brunswick, Canada. A lot of the samples were acquired in parts of the U.S. mid-Atlantic -- in which the storm's impact was finest -- but getting samples in the further reaches from the storm was type in permitting the scientists to research processes occurring at Sandy's margins.

The samples were shipped towards the Utah lab in November 2012 and examined for his or her composition of hydrogen and oxygen isotopes, which offer a fingerprint water sources, transport and rainout within the storm.

Within the storm

Isotopes are subtly variations of chemical factors that vary within their weight and, consequently, their physical behavior. For instance, heavier isotopes evaporate from fluids less readily and condense from vapor more readily. As water changes condition from liquid to vapor and the other way around, the versions in oxygen and hydrogen isotope ratios give scientists a sensitive tool to calculate the hydrologic budget -- that's, the inflow, output and storage water -- of huge cyclones.

For that research into the rain isotope data Bowen and Good partnered with graduate student Derek Mallia and connect professor John Lin within the U's department of atmospheric sciences. Mallia and Lin utilized a pc type of the climate which could "run the tape backwards" and track the origin from the rainwater backwards towards the locations where led moisture towards the storm.

Within this study, extremely low quantity of a heavy isotope oxygen-18 put together in samples in the southwest part of the storm, monitoring extreme deficits water as precipitation neared the storm's center. Utilizing their dense network of samples, the scientists could show this signature, which has additionally been accustomed to rebuild the appearance of prehistoric severe weather, was restricted to a narrow region from the storm in which the most intense precipitation was discovered.

As Sandy traveled north and it is intensity decreased, the oxygen-18 levels moderated. However, amounts of another isotope -- deuterium -- elevated in areas of the storm when Sandy collided using the dry air from the continental cold front. The scientists reason that this signal implies that the storm acquired more moisture, and, in the frontal system and from evaporation from the Atlantic, which brought to intense rain fall over Colonial.

"The isotope data give essentially different information than could be acquired from satellite imagery or any other conventional way of monitoring storms," states Good. "Satellite imagery provides you with details about the place of clouds and rain, however it cannot let you know where this water, and also the souped up that it adds towards the storm, originated from.Inch

Scientists anticipate that as these kinds of interactions be more effective recorded and additional analyzed, they can lead to advances in weather appliances may ultimately improve storm conjecture.

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Partners deploy underwater robots to improve hurricane science

September 9, 2013

A fleet of underwater robots is descending into waters off the east coast to collect data that could help improve storm intensity forecasts during future hurricane seasons. Several regions of the NOAA-led U.S. Integrated Ocean Observing System (IOOS®) are partnering to deploy 12 to 16 autonomous underwater robotic vehicles, also known as gliders, from Nova Scotia to Georgia.  

The gliders will be available through the peak fall Atlantic storm season to collect data on ocean conditions, which will help improve scientists’ understanding of hurricanes and pave the way for future improvements in hurricane intensity forecasts.  

“When storms are moving along our coasts, lives depend on accurate forecasts,” said Zdenka Willis, U.S. IOOS program director. “The unmanned gliders will allow us to collect data even in the middle of the storm and eventually provide this information to NOAA’s National Weather Service to help improve forecast precision so decision makers can keep people safe.”

Scientists will deploy the first gliders in the fleet in early September and continue deploying from different locations throughout the next two to three weeks. Each glider will be deployed for three to eight weeks, collecting data into October.

The underwater gliders can travel thousands of miles and continuously collect and send back ocean data. They can operate for several months at a time and can dive repeatedly to collect three-dimensional ocean observations.

Rutgers University is leading this combined science mission involving all three of the east coast IOOS regions: Northeast, Mid-Atlantic and Southeast. In addition to glider data, the mission will use satellite, moored buoy and coastal radar data. During the mission, the gliders will also collect acoustic data about fish and mammal migrations to improve the understanding of their behaviors.  

Collected glider data will go through NOAA’s National Data Buoy Center to NOAA’s National Weather Service, the U.S. Navy and other data users for modeling. Data from the glider missions will also be public and available on the IOOS Glider Asset Map and at http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/gliders.php

In addition to NOAA funding, provided through the IOOS regions, other funding sources for the project include the Office of Naval Research, the Environmental Protection Agency, NASA, a private donor from the University of Delaware, and Canada’s Ocean Technology Network.

IOOS is a federal, regional and private sector partnership working to enhance the ability to collect, deliver and use ocean information. IOOS delivers the data and information needed to increase understanding of our ocean and coasts so that decision makers can act to improve safety, enhance the economy, and protect the environment.

NOAA’s mission is to understand and predict changes in the Earth's environment, from the depths of the ocean to the surface of the sun, and to conserve and manage our coastal and marine resources. Join us on Facebook, Twitter, Instagram and our other social media channels.

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University and federal researchers to receive $1.3 million in NOAA investments for hurricane forecasting advances

September 4, 2013

Image of Tropical Storm Dorian on July 24, 2013, from NOAA's GOES East satellite.

High resolution (Credit: NOAA)

NOAA’s Office of Weather and Air Quality has funded seven multi-year proposals totaling $1.3 million this year for university partners and federal scientists to more rapidly and smoothly transfer new technology, research results, and observational advances through NOAA’s Joint Hurricane Testbed (JHT) to operational hurricane forecasting.

These projects further NOAA’s commitment to create a Weather-Ready Nation, in which the country is able to prepare for and respond to environmental events that affect safety, health, the environment, the economy, and homeland security.

“NOAA’s Joint Hurricane Testbed research provides an opportunity for researchers and forecasters to interact and produce results that can be transitioned into operations,” said John Cortinas, director of NOAA’s Office of Weather and Air Quality, the office that manages the U.S. Weather Research Program, which provides funding for JHT projects. “These important projects will help improve the information and tools that NOAA forecasters and researchers use to forecast tropical cyclones that impact the U.S. population and economy.”

Projects funded in 2013 include:

$327,000 – Improving important NOAA and Navy hurricane models: This project will improve two computer hurricane models by improving ways to better incorporate atmospheric and oceanic processes. Awarded to the University of Rhode Island (Isaac Ginis) and NOAA’s Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (Morris Bender). $221,300 – Testing new algorithm to better identify a storm’s center: This project will test the use of an automated satellite image center-fixing program to identify the center of tropical cyclones and help improve our ability to objectively and quickly identify the location of tropical storms. Awarded to the University of Wisconsin (Anthony Wimmers) and the Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies at the University of Wisconsin- Madison (Chris Velden). $197,792 – Examining if integrating 5 new global models could improve forecasts: This project’s aim is to examine and improve forecasts of tropical cyclone formation by combining the output from five global computer models in a way that produces a skillful forecast. (Awarded to Florida State University Bob Hart, Henry Fuelberg). $178,772 – Developing a visualization tool for assessing storm surge and inundation threats: This project will develop a tool for forecasters to access and visualize a growing and distributed set of storm surge predictions across the U.S. Awarded to the University of North Carolina (Brian Blanton, Rick Luettich) $152,257 – Improving confidence in hurricane intensity forecasts: Computer programs will be developed to estimate the confidence of the intensity forecasts from the NOAA National Hurricane Center’s primary intensity models and develop a consensus forecast from them. Awarded to the University of Miami (David Nolan), the Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere at Colorado State University (Andrea Schumacher), and NOAA’s Satellite and Information Service (Mark DeMaria) $141,903 – Predicting the rapid intensification of tropical cyclones:This project will develop a computer program to predict the onset of tropical cyclone rapid intensification using satellite data. Awarded to Florida International University (Haiyan Jiang) $86,000 – Estimating wind speed and duration inside a hurricane:This project will update and improve a computer program that estimates the probability that any location within a hurricane will experience 40, 60 or 75 mph winds, as well as the arrival and departure times of those winds, out to 7 days in advance. Awarded to the Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere (Andrea Schumacher) at the University of Colorado Boulder and NOAA’s Satellite and Information Service (Mark DeMaria).

Started in 2001, the JHT is supported in part by the NOAA Office of Weather and Air Quality through the U.S. Weather Research Program and is jointly managed by NOAA’s Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric Research and National Weather Service. To learn more, visit http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/jht/.

NOAA’s mission is to understand and predict changes in the Earth's environment, from the depths of the ocean to the surface of the sun, and to conserve and manage our coastal and marine resources. Join us on Facebook, Twitter and our other social media channels.

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Federal agencies remapping coastal areas damaged by Hurricane Sandy

August 20, 2013

In a Sandy-response project earlier this spring, a NOAA navigation response team — equipped with high-tech surveying equipment — searched for underwater storm debris and mapped the depths surrounding Liberty Island and Ellis Island.

High resolution (Credit: NOAA)

A day after the administration released the Hurricane Sandy Rebuilding Task Force progress report, three federal agencies have announced plans for remapping parts of the East Coast, where Hurricane Sandy altered seafloors and shorelines, destroyed buildings, and disrupted millions of lives last year.

NOAA, the U.S. Geological Survey, and the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers are using emergency supplemental funds provided by Congress to survey coastal waters and shorelines, acquiring data that will update East Coast land maps and nautical charts.

Using ships, aircraft, and satellites, the agencies will measure water depths, look for submerged debris, and record altered shorelines in high priority areas from South Carolina to Maine, as stipulated by Congress in the Disaster Relief Appropriations Act of 2013. The areas to be remapped will be based on their relative dangers to navigation, effects from the storm, and discussions with state and local officials as well as the maritime industry.

In Sandy's immediate aftermath, NOAA survey vessels responded to calls for assistance from storm-ravaged areas in New York, New Jersey, Delaware Bay, and Virginia. This navigation response team cleared a path to launch at Marcus Hook.

High resolution (Credit: NOAA)

“Our approach is to map once, then use the data for many purposes,” said NOAA Rear Admiral Gerd Glang, director of NOAA’s Office of Coast Survey. “Under the Ocean and Coastal Mapping Integration Act, NOAA and its federal partners are taking a 'whole ocean' approach to get as much useful information as possible from every dollar invested to help states build more resilient coastlines.”

The data, much of which will be stored at NOAA’s National Geophysical Data Center, and through NOAA’s Digital Coast, will be open to local, state, and federal agencies as well as academia and the general public. The information can be applied to updating nautical charts, removing marine debris, replenishing beaches, making repairs, and planning for future storms and coastal resilience.

As the sun rose over New York on Nov. 1, NOAA Corps Ensign Lindsey Norman retrieved the side scan sonar that NOAA Ship Thomas Jefferson used to survey the Hudson River, allowing fuel barge traffic to resume.

High resolution (Credit: NOAA)

The three federal agencies are collaborating for greater topographic and hydrographic coverage and to promote efficiency. Earlier this year, a NOAA navigation response team surveyed the waters around Liberty Island and Ellis Island in New York harbor, measuring water depths and searching for debris that could cause a danger to navigation. Also, NOAA Ship Thomas Jefferson began surveying the approaches to the Delaware Bay in June.

NOAA plans to contract with commercial firms for additional hydrographic survey projects and high resolution topographic and bathymetric elevation data and imagery in the region.

The U.S. Geological Survey will collect very high-resolution elevation data to support scientific studies related to the hurricane recovery and rebuilding activities, watershed planning and resource management. USGS will collect data in coastal and inland areas depending on their hurricane damages and the age and quality of existing data. The elevation data will become part of a new initiative, called the 3D Elevation Program, to systematically acquire improved, high-resolution elevation data across the United States.

Within hours of Sandy's departure, NOAA deployed research vessel Bay Hydro II to survey ship channels in the Hampton Roads area of Virginia, speeding the resumption of shipping and naval operations.

High resolution (Credit: NOAA)

“The human deaths and the powerful landscape-altering destruction caused by Hurricane Sandy are a stark reminder that our nation must become more resilient to coastal hazards,” said Kevin Gallagher, associate director for Core Science Systems at USGS. "Sandy's most fundamental lesson is that storm vulnerability is a direct consequence of the elevation of coastal communities in relation to storm waves. Communities will benefit greatly from the higher resolution and accuracy of new elevation information to better prepare for storm impacts, develop response strategies, and design resilient and cost-efficient post-storm redevelopment."

The Army Corps of Engineers and its Joint Airborne Lidar Bathymetry Technical Center of Expertise are covering particular project areas in Massachusetts, Virginia, and New Jersey. They will coordinate operations, research, and development in airborne lidar bathymetry and complementary technologies for USACE, NOAA, and the U.S. Navy.

Preliminary U.S. damage estimates are near $50 billion, making Sandy the second-costliest cyclone to hit the United States since 1900. There were at least 147 direct deaths recorded across the Atlantic basin due to Sandy, with 72 of these fatalities occurring in the mid-Atlantic and northeastern United States. This is the greatest number of U.S. direct fatalities related to a tropical cyclone outside of the southern states since Hurricane Agnes in 1972.

NOAA’s mission is to understand and predict changes in the Earth's environment, from the depths of the ocean to the surface of the sun, and to conserve and manage our coastal and marine resources. Join us on Facebook, Twitter and our other social media channels.

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Atlantic hurricane season on track to be above-normal

August 8, 2013

Image of Tropical Storm Dorian on July 24, 2013, from NOAA's GOES East satellite.

High resolution (Credit: NOAA)

NOAA issued its updated Atlantic hurricane season outlook today saying the season is shaping up to be above normal with the possibility that it could be very active. The season has already produced four named storms, with the peak of the season – mid-August through October – yet to come.
“Our confidence for an above-normal season is still high because the predicted atmospheric and oceanic conditions that are favorable for storm development have materialized,” said Gerry Bell, Ph.D., lead seasonal hurricane forecaster at NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, a division of the National Weather Service. “Also, two of the four named storms to-date formed in the deep tropical Atlantic, which historically is an indicator of an active season.”
The conditions in place now are similar to those that have produced many active Atlantic hurricane seasons since 1995, and include above-average Atlantic sea surface temperatures and a stronger rainy season in West Africa, which produces wind patterns that help turn storm systems there into tropical storms and hurricanes.
The updated outlook calls for a 70 percent chance of an above-normal season. Across the Atlantic Basin for the entire season – June 1 to November 30 – NOAA’s updated seasonal outlook (which includes the activity to date of tropical storms Andrea, Barry, Chantal, and Dorian) projects a 70 percent chance for each of the following ranges:

13 to 19 named storms (top winds of 39 mph or higher), including 6 to 9 hurricanes (top winds of 74 mph or higher), of which3 to 5 could be major hurricanes (Category 3, 4 or 5; winds of at least 111 mph)

These ranges are above the 30-year seasonal averages of 12 named storms, six hurricanes and three major hurricanes.

The updated outlook is similar to the pre-season outlook issued in May, but with a reduced expectation for extreme levels of activity. Motivating this change is a decreased likelihood that La Niña will develop and bring its reduced wind shear that further strengthens the hurricane season. Other factors are the lack of hurricanes through July, more variability in the wind patterns across the tropical Atlantic Ocean and slightly lower hurricane season model predictions. In May, the outlook called for 13-20 named storms, 7-11 hurricanes and 3-6 major hurricanes.

“The peak of the hurricane season is almost upon us and it’s important to remain prepared for hurricanes through November," said Joe Nimmich, FEMA Associate Administrator for Response and Recovery. "Make sure to review your family emergency plan, check that your emergency kit is stocked and consider insurance options. Learn more about how you can prepare for hurricanes at www.ready.gov/hurricanes.”

NOAA’s mission is to understand and predict changes in the Earth's environment, from the depths of the ocean to the surface of the sun, and to conserve and manage our coastal and marine resources. Join us on Facebook, Twitter and our other social media channels.

View the original article here

Partners deploy underwater robots to improve hurricane science

September 9, 2013

A fleet of underwater robots is descending into waters off the east coast to collect data that could help improve storm intensity forecasts during future hurricane seasons. Several regions of the NOAA-led U.S. Integrated Ocean Observing System (IOOS®) are partnering to deploy 12 to 16 autonomous underwater robotic vehicles, also known as gliders, from Nova Scotia to Georgia.  

The gliders will be available through the peak fall Atlantic storm season to collect data on ocean conditions, which will help improve scientists’ understanding of hurricanes and pave the way for future improvements in hurricane intensity forecasts.  

“When storms are moving along our coasts, lives depend on accurate forecasts,” said Zdenka Willis, U.S. IOOS program director. “The unmanned gliders will allow us to collect data even in the middle of the storm and eventually provide this information to NOAA’s National Weather Service to help improve forecast precision so decision makers can keep people safe.”

Scientists will deploy the first gliders in the fleet in early September and continue deploying from different locations throughout the next two to three weeks. Each glider will be deployed for three to eight weeks, collecting data into October.

The underwater gliders can travel thousands of miles and continuously collect and send back ocean data. They can operate for several months at a time and can dive repeatedly to collect three-dimensional ocean observations.

Rutgers University is leading this combined science mission involving all three of the east coast IOOS regions: Northeast, Mid-Atlantic and Southeast. In addition to glider data, the mission will use satellite, moored buoy and coastal radar data. During the mission, the gliders will also collect acoustic data about fish and mammal migrations to improve the understanding of their behaviors.  

Collected glider data will go through NOAA’s National Data Buoy Center to NOAA’s National Weather Service, the U.S. Navy and other data users for modeling. Data from the glider missions will also be public and available on the IOOS Glider Asset Map and at http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/gliders.php

In addition to NOAA funding, provided through the IOOS regions, other funding sources for the project include the Office of Naval Research, the Environmental Protection Agency, NASA, a private donor from the University of Delaware, and Canada’s Ocean Technology Network.

IOOS is a federal, regional and private sector partnership working to enhance the ability to collect, deliver and use ocean information. IOOS delivers the data and information needed to increase understanding of our ocean and coasts so that decision makers can act to improve safety, enhance the economy, and protect the environment.

NOAA’s mission is to understand and predict changes in the Earth's environment, from the depths of the ocean to the surface of the sun, and to conserve and manage our coastal and marine resources. Join us on Facebook, Twitter, Instagram and our other social media channels.

View the original article here

Atlantic hurricane season on track to be above-normal

August 8, 2013

Image of Tropical Storm Dorian on July 24, 2013, from NOAA's GOES East satellite.

High resolution (Credit: NOAA)

NOAA issued its updated Atlantic hurricane season outlook today saying the season is shaping up to be above normal with the possibility that it could be very active. The season has already produced four named storms, with the peak of the season – mid-August through October – yet to come.
“Our confidence for an above-normal season is still high because the predicted atmospheric and oceanic conditions that are favorable for storm development have materialized,” said Gerry Bell, Ph.D., lead seasonal hurricane forecaster at NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, a division of the National Weather Service. “Also, two of the four named storms to-date formed in the deep tropical Atlantic, which historically is an indicator of an active season.”
The conditions in place now are similar to those that have produced many active Atlantic hurricane seasons since 1995, and include above-average Atlantic sea surface temperatures and a stronger rainy season in West Africa, which produces wind patterns that help turn storm systems there into tropical storms and hurricanes.
The updated outlook calls for a 70 percent chance of an above-normal season. Across the Atlantic Basin for the entire season – June 1 to November 30 – NOAA’s updated seasonal outlook (which includes the activity to date of tropical storms Andrea, Barry, Chantal, and Dorian) projects a 70 percent chance for each of the following ranges:

13 to 19 named storms (top winds of 39 mph or higher), including 6 to 9 hurricanes (top winds of 74 mph or higher), of which3 to 5 could be major hurricanes (Category 3, 4 or 5; winds of at least 111 mph)

These ranges are above the 30-year seasonal averages of 12 named storms, six hurricanes and three major hurricanes.

The updated outlook is similar to the pre-season outlook issued in May, but with a reduced expectation for extreme levels of activity. Motivating this change is a decreased likelihood that La Niña will develop and bring its reduced wind shear that further strengthens the hurricane season. Other factors are the lack of hurricanes through July, more variability in the wind patterns across the tropical Atlantic Ocean and slightly lower hurricane season model predictions. In May, the outlook called for 13-20 named storms, 7-11 hurricanes and 3-6 major hurricanes.

“The peak of the hurricane season is almost upon us and it’s important to remain prepared for hurricanes through November," said Joe Nimmich, FEMA Associate Administrator for Response and Recovery. "Make sure to review your family emergency plan, check that your emergency kit is stocked and consider insurance options. Learn more about how you can prepare for hurricanes at www.ready.gov/hurricanes.”

NOAA’s mission is to understand and predict changes in the Earth's environment, from the depths of the ocean to the surface of the sun, and to conserve and manage our coastal and marine resources. Join us on Facebook, Twitter and our other social media channels.

View the original article here

University and federal researchers to receive $1.3 million in NOAA investments for hurricane forecasting advances

September 4, 2013

Image of Tropical Storm Dorian on July 24, 2013, from NOAA's GOES East satellite.

High resolution (Credit: NOAA)

NOAA’s Office of Weather and Air Quality has funded seven multi-year proposals totaling $1.3 million this year for university partners and federal scientists to more rapidly and smoothly transfer new technology, research results, and observational advances through NOAA’s Joint Hurricane Testbed (JHT) to operational hurricane forecasting.

These projects further NOAA’s commitment to create a Weather-Ready Nation, in which the country is able to prepare for and respond to environmental events that affect safety, health, the environment, the economy, and homeland security.

“NOAA’s Joint Hurricane Testbed research provides an opportunity for researchers and forecasters to interact and produce results that can be transitioned into operations,” said John Cortinas, director of NOAA’s Office of Weather and Air Quality, the office that manages the U.S. Weather Research Program, which provides funding for JHT projects. “These important projects will help improve the information and tools that NOAA forecasters and researchers use to forecast tropical cyclones that impact the U.S. population and economy.”

Projects funded in 2013 include:

$327,000 – Improving important NOAA and Navy hurricane models: This project will improve two computer hurricane models by improving ways to better incorporate atmospheric and oceanic processes. Awarded to the University of Rhode Island (Isaac Ginis) and NOAA’s Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (Morris Bender). $221,300 – Testing new algorithm to better identify a storm’s center: This project will test the use of an automated satellite image center-fixing program to identify the center of tropical cyclones and help improve our ability to objectively and quickly identify the location of tropical storms. Awarded to the University of Wisconsin (Anthony Wimmers) and the Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies at the University of Wisconsin- Madison (Chris Velden). $197,792 – Examining if integrating 5 new global models could improve forecasts: This project’s aim is to examine and improve forecasts of tropical cyclone formation by combining the output from five global computer models in a way that produces a skillful forecast. (Awarded to Florida State University Bob Hart, Henry Fuelberg). $178,772 – Developing a visualization tool for assessing storm surge and inundation threats: This project will develop a tool for forecasters to access and visualize a growing and distributed set of storm surge predictions across the U.S. Awarded to the University of North Carolina (Brian Blanton, Rick Luettich) $152,257 – Improving confidence in hurricane intensity forecasts: Computer programs will be developed to estimate the confidence of the intensity forecasts from the NOAA National Hurricane Center’s primary intensity models and develop a consensus forecast from them. Awarded to the University of Miami (David Nolan), the Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere at Colorado State University (Andrea Schumacher), and NOAA’s Satellite and Information Service (Mark DeMaria) $141,903 – Predicting the rapid intensification of tropical cyclones:This project will develop a computer program to predict the onset of tropical cyclone rapid intensification using satellite data. Awarded to Florida International University (Haiyan Jiang) $86,000 – Estimating wind speed and duration inside a hurricane:This project will update and improve a computer program that estimates the probability that any location within a hurricane will experience 40, 60 or 75 mph winds, as well as the arrival and departure times of those winds, out to 7 days in advance. Awarded to the Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere (Andrea Schumacher) at the University of Colorado Boulder and NOAA’s Satellite and Information Service (Mark DeMaria).

Started in 2001, the JHT is supported in part by the NOAA Office of Weather and Air Quality through the U.S. Weather Research Program and is jointly managed by NOAA’s Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric Research and National Weather Service. To learn more, visit http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/jht/.

NOAA’s mission is to understand and predict changes in the Earth's environment, from the depths of the ocean to the surface of the sun, and to conserve and manage our coastal and marine resources. Join us on Facebook, Twitter and our other social media channels.

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Federal agencies remapping coastal areas damaged by Hurricane Sandy

August 20, 2013

In a Sandy-response project earlier this spring, a NOAA navigation response team — equipped with high-tech surveying equipment — searched for underwater storm debris and mapped the depths surrounding Liberty Island and Ellis Island.

High resolution (Credit: NOAA)

A day after the administration released the Hurricane Sandy Rebuilding Task Force progress report, three federal agencies have announced plans for remapping parts of the East Coast, where Hurricane Sandy altered seafloors and shorelines, destroyed buildings, and disrupted millions of lives last year.

NOAA, the U.S. Geological Survey, and the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers are using emergency supplemental funds provided by Congress to survey coastal waters and shorelines, acquiring data that will update East Coast land maps and nautical charts.

Using ships, aircraft, and satellites, the agencies will measure water depths, look for submerged debris, and record altered shorelines in high priority areas from South Carolina to Maine, as stipulated by Congress in the Disaster Relief Appropriations Act of 2013. The areas to be remapped will be based on their relative dangers to navigation, effects from the storm, and discussions with state and local officials as well as the maritime industry.

In Sandy's immediate aftermath, NOAA survey vessels responded to calls for assistance from storm-ravaged areas in New York, New Jersey, Delaware Bay, and Virginia. This navigation response team cleared a path to launch at Marcus Hook.

High resolution (Credit: NOAA)

“Our approach is to map once, then use the data for many purposes,” said NOAA Rear Admiral Gerd Glang, director of NOAA’s Office of Coast Survey. “Under the Ocean and Coastal Mapping Integration Act, NOAA and its federal partners are taking a 'whole ocean' approach to get as much useful information as possible from every dollar invested to help states build more resilient coastlines.”

The data, much of which will be stored at NOAA’s National Geophysical Data Center, and through NOAA’s Digital Coast, will be open to local, state, and federal agencies as well as academia and the general public. The information can be applied to updating nautical charts, removing marine debris, replenishing beaches, making repairs, and planning for future storms and coastal resilience.

As the sun rose over New York on Nov. 1, NOAA Corps Ensign Lindsey Norman retrieved the side scan sonar that NOAA Ship Thomas Jefferson used to survey the Hudson River, allowing fuel barge traffic to resume.

High resolution (Credit: NOAA)

The three federal agencies are collaborating for greater topographic and hydrographic coverage and to promote efficiency. Earlier this year, a NOAA navigation response team surveyed the waters around Liberty Island and Ellis Island in New York harbor, measuring water depths and searching for debris that could cause a danger to navigation. Also, NOAA Ship Thomas Jefferson began surveying the approaches to the Delaware Bay in June.

NOAA plans to contract with commercial firms for additional hydrographic survey projects and high resolution topographic and bathymetric elevation data and imagery in the region.

The U.S. Geological Survey will collect very high-resolution elevation data to support scientific studies related to the hurricane recovery and rebuilding activities, watershed planning and resource management. USGS will collect data in coastal and inland areas depending on their hurricane damages and the age and quality of existing data. The elevation data will become part of a new initiative, called the 3D Elevation Program, to systematically acquire improved, high-resolution elevation data across the United States.

Within hours of Sandy's departure, NOAA deployed research vessel Bay Hydro II to survey ship channels in the Hampton Roads area of Virginia, speeding the resumption of shipping and naval operations.

High resolution (Credit: NOAA)

“The human deaths and the powerful landscape-altering destruction caused by Hurricane Sandy are a stark reminder that our nation must become more resilient to coastal hazards,” said Kevin Gallagher, associate director for Core Science Systems at USGS. "Sandy's most fundamental lesson is that storm vulnerability is a direct consequence of the elevation of coastal communities in relation to storm waves. Communities will benefit greatly from the higher resolution and accuracy of new elevation information to better prepare for storm impacts, develop response strategies, and design resilient and cost-efficient post-storm redevelopment."

The Army Corps of Engineers and its Joint Airborne Lidar Bathymetry Technical Center of Expertise are covering particular project areas in Massachusetts, Virginia, and New Jersey. They will coordinate operations, research, and development in airborne lidar bathymetry and complementary technologies for USACE, NOAA, and the U.S. Navy.

Preliminary U.S. damage estimates are near $50 billion, making Sandy the second-costliest cyclone to hit the United States since 1900. There were at least 147 direct deaths recorded across the Atlantic basin due to Sandy, with 72 of these fatalities occurring in the mid-Atlantic and northeastern United States. This is the greatest number of U.S. direct fatalities related to a tropical cyclone outside of the southern states since Hurricane Agnes in 1972.

NOAA’s mission is to understand and predict changes in the Earth's environment, from the depths of the ocean to the surface of the sun, and to conserve and manage our coastal and marine resources. Join us on Facebook, Twitter and our other social media channels.

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Remnant of Hurricane Isaac lurks in Gulf of Mexico

NEW ORLEANS – If a well-traveled remnant of last week's Hurricane Isaac becomes a tropical system in the Gulf of Mexico, it would be a rare but not unprecedented event, forecasters say.

NOAA

A satellite image shows the remnants of Hurricane Isaac spinning in the Gulf of Mexico.

NOAA

A satellite image shows the remnants of Hurricane Isaac spinning in the Gulf of Mexico.

In 2005, a remnant from a tropical depression that dissipated near Puerto Rico eventually became part of a new depression, which became the catastrophic Hurricane Katrina.

"This is the only example that we can find in the modern era where the partial remains of a system went on to regenerate and, so, get a different designation," National Hurricane Center meteorologist Todd Kimberlain said Thursday.

Isaac struck the Gulf Coast last week, dumping heavy rain across southern Louisiana, Mississippi and Alabama and pushing in storm surge that led to widespread flooding. Thousands of homes were damaged in Louisiana, and many were left without power for days. It then moved inland across Arkansas and through the Midwest before coming back down over the Gulf.

On Wednesday, National Weather Service meteorologist Shawn O'Neill referred to the remnant as "the spawn of Isaac."

Other systems have lost tropical characteristics over land and become tropical storms again over water. Classifying a system as tropical depends on scientific measurements to determine its circulation and how well organized the system is, among other factors.

Hurricane Ivan in 2004 lasted more than 22 days in one form or another from the time it was born as a tropical depression, according to online Hurricane Center archives. It walloped south Alabama and the Florida panhandle as a Category 3 hurricane, then lost tropical characteristics as it traveled north and then went back out to sea off the coast of Delaware, Maryland and Virginia.

Then it headed south, crossed Florida as a low pressure system and became Tropical Storm Ivan again in the Gulf. It hit Louisiana as a tropical depression.

The area of disturbed weather in the Gulf is a different phenomenon. If it becomes a tropical cyclone, it would get a new name — next on the list is Nadine. That's because it is not the same circulation system that hit southeast Louisiana and coastal Mississippi last week, causing severe flooding and seven deaths.

The circulation of Isaac dissipated over the Ohio valley several days ago, Kimberlain said. What drifted back down south was only a small piece of the system.

"It's a remnant of Isaac, not THE remnant of Isaac," said Barry Keim, the state climatologist at LSU.

As of Thursday, the Isaac remnant was given a 40 percent chance of strengthening into a tropical cyclone. Dry air and upper-level winds were preventing it from getting stronger Thursday.

However, it was not yet clear how long those conditions would last, nor how an approaching cold front would affect the system. Furthermore, if the system does become a tropical depression, it is too soon to tell how strong it might become or exactly what path it might take.

Copyright 2012 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed.For more information about reprints & permissions, visit our FAQ's. To report corrections and clarifications, contact Standards Editor Brent Jones. For publication consideration in the newspaper, send comments to letters@usatoday.com. Include name, phone number, city and state for verification. To view our corrections, go to corrections.usatoday.com.

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Bermuda braces for approaching Hurricane Leslie

HAMILTON, Bermuda – Tourists postponed holidays in Bermuda and locals stocked up on emergency supplies as Hurricane Leslie slowly approached the wealthy British Atlantic territory on Thursday.

AFP/Getty Images

A satellite image shows Hurricane Leslie churning in the Atlantic Ocean near Bermuda on Wednesday. Leslie is projected to pass over or near Bermuda on Sunday.

AFP/Getty Images

A satellite image shows Hurricane Leslie churning in the Atlantic Ocean near Bermuda on Wednesday. Leslie is projected to pass over or near Bermuda on Sunday.

Hotel cancellations have been reported across the territory, which is popular with tourists for its pink sand beaches and with businesspeople as an offshore financial haven.

Leslie's center was forecast to pass to the east of Bermuda on Sunday morning, possibly as a Category 2 hurricane with winds of nearly 105 mph.

On Thursday, it was barely moving northward at about 2 mph over open ocean, centered some 430 miles south-southeast of Bermuda. The U.S. National Hurricane Center said it was expected to intensify on Friday.

South shore beaches were closed as the approaching storm whipped up surf and residents stocked up on food, propane, tarp, flashlights and water.

"It's great to see people are not waiting until the last minute. We only have three empty shopping carts left at the moment," said Henry Durham, the boss at Gorham's hardware store.

Some were relatively unfazed since the territory enforces strict building codes to withstand rough weather. Homes must be built with walls at least 8 inches thick and be able to withstand 150 mph wind gusts. Many power and phone lines run underground.

British software developer Toby Crawford and thousands of other expatriate workers in Bermuda gradually got ready for the hurricane's pounding rains and driving winds.

"The landlord assures me we have a very sturdy roof," said Crawford, who moved to Bermuda from London a year ago with his wife, Michelle. "I'm looking forward to it, having not experienced one before."

Michelle Crawford said the couple will do their best to combat boredom while being confined to their apartment in Pembroke, near the capital of Hamilton.

"I have to admit we've opted for the alcohol route as well. We've heard that people have hurricane parties, but so far Toby and I are just planning to hole up at our house with books, board games and wine," she said.

On Wednesday, when Leslie was forecast to nearly make a direct hit, National Security Minister Wayne Perinchief urged all residents to "prepare for the worst."

Swells from Leslie have been affecting Bermuda, the U.S. East Coast, the northern Leeward Islands, Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands. The swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents.

Meanwhile, Hurricane Michael on Thursday strengthened to a Category 3 storm, the first of the Atlantic hurricane season.

It was not a threat to land and was spinning over open ocean about 980 miles west-southwest of the Azores.

Copyright 2012 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed.For more information about reprints & permissions, visit our FAQ's. To report corrections and clarifications, contact Standards Editor Brent Jones. For publication consideration in the newspaper, send comments to letters@usatoday.com. Include name, phone number, city and state for verification. To view our corrections, go to corrections.usatoday.com.

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Feds bump hurricane forecast to 8

Federal forecasters say warmer-than-normal sea surface temperatures point to an above-average number of hurricanes -- as many as eight -- in the Atlantic Basin this season, including three "major" hurricanes, despite the arrival of of El Niño this month or in September.

UPDATE:  Ernesto rakes Mexico

Meteorologists from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) expect 12 to 17 named storms for the full season, running from June 1 to Nov. 30, including five to eight hurricanes.

NOAA predicts two or three "major" hurricanes with winds of at least 111 mph.

Six named storms have already formed this year, including Hurricanes Chris and Ernesto. Tropical Storm Debby did the most damage in the U.S., killing seven people and drenching northern Florida.

"We are increasing the likelihood of an above-normal season because storm-conducive wind patterns and warmer-than-normal sea surface temperatures are now in place in the Atlantic," says Gerry Bell, a hurricane forecaster at the Climate Prediction Center. "These conditions are linked to the ongoing high activity era for Atlantic hurricanes that began in 1995. Also, strong early season activity is generally indicative of a more active season."

However, NOAA forecasters also say that El Niño, which is a warming of tropical Pacific Ocean water that affects weather around the world, will likely develop this month or in September.

Bell says El Niño is "a competing factor" because it strengthens the vertical wind shear over the Atlantic, which suppresses storm development, but is not likely to weigh in until later in the season.

Earlier this month, another updated forecast -- from experts at Colorado State University -- predicted 14 named storms, including six hurricanes, of which two would be classified as "major."

A typical year brings 12 named storms, including six hurricanes.

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Hurricane storm surge imperils 4 million homes

A survey of the USA's vulnerability to hurricane-driven storm-surge damage found that more than four million homes worth over $700 billion are at risk along the Atlantic and Gulf Coasts.

Storm surge — the massive mound of water that builds up and comes ashore as a hurricane moves over the ocean or Gulf of Mexico— is typically the most dangerous aspect of hurricanes.

The report, released this morning by research and consulting firm CoreLogic of Santa Ana, Calif., found that Florida is the state most prone to storm-surge damage, with about 1.4 million homes at risk, worth a total value of $188 billion.

Louisiana ranks second in total number properties at risk with nearly 500,000, while New York is second in total value of coastal properties possibly exposed at $111 billion.

At the city level, the New York City metro area contains both the highest number of vulnerable properties and the highest exposure in total property value at risk .

"The summer of 2011 gave us some startling insight into the damage that even a weak storm can cause in the New York City metro area," said Howard Botts of CoreLogic. "Hurricane Irene was downgraded to a tropical storm as it passed through New Jersey and New York City, but the impact of the storm was still estimated at as much as $6 billion."

The Atlantic hurricane season began last week and lasts until Nov. 30.

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Federal forecasters predict a near-normal hurricane season

The federal government is predicting a near-normal hurricane season in the Atlantic this year: anywhere from four to eight hurricanes.

NOAA

Hurricane Irene, the most devastating storm of 2011, spins off the Mid-Atlantic coast in August.

NOAA

Hurricane Irene, the most devastating storm of 2011, spins off the Mid-Atlantic coast in August.

A typical season, based on the years 1981-2010, sees six hurricanes.

The Atlantic season runs from June 1 to Nov. 30. This forecast, out Thursday from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), covers any storms that form in the Atlantic Ocean, the Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico.

Overall, NOAA predicts that nine to 15 named tropical storms are likely. Tropical storms have top wind speeds of 39 mph or higher. Once a storm's winds reach 74 mph, it becomes a hurricane.

According to NOAA, two current climate factors will limit hurricane development, if they persist:

The first is stronger-than-average wind shear over the Atlantic, which, if it persists, can tear apart burgeoning hurricanes before they start, says forecaster Todd Kimberlain of the National Hurricane Center.

Wind shear is when winds are roaring from different directions in different layers of the atmosphere. Winds recently have come from the east at low levels, Kimberlain says, while they've been from the west at upper levels, about 40,000 feet above the surface.

The second factor is cooler-than-average sea-surface temperatures in the eastern Atlantic Ocean. Warm water, usually of 80 degrees or above, helps fuel hurricanes.

"Another potentially competing climate factor would be El Niño, if it develops by late summer to early fall," says Gerry Bell, lead seasonal hurricane forecaster at NOAA's Climate Prediction Center.

El Niño is a warming of tropical Pacific ocean water. The opposite pattern, La Niña, has been diminishing in recent months.

"In that case, conditions could be less conducive for hurricane formation and intensification during the peak months (August-October) of the season, possibly shifting the activity toward the lower end of the predicted range," he says.

This month, two of the biggest private weather forecasting companies, AccuWeather and The Weather Channel, predicted an average or slightly below-average hurricane season. AccuWeather said 12 named tropical storms will form, five of them hurricanes; The Weather Channel forecasts 11 tropical storms — of which six will be hurricanes.

Last month, the meteorologists at Colorado State University estimated 10 tropical storms, of which four would be hurricanes. Colorado State University meteorologist William Gray was the first scientist to make seasonal hurricane forecasts in the 1980s.

Since 2000, NOAA's tropical storm and hurricane forecasts have been more right than wrong, but not by much: NOAA's prediction has been accurate in seven out of the past 12 years, according to a USA TODAY analysis.

NOAA's prediction was too low in four years and too high in just one year: 2006. Ten of the 12 years have seen above-average activity for tropical storms and hurricanes.

So far this year, one tropical storm has formed in the Atlantic: Alberto, which spun off the Southeast coast earlier this week.

Does the early start portend an active season? No, says the hurricane center's Kimberlain. "There is little, if any, relationship between the early occurrence of a storm at higher latitudes and the type of activity we will ultimately observe later in the season."

Forecasters also released their prediction for the Eastern Pacific basin, where 12 to 18 named storms are expected. An average Eastern Pacific hurricane season produces 15 named storms. Eastern Pacific storms and hurricanes primarily stay out to sea and seldom affect the USA, although some storms do hit the west coast of Mexico.

Two Eastern Pacific storms have formed this year: Tropical Storm Aletta, which spun harmlessly out to sea, and Hurricane Bud, which could affect the west coast of Mexico by this weekend.

For more information about reprints & permissions, visit our FAQ's. To report corrections and clarifications, contact Standards Editor Brent Jones. For publication consideration in the newspaper, send comments to letters@usatoday.com. Include name, phone number, city and state for verification. To view our corrections, go to corrections.usatoday.com.

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Officials ponder hurricane threat at GOP convention in Fla.

TALLAHASSEE, Fla. (AP) – The Republican National Convention scheduled in Tampa for late August would be among the casualties if the area were threatened then by a hurricane, Florida Lt. Gov. Jennifer Carroll said Wednesday.

AP

An infrared satellite image shows Hurricane Frances spinning northeast of Tampa in 2004. The four-day GOP convention is scheduled for Aug. 27 to 30, smack dab in the middle of Florida's hurricane season.

AP

An infrared satellite image shows Hurricane Frances spinning northeast of Tampa in 2004. The four-day GOP convention is scheduled for Aug. 27 to 30, smack dab in the middle of Florida's hurricane season.

"Public safety — that's going to be the number one priority," Carroll said. "We can have the convention again."

However, rescheduling a national political convention could be difficult heading into Labor Day weekend and with the Democratic National Convention slated for Charlotte, N.C., the following week.

Carroll said Florida Gov. Rick Scott, who returns Thursday from a trade mission to Spain, would make the call if the GOP convention were threatened by severe weather.

"This is his state, and public safety is primary," Carroll reiterated.

State emergency workers have spent recent days tracking a fictitious Category 3 Hurricane Gispert that would hit Tarpon Springs, just north of Tampa, two days after the convention is scheduled to begin.

"We'd be dealing a lot with storm surge issues down there," said Bryan Koon, the state's emergency management director. "We're also working on a high number of potential evacuations."

The four-day GOP convention is scheduled for Aug. 27 to 30, smack dab in the middle of Florida's hurricane season. Two of the most damaging hurricanes to hit the U.S. reached Florida in late August. Hurricane Katrina made landfall north of Miami on Aug. 25, 2005 while Hurricane Andrew came ashore with 145 mph winds just south of Miami on Aug. 24, 1992.

Florida heads into the official six-month storm season that begins June 1 having evaded a hurricane on its shores for an unprecedented six straight years. And the forecast for a seventh straight year without a hurricane is also encouraging.

"I want to remind Floridians that 20 years ago the same prediction was made," Carroll said. "In August 1992, Florida was forever altered. Hurricane Andrew changed the landscape of Florida."

Maj. General Emmett R. Titshaw Jr., adjutant general of the Florida National Guard, said Wednesday that he presently has 9,000 available troops for assistance if needed.

"The team that's in place is prepared to handle the various emergencies that we foresee," Carroll said.

Copyright 2012 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed.For more information about reprints & permissions, visit our FAQ's. To report corrections and clarifications, contact Standards Editor Brent Jones. For publication consideration in the newspaper, send comments to letters@usatoday.com. Include name, phone number, city and state for verification. To view our corrections, go to corrections.usatoday.com.

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Irene was tropical storm, not hurricane, over NJ (AP)

MIAMI – Irene was a tropical storm — not a hurricane — when it made landfall in New Jersey in August, forecasters at the National Hurricane Center have determined after a review.

The deadly storm was a Category 1 hurricane when it made landfall Aug. 27 in North Carolina. The storm made landfall again Aug. 28 near Atlantic City, N.J., where forecasters had said it was a hurricane with 75 mph winds.

However, after reviewing their data, forecasters have determined that Irene had weakened to a tropical storm with winds around 69 mph when it crossed New Jersey's coast. Hurricanes have top winds of at least 74 mph.

"It's a very small change," said Eric Blake, a hurricane specialist at the hurricane center. "The difference residents would see is about the same. There's no perceivable difference."

Forecasters posted their report on Irene on Friday. The hurricane center occasionally upgrades or downgrades tropical storms as it reviews storm data at the end of the six-month hurricane season. In Irene's case, a review of the data supported downgrading the storm at the time it hit New Jersey, Blake said.

"Five-knot changes like that happen all the time. At this time, it just happened near land," Blake said.

Irene was one of the costliest storms in U.S. history. It caught much of the Eastern seaboard by surprise as it churned up the coast, prompting mass evacuations in New York City before it dumped torrential rains over parts of New England. Devastating flooding in Vermont damaged or destroyed hundreds of miles of roads, scores of bridges and hundreds of homes and left about a dozen communities cut off except for supply drops by National Guard helicopters.

The storm killed more than 50 people in the U.S., Caribbean and Canada.

The six-month Atlantic hurricane season that ended Nov. 30 produced 19 tropical storms, including seven hurricanes, making it one of the busiest seasons on record. It was the sixth straight year without a major hurricane making landfall in the U.S.

Hurricanes are considered major when they reach Category 3, with top winds of at least 111 mph. Storms are named when their winds reach speeds of at least 39 mph.

The 2011 season's storm totals include an upgrade of Tropical Storm Nate to hurricane status and the addition of an unnamed tropical storm that formed in early September over the open Atlantic between Bermuda and Nova Scotia.

The next Atlantic hurricane season begins June 1.

___

Online:

National Hurricane Center: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

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Active 2011 Hurricane Season Comes to an End (LiveScience.com)

The 2011 Atlantic hurricane season was forecast to be a doozy and it delivered.

The season officially ends tomorrow (Nov. 30) and its legacy includes 19 tropical storms, seven hurricanes and three major hurricanes — including the devastating Hurricane Irene, the only hurricane to strike the United States this year. Irene was the first U.S.-land-falling hurricane in three years. Its billion-dollar damage brought the United States back to the reality of hurricanes after years of quiet.

"Irene reminded us that the Northeast can and does get hit byhurricanes," said Jeff Weber, an atmospheric scientist at the University Corporation for Atmospheric Research in Boulder, Colo.

Active trend

The 2011 season continued a trend of active hurricane seasons that began in 1995, according to the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). Tropical storms came in with the third-highest total, at 19 (tied with 1887, 1995 and 2010), since records began, in 1851. An average season has 11 tropical storms. [See a video of the season's storms.]

The seven hurricanes and three major hurricanes (Category 3 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale) that developed this year number only slightly above the averages of six and two, respectively.

The 2011 season affected the Mid-Atlantic more than the Gulf of Mexico. Hurricane Irene, the first hurricane to hit the United States since Ike hit Texas in 2008, socked the East Coast. The storm caused $7 billion in damage and became the worst tropical cyclone  to strike the Northeast since Hurricane Bob in 1991. Tropical cyclone is the generic term for tropical storms and hurricanes.

Irene inundated New York and Connecticut with water — up to 15 inches (38 centimeters) in some places. Irene was blamed for 46 deaths across 13 states.

As bad as the damage was, things could have been worse. Modern storm-tracking technology allowed NOAA forecasters to accurately map Irene's path for four days before its landfall Aug. 27, near Cape Lookout, N.C., allowing the population of the Outer Banks to evacuate. Irene was a major storm for a brief period, but it weakened to a Category 1 storm and so was not a major hurricane at landfall.

"We have now gone six years — since Wilma in 2005 — without a major hurricane making U.S. landfall," said Phil Klotzbach, an atmospheric scientist and hurricane forecaster at Colorado State University.

Few Gulf storms

Since 1878, when land-falling hurricane records begin, the 2006-2011 span is the longest stretch without a major hurricane hitting the United States, Klotzbach told OurAmazingPlanet.

While the East Coast was soaked by storms, the dearth of Gulf storms added tothe Texas drought.

One storm that did hit the Gulf was Tropical Storm Lee, which made landfall in central Louisiana. Lee spawned 38 tornadoes, the second most on record for a tropical storm.

Most storms were turned away from the United States by an anomalous trough of low pressure along the East Coast, "which helped steer storms moving towards the U.S. coast back out to sea before they could make U.S. landfall," Klotzbach said.

You can follow OurAmazingPlanet staff writer Brett Israel on Twitter: @btisrael. Follow OurAmazingPlanet for the latest in Earth science and exploration news on Twitter @OAPlanet and on Facebook.

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Hurricane seasons ends, but Irene's effects remain (AP)

By KELLI KENNEDY and TONY WINTON, Associated Press Kelli Kennedy And Tony Winton, Associated Press – Wed Nov 30, 2:42 pm ET

MIAMI – Say goodbye to the 2011 Atlantic hurricane season, which was a study in contradictions: It spared the usual Southern targets while Irene paralyzed the Eastern seaboard and devastated parts of the Northeast with deadly flooding.

The season ended Wednesday as the sixth straight year without U.S. landfall of a major hurricane, yet Irene was one of the costliest storms in U.S. history and killed at least 47 people here and at least eight more in the Caribbean and Canada.

Irene was not considered a major hurricane because it did not have winds exceeding 111 mph, or Category 3, when it made landfall in North Carolina on Aug. 27.

"You would think the impacts would be somewhat light, but the damages caused by Irene will be up there in one of the top 30 or so storms," National Hurricane Center Director Bill Read said.

The season produced the third-highest number of tropical storms on record, with 19, but only a slightly higher-than-average number of hurricanes, with six.

Read said low pressure systems on the East coast and high pressure systems over the central U.S. created favorable steering currents that kept the storms mostly churning far out to sea.

Storms won't move into high pressure, clearing the way for an easy storm season for the U.S. Gulf Coast. An exception was Tropical Storm Lee, which formed off the Louisiana coast and drenched much of the eastern U.S.

"It was another very odd year," said Dr. Jeff Masters, Weather Underground's director of meteorology.

The rare combination of near-record ocean temperatures but unusually dry, stable air over the Atlantic was partially responsible for the unusually high count of named storms, Masters said.

Hurricane Ophelia was the strongest storm of the season, at one point strengthening to a Category 4 with 140 mph winds when it was just northeast of Bermuda. Ophelia hit southeastern Newfoundland, Canada, as a tropical storm, but caused little damage.

The last major hurricane to hit the U.S. was Wilma, which cut an unusually large swath of damage across Florida in 2005.

Irene caught many New England residents by surprise in late August, following a rare path as it brushed up the Eastern seaboard from North Carolina, across the Mid-Atlantic and near New York City, where meteorologists said they couldn't ever recall a direct hurricane hit.

Broadway shows were cancelled as New York officials ordered 370,000 people to leave their homes in low-lying areas and immobilized the nation's biggest subway system. Yet, the city sustained only high winds and heavy rains as a weakened Tropical Storm Irene churned up the coast.

Tropical Storm Irene was by far the most destructive event to hit Vermont in almost a century. Flooding from the storm, which dumped up to 11 inches of rain in some areas, killed six people, damaged or destroyed hundreds of miles of roads, scores of bridges, hundreds of homes and left hundreds of people homeless.

About a dozen communities were cut off by the storm for days, many without electricity or phone service and they had to be supplied by National Guard helicopters.

Three months after the storm, most of the roads and bridges have received at least temporary repairs, though two bridges remain closed. The final repair estimate for the roads could reach $250 million, which doesn't count damage to private property.

The state of Vermont's office complex in Waterbury was inundated, forcing the relocation of the offices of many of the people who worked there as well as the permanent closing of the State Hospital, forcing mental health officials to farm out patients needing the most intensive care.

More than 7,000 people asked the Federal Emergency Management Agency for assistance.

"(The severe flooding) was beyond what most people expected up there so we still have work to do on how to convey how serious the inland flooding events are from these tropical storms," Read said.

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Associated Press Writer Wilson Ring contributed to this report from Vermont.

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Online:

National Hurricane Center: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

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