Natural variation: Warm North Atlantic Sea encourages extreme winters in U.S. and Europe

The ultimate cold temperature observed across Europe and also the new england of america in recent winters might be partially lower to natural, lengthy-term versions in ocean surface temps, according to a different study released today.

Scientists in the College of California Irvine have proven that the phenomenon referred to as Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) -- an all natural pattern of variation in North Atlantic ocean surface temps that switches between an optimistic and negative phase every 60-70 years -- can impact an atmospheric circulation pattern, referred to as North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), that influences the temperature and precipitation within the Northern Hemisphere in the winter months.

Once the AMO is within its positive phase and also the ocean surface temps are warmer, the research has proven the primary effect in the winter months would be to promote the negative phase from the NAO which results in "obstructing" episodes within the North Atlantic sector, permitting cold temperature systems to exist within the eastern US and Europe.

The outcomes happen to be released today, Wednesday 2 April, in IOP Publishing's journal Environment Research Letters.

To reach their results, the scientists combined findings in the past century with climate simulations from the atmospheric reaction to the AMO.

Based on their findings, ocean surface temps within the Atlantic can depend on 1.5 ?C warmer within the Gulf Stream region throughout the positive phase from the AMO in comparison towards the negative, cooler phase. The weather simulations claim that these anomalies in ocean surface temps can enjoy a predominant role in marketing the modification within the NAO.

Lead authors from the study Yannick Peings and Gudrun Magnusdottir stated: "Our results indicate the primary aftereffect of the positive AMO in the winter months would be to promote the appearance of the negative phase from the NAO. An adverse NAO in the winter months usually goes hands-in-hands with cold temperature within the eastern US and north-the european union.Inch

The findings also suggest that it requires around 10-fifteen years prior to the positive phase of AMO has any important effect around the NAO. The reason behind this lag is unknown however, a reason may be that AMO phases make time to develop fully.

Because the AMO has been around an optimistic phase because the early the nineteen nineties, it might have led towards the extreme winters that both US and Europe have observed recently.

The scientists warn, however, the future evolution from the AMO remains uncertain, with lots of factors potentially affecting the way it interacts with atmospheric circulation designs, for example Arctic ocean ice loss, alterations in photo voltaic radiation, volcanic eruptions and levels of green house gases within the atmosphere.

The AMO also shows strong variability in one year to another additionally towards the changes seen every 60 - 70 years, which causes it to be hard to attribute specific extreme winters towards the AMO's effects.

Reacting towards the extreme weather that held the eastern coast of america this winter, Yannick Peings ongoing: "Unlike the 2012/2013 winter, this winter had rather low values from the AMO index and also the pattern of ocean surface temperature anomalies wasn't in conjuction with the typical positive AMO pattern. Furthermore, the NAO was mostly positive having a relatively mild winter over Europe."

"It is therefore unlikely the positive AMO performed a determining role around the new england of america, although further jobs are essential to answer this. This kind of event is in conjuction with the large internal variability from the atmosphere, along with other exterior forcings might have performed a job.

"Our future studies will turn to compare the function from the AMO in comparison to Arctic ocean ice anomalies, which are also proven to affect atmospheric circulation designs and promote cooler, more extreme winters."

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With few hard frosts, tropical mangroves push north

Cold-sensitive mangrove forests have expanded dramatically along Florida's Atlantic Coast as the frequency of killing frosts has declined, according to a new study based on 28 years of satellite data from the University of Maryland and the Smithsonian Environmental Research Center in Edgewater, Md.

Between 1984 and 2011, the Florida Atlantic coast from the Miami area northward gained more than 3,000 acres (1,240 hectares) of mangroves. All the increase occurred north of Palm Beach County. Between Cape Canaveral National Seashore and Saint Augustine, mangroves doubled in area. Meanwhile between the study's first five years and its last five years, nearby Daytona Beach recorded 1.4 fewer days per year when temperatures fell below 28.4 degrees Fahrenheit (-4 degrees Celsius). The number of killing frosts in southern Florida was unchanged.

The mangroves' march up the coast as far north as St. Augustine, Fla., is a striking example of one way climate change's impacts show up in nature. Rising temperatures lead to new patterns of extreme weather, which in turn cause major changes in plant communities, say the study's authors.

Unlike many studies which focus on changes in average temperatures, this study, published online Dec. 30 in the peer-reviewed journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, shows that changes in the frequency of rare, severe events can determine whether landscapes hold their ground or are transformed by climate change.

The mangrove forests are edging out salt marshes, said University of Maryland Entomology Professor Daniel S. Gruner, a study co-author. "This is what we would expect to see happening with climate change, one ecosystem replacing another," said Gruner, who co-leads an interdisciplinary research project on mangrove ecosystems, along with Ilka C. Feller of the Smithsonian. "But at this point we don't have enough information to predict what the long term consequences will be."

One valuable ecosystem replaces another -- at what cost?

"Some people may say this is a good thing, because of the tremendous threats that mangroves face," said the study's lead author, Kyle Cavanaugh, a Smithsonian postdoctoral research fellow. "But this is not taking place in a vacuum. The mangroves are replacing salt marshes, which have important ecosystem functions and food webs of their own."

Mangrove forests grow in calm, shallow coastal waters throughout the tropics. Salt marshes fill that niche in temperate zones. Both provide crucial habitat for wildlife, including endangered species and commercially valuable fish and shellfish. Some animals use both types of habitat. Others, like marsh-nesting seaside sparrows or the honey bees that produce mangrove honey, rely on one or the other.

Both provide valuable ecosystem services, buffering floods, storing atmospheric carbon and building soils. Both are in decline nationally and globally. Mangrove forests are cut down for charcoal production, aquaculture and urbanization or lose habitat to drainage projects. Salt marshes are threatened by drainage, polluted runoff and rising sea levels.

Florida naturalists noticed that mangroves now grow in places that once were too chilly for the tropical trees. "We knew this was happening, but no one knew if it was a local or a regional phenomenon," Cavanaugh said.

Study used satellite photos, the "gold standard" in climate change

Cavanaugh, an expert in remote sensing, turned to photographs of Florida's Atlantic coast taken by NASA's Landsat 5, which launched in 1984 and tracked changes in Earth's land cover until 2011. "It very quickly became a gold standard to examine the effects of climate change, because it lets you look back in time," Cavanaugh said.

The satellite images revealed the mangroves' expansion into terrain formerly inhabited by salt marsh plants. While the study only looked at the Atlantic Coast, the same trend is taking place on Florida's Gulf Coast, Cavanaugh and Gruner said.

Mean winter temperatures have risen at seven of eight coastal weather stations in the study area. But if overall warming benefited mangroves, the mangrove cover should have increased all over Florida, not only in the north. Average winter temperature, rainfall, and urban or agricultural land use did not explain the mangroves' expansion. Only fewer freezing days at the northern end of their range matched the trend.

The researchers are studying effects on coastal insects and birds; whether the change will affect coastal ecosystems' ability to store carbon; and whether juvenile fish and commercially valuable shellfish will remain abundant in the changing plant communities.

Cavanaugh is looking at Landsat 5 imagery for Mexico, Peru, Brazil, Australia and New Zealand to see if mangroves are expanding elsewhere as they are in Florida.

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North Atlantic atmospheric oscillation affects quality of cava

The quality of cava depends on technical factors such as fermentation, aging and bottling processes, which usually remain stable for years. Researchers from Malaga University (Spain) have discovered that oscillations in the North Atlantic -that affects European climate- also have an effect on the attributes of this sparkling wine. The years in which there is presence of the Azores anticyclone, there is a drop in the quality of cava.

The researchers Raimundo Real and Jos? Carlos B?ez, from the University of Malaga, have analysed the possible effects of the North Atlantic oscillation, known in scientific literature as NAO, on the quality of Spanish cava in a study published in the International Journal of Biometeorology.

The NAO is a microclimate index that reflects the atmospheric pressure difference between the Azores and Iceland, so the presence of an anticyclone in the Azores is positive and it is negative if there are areas of low pressure in that same area. This pressure difference that oscillates over time, has a direct effect on the weather conditions in the Iberian Peninsula.

"We discovered there was a connection between the NAO and the quality of cava between 1970 and 2008. The existence of positive NAO values during the months of March to August, when the grape is developing and maturing, reduced the capacity of obtaining top quality cava," Raimundo Real told SINC.

The North Atlantic oscillation plays a major role in weather fluctuations in the hemisphere. The phenomenon affects the climate in Europe and the Iberian Peninsula. It is related to temperature and rain variations in cava producing regions, which affects the physiological processes during the grape's period of maturity.

"The likelihood of obtaining a top quality cava is higher when the average value of the NAO is negative. This makes the average temperature in the cava region drop and the quality improves," the expert explained.

Inter-annual variations in the quality of cava are determined according to the different aromas and the amount of sugar in the grape. These qualities of the plant in turn, in one area of production, depend on weather conditions, such as cloud cover, temperature and rainfall to which the plant is subjected, particularly during the grape period (March to September).

Predicting the years of top-quality cava

The climate in the Atlantic Ocean, the Mediterranean basin and the surrounding continents shows considerable weather variability.

"During half of the years we analysed, the NAO values are intermediate and do not clearly affect the quality of the cava, but in the other half, the values are more extreme and lead to clearly favorable or unfavorable conditions for obtaining top-quality," says Real.

The information for 2012 pointed towards an 80% likelihood of obtaining a top-quality cava, while this likelihood is around 45% for 2013, always according to the model obtained. The model correctly predicted the 80% for the clearly favorable years for obtaining top-quality cava and the 70% likelihood of the clearly unfavorable years.

The NAO value between March and August can be calculated in the actual wine harvest time, while the quality of the cava can only be valued two years later. "This is important for being able to predict years of top-quality cava production, as well as for exploring the possible effects and variations of climate change on the quality" he concluded.

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North Carolina Gov. Bev Perdue Suggests Suspending the Next Election (ContributorNetwork)

COMMENTARY | Faced with a political tsunami that might make the 2010 election seem mild by comparison, North Carolina Gov. Bev Perdue suggested suspending the next election so government can focus on the economy.

Was she joking or was she in earnest? Does it matter?

Perdue seems to reflect a wide spread discontent among Democratic elites with the angry voters who keep messing things up by objecting to the government's handling of the economy. Former Barack Obama Budget Director Peter Orszag, for example, proposed using commissions and automatic triggers to insulate Congress for the ire of voters over tax increases and budget cuts he feels will be necessary to reduce the massive budget deficit. At least Orszag's idea pretends to adhere to the Constitution, which Perdue does not.

Trust in the federal government is at an all-time low, according to recent polling. To be sure that it is understandable that people like Perdue and Orszag are searching for some kind of mechanism to get Congress to do its duty and do what is necessary. But do they really think the American people will be appeased by, in effect, suspending democracy?

Mind, Perdue is enjoying the double standard the media imposes on Democratic lawmakers vis-à-vis Republicans. Imagine if in 2007 a Republican governor had proposed suspending the 2008 election so President George W. Bush could conclude the war in Iraq favorably. Such a person so incautious would be forced to resign the very next day amidst headlines that Republicans want to overthrow the Constitution. But Perdue gets a pass by the media, with suggestions she is just joking.

American democracy, particularly in these troubled times, is not a thing to joke about. If people are irate at their government now, imagine the anger if someone seriously proposed to just not have an election next year. Elections are, after all, a means for people to peacefully express their anger by throwing the bums out. Take that mechanism away, and what is left?

Is it any wonder, then, the tea party, inspired by the American Revolution, has become the greatest force in American politics? When people in public office behave like King George, they should expect Americans to start behaving like the men who gathered at Lexington and Concord. For a growing number of people, November 2012 cannot come fast enough.

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Hurricane Irene Heading Toward North Carolina Four Months After Tornado (ContributorNetwork)

FIRST PERSON | SANFORD, N.C. -- As I write this story, I am watching the local news, which has been tightly focused on Hurricane Irene's steady approach toward North Carolina. I grew up in Virginia and attended graduate school in South Carolina, so I've seen my share of hurricanes. One thing I've noticed is that hurricanes seem particularly fond of hitting North Carolina. I have watched this state bear the brunt of storm after storm, while Virginia and South Carolina often end up relatively unscathed.

Another reason I'm nervous about Hurricane Irene is because about four months ago, my husband and I weathered our first tornado. The tornado hit Sanford, N.C., with a vengeance; thankfully, our house was not damaged, but the remnants of that storm are still clearly evident not even a quarter mile from our home.

The neighborhood just east of ours looks like it was attacked by a drunken lumberjack, with dozens of mature trees that were snapped in half after just a few minutes of severe rain and high winds. There are still plenty of boarded up homes, sheared off trees, pieces of scrap metal embedded in tree trunks and tarps on roofs to remind us of the catastrophic wrath Mother Nature can unexpectedly unleash. My memories of that scary tornado are still very fresh and have made it impossible for me to be apathetic about the approaching storm that could be affecting us this weekend.

Sanford, along with many other places on the East Coast, also experienced a very rare earthquake today. This rare earthquake, preceding what is forecast to be a substantial hurricane, will no doubt make plenty of people nervous.

Thanks to the tornado that hit Sanford in April, I have already invested in an emergency radio that runs on solar power. This morning, I reminded my husband to pick up some batteries, water, propane, matches and candles in preparation for the storm.

I also asked my husband if he thought we might want to purchase a generator, but then I remembered our local Lowe's hardware store was destroyed during the tornado. One thing the tornado taught me is that the local radio station is great during a crisis; I expect to be able to tune into WJFA Classic Hits and Oldies and get up-to-the-minute coverage of how Hurricane Irene has affected Sanford and where we can go for help if we need it. That's a small comfort in the face of a big storm.

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Red Cross: Floods hit North Korean province hard (AP)

SEOUL, South Korea – More than 4,700 homes in one North Korean province were destroyed or damaged by extensive flooding spawned by torrential rains in late July, according to a Red Cross report.

The International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies also said that more than 28,000 people were affected by the July 25-27 rains in South Hwanghae province in the impoverished country's southwest.

The report on the province released this week gave no independent estimate of how many people died, but cited a North Korean government death toll of 26. The Red Cross said 96 people were injured.

Heavy rain can be catastrophic for North Korea due to poor drainage, deforestation and dilapidated infrastructure. Floods in 2007 left some 600 people dead or missing and about 100,000 others homeless.

Particularly heavy rainfall pounded the Korean peninsula in late July. Flooding and landslides caused dozens of deaths in South Korea as well.

North Korea's state news agency reported Friday that the heavy rains caused flooding that killed about 30 people and left almost 16,000 homeless. The Korean Central News Agency did not provide a breakdown by region, but described South Hwanghae as the "largest victim."

North Korea, which perennially suffers food shortages, has said that harvests will likely be hurt this year because of extensive damage to farmland.

A total of 4,753 homes were either destroyed or damaged in South Hwanghae, according to the Red Cross report. Of that total, 2,901 were demolished.

The Red Cross said "food, clean water, shelter, basic supplies and reconstruction of dwellings" were urgently needed and that it and North Korea's Red Cross have sent assistance to the area.

KCNA reported Thursday that leader Kim Jong Il sent a reply to Chinese President Hu Jintao expressing thanks for having sent a message of sympathy over the flooding. China, which has offered flood relief to North Korea, is the country's closest ally.

South Korea has also offered aid, but North Korea has yet to respond.

North Korean weather forecasters are predicting more heavy rain Monday and Tuesday in parts of the country due to a typhoon heading for neighboring China.

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Flooding submerges parts of North Dakota city (Reuters)

MINOT, North Dakota (Reuters) – The swollen Souris River whose waters deluged North Dakota's fourth-largest city of Minot, was expected to crest early on Sunday, with storms threatening to complicate efforts to contain the biggest flood in area history.

Local and federal officials worked feverishly to reinforce levees, protect the city's key infrastructure and care for thousands of residents forced to flee their submerged homes.

By Saturday evening, the Souris, which flows from Canada southeast into North Dakota, was at least 3.5 feet above the 130-year-old record it shattered on Friday.

Under current conditions, the river is expected to crest by Sunday morning at 3.8 feet above that record, according to the National Weather Service.

"We will continue to be at this highest level for the next several days," said Minot Mayor Curt Zimbelman, adding that the possibility of rain could complicate containment efforts.

"There is a cluster of thunderstorms that are pretty close to Minot now. It looks like a couple of inches of rain could impact some of the areas with flooding," said Rich Thompson, a lead forecaster at the National Weather Service's Storm Prediction Center.

There have been no reported deaths or injuries.

"There is still a tremendous amount of water and even when this crest has passed, there will be months of a recovery effort," U.S. Army Corps of Engineers spokesman Jeffrey DeZellar said.

"When the water goes down it relieves pressure on emergency levees, but there has been so much damage done to the community that there is going to be a tremendous recovery effort," DeZellar said.

Authorities were also trying to stop a walking bridge that collapsed in the middle of the river from crashing into a downriver dam, a Minot Fire Department official said. The bridge had not moved as of Saturday evening.

Floodwaters have all but swallowed more than 3,000 Minot-area homes, according to North Dakota Department of Emergency Services spokeswoman Cecily Fong.

Officials' attention has turned to displaced residents, more than 12,000 of whom heeded mandatory evacuation calls.

Some moved in with friends or family, but more than 250 people were holed up in Red Cross shelters at a city auditorium and Minot State University or at the Minot Air Force Base.

More evacuees were expected from the towns of Turtle Lake, Velva and Sawyer, among others, according to Allan McGeough, executive director of the mid-Dakota chapter of the Red Cross.

In Sawyer, about 16 miles southeast of Minot, 400 residents were told to evacuate after river water rushed through a downtown roadway, and as many as 300 people in Velva will require shelter, McGeough said.

Flood warnings have been issued from Burlington, northwest of Minot, through Logan and Sawyer to the southeast.

The massive flooding in Minot has overshadowed temporarily the widening deluge along the Missouri River that threatens cities from Montana through Missouri.

Federal officials have pushed record water releases from six reservoirs along the Upper Missouri River that are near capacity because of a deep melting snowpack and heavy rains.

Those reservoirs have little capacity for additional rain, and record releases are expected to continue through August, causing widespread flooding in Nebraska, Iowa, and Missouri.

Heavy rains across the Souris River Basin left Canadian reservoirs over capacity. Water rushing down from Canada has forced U.S. officials to make record-large releases from the Lake Darling Dam above Minot and other communities.

(Writing by Eric Johnson; Editing by Ellen Wulfhorst)

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Tornado Warnings in North Texas Shut Down Airports (ContributorNetwork)

The unwelcome and increasingly familiar sound of tornado warning sirens were heard in yet another state early Wednesday, as officials warned residents in parts of Texas of the possibility that funnel clouds may touch down. The warning covered much of Texas County, following an alert by the National Weather Service that reported cloud formations favorable to the formation of tornadoes.

The Texas County twisters never materialized, to the relief of residents there, but warnings were also issued for North Texas as well, disrupting air travel as potential passengers were forced to evacuate Dallas airports ahead of storms. The area suffered hail and high winds, but fortunately no tornadoes. Airport officials were reportedly being cautious about reopening the airports before inspecting aircraft for damage from the hailstorm.

With the slew of violent storms that have whipped across the central and southern U.S. in recent months have come widespread devastation and an increasingly heavy loss of life. The tornado that leveled Joplin, Mo., on Sunday is now known to have claimed the lives of at least 125 people, with hundreds more still missing.

Just a few days later, more tornadoes in Oklahoma, Arkansas and Kansas claimed the lives of an additional 14 people. That storm system is heading eastward, placing Arkansas, Mississippi, Indiana and Illinois on alert for more tornado activity.

Several media outlets have reported on the alarmingly high rate of tornado activity so far this year. The United States averages approximately 700 tornadoes in the first half of any given year, yet 2011 has already seen more than 1,200 funnels, with at least 500 dead. Weather forecasters blame the patterns of La Nina for the increased activity, and warn that this may be just the beginning.

Not good news for places like Joplin, where search-and-rescue efforts continued through the night on Tuesday and into Wednesday despite the threat of more storms and tornadoes. So far more than 17 people have been pulled from the wreckage. 823 are reported as injured, and an unknown number, thought to be in the hundreds, are still missing.

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Gawkers, Opportunists Descend on North Minneapolis After Tornado (ContributorNetwork)

COMMENTARY | NORTH MINNEAPOLIS -- Welcome to the carnival of destruction. Come one, come all, come revel at Mother Nature's ability to bring the most feared area of Minneapolis to it knees, begging for forgiveness.

Last night, Mother Nature sent the struggling people of North Minneapolis a curve ball in our already tough lives. A tornado touched down "over north," as we affectionately call our neighborhood, and rain is in the forecast to further worsen things. Most of us in North Minneapolis are having a hard enough time struggling with neighborhood drug dealers, burglars and murderers roaming free. Now we must contend with the area becoming a media circus, the storm chasers coming to exploit us, and the gawkers who come to see us in our misery.

North Minneapolis is know as the crime center of Minneapolis. People typically avoid this area, and most are afraid to even drive through. The media rarely pay any attention to this neighborhood and our struggle against, murder, drugs and robbery. Someone is murdered in North Minneapolis nearly every week and only about half of those cases are ever solved. You would never know that judging from the local news coverage of these murders.

Now that a tornado has ripped the lives of our neighborhood apart we can't keep the media out. The news channels can't wait to let all the good suburbanites know how this tornado could have happen to them. People only seem to care when they can feel the fear themselves. When its us killing each other and overdosing on drugs, that's not their problem, that couldn't happen to them. But a tornado in North Minneapolis -- that's real; it could happen anywhere.

Coupled with the media, we have storm chasers coming to exploit our misery from this tornado. Theses pieces of human scum have come to make sure our local carpenters, roofers, and contractors don't get all the insurance jobs. Our neighborhood is filled with capable construction workers but the home owners are struggling and will give the work to whatever slick talking storm chaser offers them the most cash back on their insurance job from the Minneapolis tornado. Storm chasers are taking jobs that belong to our community and distributing them out to people that need them a lot less.

Even with all the people coming to North Minneapolis to exploit us, I think there is one group that bothers me even more, the gawkers. Most of theses people wouldn't dare step foot, or even drive through North Minneapolis. But after a tornado, they can't help to come stare with shock and amazement at the unfortunate souls living in North Minneapolis. Cars are lined up for blocks just to take a peek at us or snap a photo. These people have come to entertain themselves with our struggles, not to stay and help relive us of it. Let me save you some time, here is some pictures of tornado damage from my block in North Minneapolis, feel free to stay off of it, now that you have seen it.

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