New insights into predicting future droughts in California: Natural cycles, sea surface temperatures found to be main drivers in ongoing event

According to a new NOAA-sponsored study, natural oceanic and atmospheric patterns are the primary drivers behind California's ongoing drought. A high pressure ridge off the West Coast (typical of historic droughts) prevailed for three winters, blocking important wet season storms, with ocean surface temperature patterns making such a ridge much more likely. Typically, the winter season in California provides the state with a majority of its annual snow and rainfall that replenish water supplies for communities and ecosystems.

Further studies on these oceanic conditions and their effect on California's climate may lead to advances in drought early warning that can help water managers and major industries better prepare for lengthy dry spells in the future.

"It's important to note that California's drought, while extreme, is not an uncommon occurrence for the state. In fact, multi-year droughts appear regularly in the state's climate record, and it's a safe bet that a similar event will happen again. Thus, preparedness is key," said Richard Seager, report lead author and professor with Columbia University's Lamont Doherty Earth Observatory.

This report builds on earlier studies, published in September in the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, which found no conclusive evidence linking human-caused climate change and the California drought. The current study notes that the atmospheric ridge over the North Pacific, which has resulted in decreased rain and snowfall since 2011, is almost opposite to what models project to result from human-induced climate change. The report illustrates that mid-winter precipitation is actually projected to increase due to human-induced climate change over most of the state, though warming temperatures may sap much of those benefits for water resources overall, while only spring precipitation is projected to decrease.

The report makes clear that to provide improved drought forecasts for California, scientists will need to fully understand the links between sea surface temperature variations and winter precipitation over the state, discover how these ocean variations are generated, and better characterize their predictability.

This report contributes to a growing field of science-climate attribution-where teams of scientists aim to identify the sources of observed climate and weather patterns.

"There is immense value in examining the causes of this drought from multiple scientific viewpoints," said Marty Hoerling, report co-author and researcher with NOAA's Earth System Research Laboratory. "It's paramount that we use our collective ability to provide communities and businesses with the environmental intelligence they need to make decisions concerning water resources, which are becoming increasingly strained."

To view the report, visit:?http://cpo.noaa.gov/MAPP/californiadroughtreport.

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Natural variation: Warm North Atlantic Sea encourages extreme winters in U.S. and Europe

The ultimate cold temperature observed across Europe and also the new england of america in recent winters might be partially lower to natural, lengthy-term versions in ocean surface temps, according to a different study released today.

Scientists in the College of California Irvine have proven that the phenomenon referred to as Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) -- an all natural pattern of variation in North Atlantic ocean surface temps that switches between an optimistic and negative phase every 60-70 years -- can impact an atmospheric circulation pattern, referred to as North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), that influences the temperature and precipitation within the Northern Hemisphere in the winter months.

Once the AMO is within its positive phase and also the ocean surface temps are warmer, the research has proven the primary effect in the winter months would be to promote the negative phase from the NAO which results in "obstructing" episodes within the North Atlantic sector, permitting cold temperature systems to exist within the eastern US and Europe.

The outcomes happen to be released today, Wednesday 2 April, in IOP Publishing's journal Environment Research Letters.

To reach their results, the scientists combined findings in the past century with climate simulations from the atmospheric reaction to the AMO.

Based on their findings, ocean surface temps within the Atlantic can depend on 1.5 ?C warmer within the Gulf Stream region throughout the positive phase from the AMO in comparison towards the negative, cooler phase. The weather simulations claim that these anomalies in ocean surface temps can enjoy a predominant role in marketing the modification within the NAO.

Lead authors from the study Yannick Peings and Gudrun Magnusdottir stated: "Our results indicate the primary aftereffect of the positive AMO in the winter months would be to promote the appearance of the negative phase from the NAO. An adverse NAO in the winter months usually goes hands-in-hands with cold temperature within the eastern US and north-the european union.Inch

The findings also suggest that it requires around 10-fifteen years prior to the positive phase of AMO has any important effect around the NAO. The reason behind this lag is unknown however, a reason may be that AMO phases make time to develop fully.

Because the AMO has been around an optimistic phase because the early the nineteen nineties, it might have led towards the extreme winters that both US and Europe have observed recently.

The scientists warn, however, the future evolution from the AMO remains uncertain, with lots of factors potentially affecting the way it interacts with atmospheric circulation designs, for example Arctic ocean ice loss, alterations in photo voltaic radiation, volcanic eruptions and levels of green house gases within the atmosphere.

The AMO also shows strong variability in one year to another additionally towards the changes seen every 60 - 70 years, which causes it to be hard to attribute specific extreme winters towards the AMO's effects.

Reacting towards the extreme weather that held the eastern coast of america this winter, Yannick Peings ongoing: "Unlike the 2012/2013 winter, this winter had rather low values from the AMO index and also the pattern of ocean surface temperature anomalies wasn't in conjuction with the typical positive AMO pattern. Furthermore, the NAO was mostly positive having a relatively mild winter over Europe."

"It is therefore unlikely the positive AMO performed a determining role around the new england of america, although further jobs are essential to answer this. This kind of event is in conjuction with the large internal variability from the atmosphere, along with other exterior forcings might have performed a job.

"Our future studies will turn to compare the function from the AMO in comparison to Arctic ocean ice anomalies, which are also proven to affect atmospheric circulation designs and promote cooler, more extreme winters."

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Going Against the Green Grain on Natural Gas

HOUSTON—The Environmental Defense Fund is known for its willingness to work with industry on energy and climate-change policies. That inclination is on display more than ever at a major energy conference that kicked off here on Monday with a heavy focus on the development of natural gas.

More than 300 experts and executives from the global energy industry are attending the IHS Cambridge Energy Research Associates annual conference, known as CERA Week, and just a handful of them bring an environmental viewpoint to the proceedings. Among those are two experts from New York-based EDF, an influential environmental group that often deviates from its counterparts such as the Sierra Club to partner with fossil-fuel industries.

“You don’t make change by simply talking to people who agree with you,” Mark Brownstein, deputy director of the energy program at EDF, told National Journal Daily after speaking on a panel about natural gas on Monday. “You certainly don’t make change if you’re not knowledgeable about the folks that you’re trying to change.”

EDF President Fred Krupp speaks on another panel, also about natural gas, on Wednesday.

Many environmental groups are critical of natural gas, specifically the controversial method used to extract the recently discovered reserves of shale natural gas all over the country.

Hydraulic fracturing, commonly known as “fracking,” is a process in which large amounts of water, chemicals, and sand are pumped into a well at high pressures to fracture rock and allow natural gas to escape. Concerns persist about water contamination and the climate-change impact of methane, a potent greenhouse gas that escapes during the gas production process.  Natural gas burns 50 percent more cleanly than coal, but less data is available on what impact methane emissions during production are having on climate change.

“If we’re not able to do this correctly, it will fundamentally limit the supply and limit the opportunity,” Brownstein said.

Brownstein was a lone wolf on a panel of six experts; the others were all from the energy sector. Some often looked to Brownstein for the other perspective, with “other” meaning anything besides the views of an energy company or consulting firm.

The experts were discussing a new study of North America’s recently-discovered reserves of shale natural gas. Brownstein worked with industry on the report, which was led by the National Petroleum Council, a federal advisory committee made up of oil and gas executives.

“The most surprising thing to me was actually participating,” Brownstein quipped about the report.

In his closing remarks, Brownstein made a bid to win over critics of natural gas by arguing for its potential to provide the country with bountiful, and comparatively clean, energy.

“Plenty of people out there are betting that it won’t happen and preparing for the eventuality that it won’t,” Brownstein said. “I think it’s up to all of us in the room to, frankly, prove them wrong.”

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