Hurricane sandy increased incidents of heart attacks, stroke in hardest hit New Jersey counties

Heart attacks and strokes are more likely to occur during extreme weather and natural disasters such as earthquakes and floods. Researchers at the Cardiovascular Institute of New Jersey at Rutgers Robert Wood Johnson Medical School have found evidence that Hurricane Sandy, commonly referred to as a superstorm, had a significant effect on cardiovascular events, including myocardial infarction (heart attack) and stroke, in the high-impact areas of New Jersey two weeks following the 2012 storm. The study, led by Joel N. Swerdel, MS, MPH, an epidemiologist at the Cardiovascular Institute and the Rutgers School of Public Health, was published in the Journal of the American Heart Association.

Utilizing the Myocardial Infarction Data Acquisition System (MIDAS), the researchers examined changes in the incidence of and mortality from myocardial infarctions and strokes from 2007 to 2012 for two weeks prior to and two weeks after October 29, the date of Hurricane Sandy. MIDAS is an administrative database containing hospital records of all patients discharged from non-federal hospitals in New Jersey with a cardiovascular disease diagnosis or invasive cardiovascular procedure.

In the two weeks following Hurricane Sandy, the researchers found that in the eight counties determined to be high-impact areas, there was a 22 percent increase in heart attacks as compared with the same time period in the previous five years. In the low impact areas (the remaining 13 counties), the increase was less than one percent. 30-day mortality from heart attacks also increased by 31 percent in the high-impact area.

"We estimate that there were 69 more deaths from myocardial infarction during the two weeks following Sandy than would have been expected. This is a significant increase over typical non-emergency periods," said Swerdel. "Our hope is that the research may be used by the medical community, particularly emergency medical services, to prepare for the change in volume and severity of health incidents during extreme weather events."

In regard to stroke, the investigators found an increase of 7 percent compared to the same time period in the prior five years in areas of the state impacted the most. There was no change in the incidence of stroke in low-impact areas. There also was no change in the rate of 30-day mortality due to stroke in either the high- or low-impact areas.

"Hurricane Sandy had unprecedented environmental, financial and health consequences on New Jersey and its residents, all factors that can increase the risk of cardiovascular events," said John B. Kostis, MD, director of the Cardiovascular Institute of New Jersey and associate dean for cardiovascular research at Rutgers Robert Wood Johnson Medical School. "Increased stress and physical activity, dehydration and a decreased attention or ability to manage one's own medical needs probably caused cardiovascular events during natural disasters or extreme weather. Also, the disruption of communication services, power outages, gas shortages, and road closures, also were contributing factors to efficiently obtaining medical care."

Journal Reference:

J. N. Swerdel, T. M. Janevic, N. M. Cosgrove, J. B. Kostis. The Effect of Hurricane Sandy on Cardiovascular Events in New Jersey. Journal of the American Heart Association, 2014; 3 (6): e001354 DOI: 10.1161/JAHA.114.001354

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Hurricane conjecture: Real-time forecast of Hurricane Sandy had track and intensity precision

A genuine-time hurricane analysis and conjecture system that effectively includes airborne Doppler radar information may precisely track the road, intensity and wind pressure inside a hurricane, based on Penn Condition meteorologists. This technique may also find out the causes of forecast uncertainty.

"With this particular study aircraft-based Doppler radar information was consumed in to the system," stated Fuqing Zhang, professor of meteorology, Penn Condition. "Our forecasts were similar to or much better than individuals produced by operational global models."

Zhang and Erin B. Munsell, graduate student in meteorology, used The Pennsylvania Condition College real-time convection-enabling hurricane analysis and predicting system (WRF-EnKF) to evaluate Hurricane Sandy. While Sandy made landfall around the Nj coast around the evening of March. 29, 2012, case study and forecast system started monitoring on March. 21 and also the Doppler radar data examined covers March. 26 through 28.

The scientists in comparison The WRF-EnKF forecasts towards the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Global Forecast System (GFS) and also the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Predictions (ECMWF). Besides the opportunity to effectively assimilate real-time Doppler radar information, the WRF-EnKF model includes high-resolution cloud-enabling grids, which permit the presence of individual clouds within the model.

"Our model predicted storm pathways with 100 km -- 50 mile -- precision four or five days in front of landfall for Hurricane Sandy," stated Zhang. "We had accurate forecasts of Sandy's intensity."

The WRF-EnKF model also runs 60 storm forecasts concurrently being an ensemble, each with slightly varying initial conditions. This program operates on NOAA's devoted computer, and also the analysis ended around the Texas Advanced Computing Center computer due to the enormity of information collected.

To evaluate the Hurricane Sandy forecast data, the scientists divided the 60 incurs groups -- good, fair and poor. This method could isolate questions within the model initial conditions, that are at their peak on March. 26, when 10 from the forecasts recommended that Sandy wouldn't make landfall whatsoever. By searching only at that area of the model, Zhang indicates the errors occur due to variations within the initial steering level winds within the tropics that Sandy was baked into, rather than a mid-latitude trough -- a place of relatively low atmospheric pressure -- in front of Sandy's path.

"Although the mid-latitude system doesn't strongly influence the ultimate position of Sandy, variations within the timing and placement of their interactions with Sandy result in considerable variations in rain fall predictions, especially regarding heavy precipitation over land," the scientists report inside a recent problem from the Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems.

By 2 days before landfall, the WRF-EnKF model was precisely predicting the hurricane's path with landfall in southern Nj, as the GFS model predicted a far more northern landfall in New You are able to and Connecticut, and also the ECMWF model forecast landfall in northern Nj.

Hurricane Sandy is a great storm to evaluate because its path was unusual among Atlantic tropical storms, that do not usually turn northwest in to the mid-Atlantic or Colonial. While the 3 models did a reasonably good job at predicting facets of this hurricane, the WRF-EnKF model was very promising in predicting path, intensity and rain fall.

NOAA is presently evaluating using the WRF-EnKF system in storm conjecture, along with other scientists are utilizing it to calculate storm surge and risk analysis.

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Federal agencies remapping coastal areas damaged by Hurricane Sandy

August 20, 2013

In a Sandy-response project earlier this spring, a NOAA navigation response team — equipped with high-tech surveying equipment — searched for underwater storm debris and mapped the depths surrounding Liberty Island and Ellis Island.

High resolution (Credit: NOAA)

A day after the administration released the Hurricane Sandy Rebuilding Task Force progress report, three federal agencies have announced plans for remapping parts of the East Coast, where Hurricane Sandy altered seafloors and shorelines, destroyed buildings, and disrupted millions of lives last year.

NOAA, the U.S. Geological Survey, and the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers are using emergency supplemental funds provided by Congress to survey coastal waters and shorelines, acquiring data that will update East Coast land maps and nautical charts.

Using ships, aircraft, and satellites, the agencies will measure water depths, look for submerged debris, and record altered shorelines in high priority areas from South Carolina to Maine, as stipulated by Congress in the Disaster Relief Appropriations Act of 2013. The areas to be remapped will be based on their relative dangers to navigation, effects from the storm, and discussions with state and local officials as well as the maritime industry.

In Sandy's immediate aftermath, NOAA survey vessels responded to calls for assistance from storm-ravaged areas in New York, New Jersey, Delaware Bay, and Virginia. This navigation response team cleared a path to launch at Marcus Hook.

High resolution (Credit: NOAA)

“Our approach is to map once, then use the data for many purposes,” said NOAA Rear Admiral Gerd Glang, director of NOAA’s Office of Coast Survey. “Under the Ocean and Coastal Mapping Integration Act, NOAA and its federal partners are taking a 'whole ocean' approach to get as much useful information as possible from every dollar invested to help states build more resilient coastlines.”

The data, much of which will be stored at NOAA’s National Geophysical Data Center, and through NOAA’s Digital Coast, will be open to local, state, and federal agencies as well as academia and the general public. The information can be applied to updating nautical charts, removing marine debris, replenishing beaches, making repairs, and planning for future storms and coastal resilience.

As the sun rose over New York on Nov. 1, NOAA Corps Ensign Lindsey Norman retrieved the side scan sonar that NOAA Ship Thomas Jefferson used to survey the Hudson River, allowing fuel barge traffic to resume.

High resolution (Credit: NOAA)

The three federal agencies are collaborating for greater topographic and hydrographic coverage and to promote efficiency. Earlier this year, a NOAA navigation response team surveyed the waters around Liberty Island and Ellis Island in New York harbor, measuring water depths and searching for debris that could cause a danger to navigation. Also, NOAA Ship Thomas Jefferson began surveying the approaches to the Delaware Bay in June.

NOAA plans to contract with commercial firms for additional hydrographic survey projects and high resolution topographic and bathymetric elevation data and imagery in the region.

The U.S. Geological Survey will collect very high-resolution elevation data to support scientific studies related to the hurricane recovery and rebuilding activities, watershed planning and resource management. USGS will collect data in coastal and inland areas depending on their hurricane damages and the age and quality of existing data. The elevation data will become part of a new initiative, called the 3D Elevation Program, to systematically acquire improved, high-resolution elevation data across the United States.

Within hours of Sandy's departure, NOAA deployed research vessel Bay Hydro II to survey ship channels in the Hampton Roads area of Virginia, speeding the resumption of shipping and naval operations.

High resolution (Credit: NOAA)

“The human deaths and the powerful landscape-altering destruction caused by Hurricane Sandy are a stark reminder that our nation must become more resilient to coastal hazards,” said Kevin Gallagher, associate director for Core Science Systems at USGS. "Sandy's most fundamental lesson is that storm vulnerability is a direct consequence of the elevation of coastal communities in relation to storm waves. Communities will benefit greatly from the higher resolution and accuracy of new elevation information to better prepare for storm impacts, develop response strategies, and design resilient and cost-efficient post-storm redevelopment."

The Army Corps of Engineers and its Joint Airborne Lidar Bathymetry Technical Center of Expertise are covering particular project areas in Massachusetts, Virginia, and New Jersey. They will coordinate operations, research, and development in airborne lidar bathymetry and complementary technologies for USACE, NOAA, and the U.S. Navy.

Preliminary U.S. damage estimates are near $50 billion, making Sandy the second-costliest cyclone to hit the United States since 1900. There were at least 147 direct deaths recorded across the Atlantic basin due to Sandy, with 72 of these fatalities occurring in the mid-Atlantic and northeastern United States. This is the greatest number of U.S. direct fatalities related to a tropical cyclone outside of the southern states since Hurricane Agnes in 1972.

NOAA’s mission is to understand and predict changes in the Earth's environment, from the depths of the ocean to the surface of the sun, and to conserve and manage our coastal and marine resources. Join us on Facebook, Twitter and our other social media channels.

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Final report on Sandy service assessment released

May 15, 2013

This image was taken on October 29, 2012 from NOAA/NASA’s Suomi NPP polar-orbiting satellite. Using its Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite, or VIIRS, the satellite provides forecasters more information about the storm’s cloud structure.

Download here (Credit: NOAA/NASA)

After a thoughtful and deliberate review, today NOAA released a report on the National Weather Service’s performance during hurricane/post tropical cyclone Sandy. The report, Hurricane/Post Tropical Cyclone Sandy Service Assessment, reaffirms that the National Weather Service provided accurate forecasts for Sandy, giving people early awareness of the significant storm churning toward the mid-Atlantic and Northeast. The report includes recommendations to improve products and services to fully meet customer and partner needs in the future.

“We found that core partners highly value the National Weather Service and thought the forecasts for Sandy were quite good – forecasters performed well predicting the track of this extremely large and complex storm, which undoubtedly saved lives,” said Peyton Robertson, director of NOAA’s Chesapeake Bay Office and team leader for the Sandy Assessment. “But we also found problems with NOAA’s ability to communicate the impacts associated with storm surge, one of the most significant hazards associated with Sandy.”

The report includes 23 recommendations for service improvements, identifying better storm surge forecasts as the highest priority. Although surge forecasts for Sandy were available two days before the storm, the team found that officials in New York and New Jersey needed information sooner and in more user-friendly, unified formats, including GIS maps and warnings that provide specific local impacts. Among others, the report recommends that NOAA unify public communications of forecast information and expand the use of social science to develop products, services and communication tools to drive public preparedness and response to severe weather.

This NOAA GOES-13 satellite image taken on October 29, 2012, shows the storm as it is centered off of Maryland and Virginia. The storm is heading in a northwestern direction towards the Delaware and southern New Jersey coast. 

Download here (Credit: NOAA/NASA)

The National Weather Service has already implemented one of the team’s recommendations and is developing an action plan to ensure that the team’s remaining recommendations become reality. Earlier this year, the National Hurricane Center moved to change its policy to issue forecasts and warnings for dangerous storms like Sandy, even when they are expected to become post-tropical cyclones by landfall. This policy will be in place for the June 1 start of hurricane season.

“I’m committed to implementing these recommendations to give America a National Weather Service that is second to none,” said Dr. Louis Uccellini, director of NOAA’s National Weather Service. “We will achieve better storm surge forecasts, and more accurate and reliable weather forecasts across the board, with increased high performance computing capacity that is planned within the next few years to support improved numerical weather prediction models.”

He explained that the agency’s structure and operations were last modernized two decades ago, and much of the agency’s communications capacity was designed in the 1980s.

This spring Congress passed the Sandy Supplemental Appropriations Act, providing NOAA with unprecedented opportunity to strengthen the National Weather Service. The Act provides $48 million in supplemental funding to the agency’s FY13 budget for Sandy recovery efforts and to improve response and recovery capability for future weather events. The funding will allow the National Weather Service to make critical improvements in high-speed computing, higher resolution weather prediction models and key observation systems, among other projects that will improve the agency’s support to local communities for extreme weather events.

Sandy was a complex storm, resulting in 72 direct deaths across eight states and at least 75 indirect deaths, damages in excess of $50 billion, storm surge in excess of eight feet and up to three feet of snow in some places. At close to 1,000 miles in diameter, it was among the largest storms ever to strike the United States. The storm caused impacts in 24 states.

NOAA formed a team to assess the National Weather Service’s performance before and during the storm, as it does for destructive or deadly weather events. Team members were selected from across NOAA and other government agencies. The team’s charter called for the review of three key areas: the issuance and communication of watches and warnings during Sandy; National Weather Service’s use of the Internet to communicate with the customers and partners; and the development and communication of storm surge forecasts and information across NOAA.

The National Weather Service is the primary source of weather data, forecasts and warnings for the United States and its territories. Working with partners, NOAA’s National Weather Service is building a Weather-Ready Nation to support community resilience in the face of increasing vulnerability to extreme weather. Visit us online at weather.gov and join us on Facebook, Twitter and our other social media channels.

NOAA’s mission is to understand and predict changes in the Earth's environment, from the depths of the ocean to the surface of the sun, and to conserve and manage our coastal and marine resources. Join us on Facebook, Twitter and our other social media channels.

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Sandy retired from list of Atlantic Basin tropical cyclone names

April 11, 2013

This NOAA GOES-13 satellite image taken on October 29, 2012 shows the storm as it is centered off of Maryland and Virginia. 

Download here. (Credit: NOAA.)

Sandy has been retired from the official list of Atlantic Basin tropical cyclone names by the World Meteorological Organization’s hurricane committee because of the extreme impacts it caused from Jamaica and Cuba to the Mid-Atlantic United States in October 2012.
Storm names are reused every six years for both the Atlantic and eastern North Pacific basins. If a storm is so deadly or costly that the future use of the name would be insensitive or confusing, the WMO hurricane committee, which includes personnel from NOAA’s National Hurricane Center, may retire the name. Sandy is the 77th name to be retired from the Atlantic list since 1954. The name will be replaced with “Sara” beginning in 2018.
Sandy was a classic late-season hurricane in the southwestern Caribbean Sea. The cyclone made landfall as a category 1 hurricane (on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale) in Jamaica, and as a 115 mph category 3 hurricane in eastern Cuba.  Hurricane Sandy merged with a frontal system hours before making landfall as a post-tropical cyclone near Brigantine, N.J., and its size and strength caused catastrophic damage all along the mid-Atlantic shoreline.

Because of its tremendous size, Sandy drove a catastrophic storm surge into the New Jersey and New York coastlines. Preliminary U.S. damage estimates are near $50 billion, making Sandy the second-costliest cyclone since Katrina to hit the United States. There were at least 147 direct deaths recorded across the Atlantic basin due to Sandy, with 72 of these fatalities occurring in the mid-Atlantic and northeastern United States. Sandy caused the greatest number of U.S. direct fatalities related to a tropical cyclone outside of the southern states since Hurricane Agnes in 1972.

NOAA's National Weather Service is the primary source of weather data, forecasts and warnings for the United States and its territories. NOAA’s National Weather Service operates the most advanced weather and flood warning and forecast system in the world, helping to protect lives and property and enhance the national economy. Working with partners, NOAA’s National Weather Service is building a Weather-Ready Nation to support community resilience in the face of increasing vulnerability to extreme weather. Visit us online at weather.gov and on Facebook.

NOAA’s mission is to understand and predict changes in the Earth's environment, from the depths of the ocean to the surface of the sun, and to conserve and manage our coastal and marine resources. Join us on Facebook, Twitter and our other social media channels.

View the original article here

Federal agencies remapping coastal areas damaged by Hurricane Sandy

August 20, 2013

In a Sandy-response project earlier this spring, a NOAA navigation response team — equipped with high-tech surveying equipment — searched for underwater storm debris and mapped the depths surrounding Liberty Island and Ellis Island.

High resolution (Credit: NOAA)

A day after the administration released the Hurricane Sandy Rebuilding Task Force progress report, three federal agencies have announced plans for remapping parts of the East Coast, where Hurricane Sandy altered seafloors and shorelines, destroyed buildings, and disrupted millions of lives last year.

NOAA, the U.S. Geological Survey, and the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers are using emergency supplemental funds provided by Congress to survey coastal waters and shorelines, acquiring data that will update East Coast land maps and nautical charts.

Using ships, aircraft, and satellites, the agencies will measure water depths, look for submerged debris, and record altered shorelines in high priority areas from South Carolina to Maine, as stipulated by Congress in the Disaster Relief Appropriations Act of 2013. The areas to be remapped will be based on their relative dangers to navigation, effects from the storm, and discussions with state and local officials as well as the maritime industry.

In Sandy's immediate aftermath, NOAA survey vessels responded to calls for assistance from storm-ravaged areas in New York, New Jersey, Delaware Bay, and Virginia. This navigation response team cleared a path to launch at Marcus Hook.

High resolution (Credit: NOAA)

“Our approach is to map once, then use the data for many purposes,” said NOAA Rear Admiral Gerd Glang, director of NOAA’s Office of Coast Survey. “Under the Ocean and Coastal Mapping Integration Act, NOAA and its federal partners are taking a 'whole ocean' approach to get as much useful information as possible from every dollar invested to help states build more resilient coastlines.”

The data, much of which will be stored at NOAA’s National Geophysical Data Center, and through NOAA’s Digital Coast, will be open to local, state, and federal agencies as well as academia and the general public. The information can be applied to updating nautical charts, removing marine debris, replenishing beaches, making repairs, and planning for future storms and coastal resilience.

As the sun rose over New York on Nov. 1, NOAA Corps Ensign Lindsey Norman retrieved the side scan sonar that NOAA Ship Thomas Jefferson used to survey the Hudson River, allowing fuel barge traffic to resume.

High resolution (Credit: NOAA)

The three federal agencies are collaborating for greater topographic and hydrographic coverage and to promote efficiency. Earlier this year, a NOAA navigation response team surveyed the waters around Liberty Island and Ellis Island in New York harbor, measuring water depths and searching for debris that could cause a danger to navigation. Also, NOAA Ship Thomas Jefferson began surveying the approaches to the Delaware Bay in June.

NOAA plans to contract with commercial firms for additional hydrographic survey projects and high resolution topographic and bathymetric elevation data and imagery in the region.

The U.S. Geological Survey will collect very high-resolution elevation data to support scientific studies related to the hurricane recovery and rebuilding activities, watershed planning and resource management. USGS will collect data in coastal and inland areas depending on their hurricane damages and the age and quality of existing data. The elevation data will become part of a new initiative, called the 3D Elevation Program, to systematically acquire improved, high-resolution elevation data across the United States.

Within hours of Sandy's departure, NOAA deployed research vessel Bay Hydro II to survey ship channels in the Hampton Roads area of Virginia, speeding the resumption of shipping and naval operations.

High resolution (Credit: NOAA)

“The human deaths and the powerful landscape-altering destruction caused by Hurricane Sandy are a stark reminder that our nation must become more resilient to coastal hazards,” said Kevin Gallagher, associate director for Core Science Systems at USGS. "Sandy's most fundamental lesson is that storm vulnerability is a direct consequence of the elevation of coastal communities in relation to storm waves. Communities will benefit greatly from the higher resolution and accuracy of new elevation information to better prepare for storm impacts, develop response strategies, and design resilient and cost-efficient post-storm redevelopment."

The Army Corps of Engineers and its Joint Airborne Lidar Bathymetry Technical Center of Expertise are covering particular project areas in Massachusetts, Virginia, and New Jersey. They will coordinate operations, research, and development in airborne lidar bathymetry and complementary technologies for USACE, NOAA, and the U.S. Navy.

Preliminary U.S. damage estimates are near $50 billion, making Sandy the second-costliest cyclone to hit the United States since 1900. There were at least 147 direct deaths recorded across the Atlantic basin due to Sandy, with 72 of these fatalities occurring in the mid-Atlantic and northeastern United States. This is the greatest number of U.S. direct fatalities related to a tropical cyclone outside of the southern states since Hurricane Agnes in 1972.

NOAA’s mission is to understand and predict changes in the Earth's environment, from the depths of the ocean to the surface of the sun, and to conserve and manage our coastal and marine resources. Join us on Facebook, Twitter and our other social media channels.

View the original article here