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Showing posts with label Irenes. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Irenes. Show all posts

Monday, December 5, 2011

Hurricane seasons ends, but Irene's effects remain (AP)

By KELLI KENNEDY and TONY WINTON, Associated Press Kelli Kennedy And Tony Winton, Associated Press – Wed Nov 30, 2:42 pm ET

MIAMI – Say goodbye to the 2011 Atlantic hurricane season, which was a study in contradictions: It spared the usual Southern targets while Irene paralyzed the Eastern seaboard and devastated parts of the Northeast with deadly flooding.

The season ended Wednesday as the sixth straight year without U.S. landfall of a major hurricane, yet Irene was one of the costliest storms in U.S. history and killed at least 47 people here and at least eight more in the Caribbean and Canada.

Irene was not considered a major hurricane because it did not have winds exceeding 111 mph, or Category 3, when it made landfall in North Carolina on Aug. 27.

"You would think the impacts would be somewhat light, but the damages caused by Irene will be up there in one of the top 30 or so storms," National Hurricane Center Director Bill Read said.

The season produced the third-highest number of tropical storms on record, with 19, but only a slightly higher-than-average number of hurricanes, with six.

Read said low pressure systems on the East coast and high pressure systems over the central U.S. created favorable steering currents that kept the storms mostly churning far out to sea.

Storms won't move into high pressure, clearing the way for an easy storm season for the U.S. Gulf Coast. An exception was Tropical Storm Lee, which formed off the Louisiana coast and drenched much of the eastern U.S.

"It was another very odd year," said Dr. Jeff Masters, Weather Underground's director of meteorology.

The rare combination of near-record ocean temperatures but unusually dry, stable air over the Atlantic was partially responsible for the unusually high count of named storms, Masters said.

Hurricane Ophelia was the strongest storm of the season, at one point strengthening to a Category 4 with 140 mph winds when it was just northeast of Bermuda. Ophelia hit southeastern Newfoundland, Canada, as a tropical storm, but caused little damage.

The last major hurricane to hit the U.S. was Wilma, which cut an unusually large swath of damage across Florida in 2005.

Irene caught many New England residents by surprise in late August, following a rare path as it brushed up the Eastern seaboard from North Carolina, across the Mid-Atlantic and near New York City, where meteorologists said they couldn't ever recall a direct hurricane hit.

Broadway shows were cancelled as New York officials ordered 370,000 people to leave their homes in low-lying areas and immobilized the nation's biggest subway system. Yet, the city sustained only high winds and heavy rains as a weakened Tropical Storm Irene churned up the coast.

Tropical Storm Irene was by far the most destructive event to hit Vermont in almost a century. Flooding from the storm, which dumped up to 11 inches of rain in some areas, killed six people, damaged or destroyed hundreds of miles of roads, scores of bridges, hundreds of homes and left hundreds of people homeless.

About a dozen communities were cut off by the storm for days, many without electricity or phone service and they had to be supplied by National Guard helicopters.

Three months after the storm, most of the roads and bridges have received at least temporary repairs, though two bridges remain closed. The final repair estimate for the roads could reach $250 million, which doesn't count damage to private property.

The state of Vermont's office complex in Waterbury was inundated, forcing the relocation of the offices of many of the people who worked there as well as the permanent closing of the State Hospital, forcing mental health officials to farm out patients needing the most intensive care.

More than 7,000 people asked the Federal Emergency Management Agency for assistance.

"(The severe flooding) was beyond what most people expected up there so we still have work to do on how to convey how serious the inland flooding events are from these tropical storms," Read said.

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Associated Press Writer Wilson Ring contributed to this report from Vermont.

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Online:

National Hurricane Center: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/


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Monday, August 29, 2011

Unusually quiet New York waits for Irene's worst (AP)

By SAMANTHA GROSS and MITCH WEISS, Associated Press Samantha Gross And Mitch Weiss, Associated Press – 6 mins ago

NEW YORK – The National Hurricane Center in Miami says that Irene has lost hurricane strength and made landfall on New York's Coney Island.

Forecasters say Irene's winds have fallen to 65 mph.

They say Irene should move over New England by the afternoon. Officials also warn that isolated tornadoes are possible in the northeast throughout the morning.


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Sunday, August 28, 2011

Hurricane Irene's Path: How Do Forecasters Predict the 'Cone of Uncertainty'? (Time.com)

You've seen Hurricane Irene's path predicted on maps: lime green states, electric blue water and a white upside-down teardrop running smack into North Carolina. But hurricanes are fickle and go where they will, so how do weather forecasters nail them down?

Actually, they don't, which is part of the problem when you're wrestling mathematically with a monster cyclone hundreds of miles in size. All forecasters can do is estimate with increasing uncertainty as they project forward through time where a hurricane might go. That's what the white teardrop - sometimes called a "Cone of Uncertainty" - is all about in these National Hurricane Center maps. Don't mistake it for something like Irene's "area of effect," it's actually a zone representing the range of possible paths along which Hurricane Irene's eye (the relatively calm, cloudless point at a hurricane's center) could move. Think of it as a visual representation of forecasters' margin of error.

(PHOTOS: U.S. East Coast Battens Down as Hurricane Irene Approaches)

How do forecasters determine the "Cone of Uncertainty"? According to CNN meteorologist Dave Hennen, they run simulations on "some of the fastest computers in the world," which in turn crunch data assembled from radar, satellite and weather balloon scans, reports from ships in the vicinity of the hurricane, airplanes (hot-rod hunters that actually fly into the center of the storm) and weather stations.

"Literally billions of calculations are done with very complex equations to help model the atmosphere into the future," Hennen says. "More than 20 different kinds of models are run - some being more reliable and complex than others - to help forecast the track and intensity of the storm."

Forecast tracks are issued every six hours and take into account the latest data, resulting in the multicolored "spaghetti" lines you sometimes see on TV, detailing the hurricane's possible paths, which in turn help to generate the "Cone of Uncertainty." According to Hennen, Irene's center location 12 hours out is averaging 36 miles in either direction, while at 48 hours out, you're looking at a whopping 100 miles either way.

"This is why meteorologists and emergency managers will constantly preach not to look at the line on the forecast track, but to look at the 'cone'," Hennen says. "If you are inside that area, you could end up in the direct path of the storm."

The site to watch: The National Hurricane Center, specifically the "Coastal Watches/Warnings and 5-Day Forecast Cone for Storm Center" view (or if you want the interactive Google Maps version, the "Coastal Watches/Warnings and 5-Day Track Forecast Cone").

MORE: Worried about Irene's Visit? 8 Hurricane Tracking Apps to Keep Tabs on the Storm

Matt Peckham is a reporter at TIME. Find him on Twitter at @mattpeckham or on Facebook. You can also continue the discussion on TIME's Facebook page and on Twitter at @TIME.

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