Hurricane conjecture: Real-time forecast of Hurricane Sandy had track and intensity precision

A genuine-time hurricane analysis and conjecture system that effectively includes airborne Doppler radar information may precisely track the road, intensity and wind pressure inside a hurricane, based on Penn Condition meteorologists. This technique may also find out the causes of forecast uncertainty.

"With this particular study aircraft-based Doppler radar information was consumed in to the system," stated Fuqing Zhang, professor of meteorology, Penn Condition. "Our forecasts were similar to or much better than individuals produced by operational global models."

Zhang and Erin B. Munsell, graduate student in meteorology, used The Pennsylvania Condition College real-time convection-enabling hurricane analysis and predicting system (WRF-EnKF) to evaluate Hurricane Sandy. While Sandy made landfall around the Nj coast around the evening of March. 29, 2012, case study and forecast system started monitoring on March. 21 and also the Doppler radar data examined covers March. 26 through 28.

The scientists in comparison The WRF-EnKF forecasts towards the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Global Forecast System (GFS) and also the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Predictions (ECMWF). Besides the opportunity to effectively assimilate real-time Doppler radar information, the WRF-EnKF model includes high-resolution cloud-enabling grids, which permit the presence of individual clouds within the model.

"Our model predicted storm pathways with 100 km -- 50 mile -- precision four or five days in front of landfall for Hurricane Sandy," stated Zhang. "We had accurate forecasts of Sandy's intensity."

The WRF-EnKF model also runs 60 storm forecasts concurrently being an ensemble, each with slightly varying initial conditions. This program operates on NOAA's devoted computer, and also the analysis ended around the Texas Advanced Computing Center computer due to the enormity of information collected.

To evaluate the Hurricane Sandy forecast data, the scientists divided the 60 incurs groups -- good, fair and poor. This method could isolate questions within the model initial conditions, that are at their peak on March. 26, when 10 from the forecasts recommended that Sandy wouldn't make landfall whatsoever. By searching only at that area of the model, Zhang indicates the errors occur due to variations within the initial steering level winds within the tropics that Sandy was baked into, rather than a mid-latitude trough -- a place of relatively low atmospheric pressure -- in front of Sandy's path.

"Although the mid-latitude system doesn't strongly influence the ultimate position of Sandy, variations within the timing and placement of their interactions with Sandy result in considerable variations in rain fall predictions, especially regarding heavy precipitation over land," the scientists report inside a recent problem from the Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems.

By 2 days before landfall, the WRF-EnKF model was precisely predicting the hurricane's path with landfall in southern Nj, as the GFS model predicted a far more northern landfall in New You are able to and Connecticut, and also the ECMWF model forecast landfall in northern Nj.

Hurricane Sandy is a great storm to evaluate because its path was unusual among Atlantic tropical storms, that do not usually turn northwest in to the mid-Atlantic or Colonial. While the 3 models did a reasonably good job at predicting facets of this hurricane, the WRF-EnKF model was very promising in predicting path, intensity and rain fall.

NOAA is presently evaluating using the WRF-EnKF system in storm conjecture, along with other scientists are utilizing it to calculate storm surge and risk analysis.

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New current meter at Stevens will feed data into NOAA’s real-time information system to allow ships to navigate more safely in New York harbor

April 29, 2013

NOAA is using data from a new current meter in New York harbor, operated by one of its academic partners, New Jersey’s Stevens Institute of Technology, to provide enhanced real-time information to mariners travelling through the nation’s second busiest port.

The Stevens current meter measures the  direction, speed, and volume of ocean currents in the harbor’s navigation channels, north of the Narrows between Brooklyn and Staten Island.  Its data will be used in NOAA’s Physical Oceanographic Real-Time System (PORTS®) system, which delivers real-time environmental observations, forecasts and other geospatial information to mariners in 21 major U.S. harbors. The system makes maritime commerce more safe and efficient by giving ship captains instant measurements of the water levels and temperatures, and the direction and speed of the current and wind as they come in and out of port.

Stevens is a partner in the NOAA-led U.S. Integrated Ocean Observing System (IOOS®) , and is the first academic institution that is part of IOOS to have its research data incorporated into the NOAA real-time PORTS program.

"This new sensor will provide crucial current information halfway between the Verrazano Narrows Bridge and Manhattan, the primary navigation route into New York and New Jersey ports. It’s a great addition to PORTS,” said Richard Edwing, director of NOAA’s Center for Operational Oceanographic Products and Services. “This collaboration between Stevens and NOAA gives us access to previously untapped data to help us address marine commerce and other coastal issues.  It also lays the groundwork for future federal-regional collaborations.”

By providing real-time tide, current, and other information, NOAA’s PORTS program helps reduce the chances for accidents. Also, enhanced marine information can increase the amount of cargo moved through a port and harbor by enabling mariners to safely use every inch of dredged channel depth.

“This is how the national IOOS network – with federal, regional, academic, and private sector partnerships – is bringing more data and information to the table from more sources than the government has had access to before,” said Zdenka Willis, U.S. IOOS program director. “In these tough economic times, IOOS is really helping us do more for our nation at lower cost.”

IOOS brings together timely, reliable, and accurate data and information decision makers need to take action to improve safety, enhance the economy and protect the environment. These data provide a larger picture of the interaction between the ocean and global climate systems and advance our understanding of potential climate change impacts on our marine ecosystems and coastal communities.

NOAA’s mission is to understand and predict changes in the Earth's environment, from the depths of the ocean to the surface of the sun, and to conserve and manage our coastal and marine resources. Join us on Facebook, Twitter and our other social media channels.

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