Federal forecasters say warmer-than-normal sea surface temperatures point to an above-average number of hurricanes -- as many as eight -- in the Atlantic Basin this season, including three "major" hurricanes, despite the arrival of of El Niño this month or in September.
Meteorologists from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) expect 12 to 17 named storms for the full season, running from June 1 to Nov. 30, including five to eight hurricanes.
NOAA predicts two or three "major" hurricanes with winds of at least 111 mph.
Six named storms have already formed this year, including Hurricanes Chris and Ernesto. Tropical Storm Debby did the most damage in the U.S., killing seven people and drenching northern Florida.
"We are increasing the likelihood of an above-normal season because storm-conducive wind patterns and warmer-than-normal sea surface temperatures are now in place in the Atlantic," says Gerry Bell, a hurricane forecaster at the Climate Prediction Center. "These conditions are linked to the ongoing high activity era for Atlantic hurricanes that began in 1995. Also, strong early season activity is generally indicative of a more active season."
However, NOAA forecasters also say that El Niño, which is a warming of tropical Pacific Ocean water that affects weather around the world, will likely develop this month or in September.
Bell says El Niño is "a competing factor" because it strengthens the vertical wind shear over the Atlantic, which suppresses storm development, but is not likely to weigh in until later in the season.
Earlier this month, another updated forecast -- from experts at Colorado State University -- predicted 14 named storms, including six hurricanes, of which two would be classified as "major."
A typical year brings 12 named storms, including six hurricanes.
