Even in restored forests, extreme weather strongly influences wildfire's impacts

The 2013 Rim Fire, the largest wildland fire ever recorded in the Sierra Nevada region, is still fresh in the minds of Californians, as is the urgent need to bring forests back to a more resilient condition. Land managers are using fire as a tool to mimic past fire conditions, restore fire-dependent forests, and reduce fuels in an effort to lessen the potential for large, high-intensity fires, like the Rim Fire. A study led by the U.S. Forest Service's Pacific Southwest Research Station (PSW) and recently published in the journal Forest Ecology and Management examined how the Rim Fire burned through forests with restored fire regimes in Yosemite National Park to determine whether they were as resistant to high-severity fire as many scientists and land managers expected.

Since the late 1960s, land managers in Yosemite National Park have used prescribed fire and let lower intensity wildland fires burn in an attempt to bring back historical fire regimes after decades of fire suppression. For this study, researchers seized a unique opportunity to study data on forest structure and fuels collected in 2009 and 2010 in Yosemite's old-growth, mixed-conifer forests that had previously burned at low to moderate severity. Using post-Rim Fire data and imagery, researchers found that areas burned on days the Rim Fire was dominated by a large pyro-convective plume -- a powerful column of smoke, gases, ash, and other debris -- burned at moderate to high severity regardless of the number of prior fires, topography, or forest conditions.

"The specific conditions leading to large plume formation are unknown, but what is clear from many observations is that these plumes are associated with extreme burning conditions," says Jamie Lydersen, PSW biological science technician and the study's lead author. "Plumes often form when atmospheric conditions are unstable, and result in erratic fire behavior driven by its own local effect on surface wind and temperatures that override the influence of more generalized climate factors measured at nearby weather stations."

When the extreme conditions caused by these plumes subsided during the Rim Fire, other factors influenced burn severity. "There was a strong influence of elapsed time since the last burn, where forests that experienced fire within the last 14 years burned mainly at low severity in the Rim Fire. Lower elevation areas and those with greater shrub cover tended to burn at higher severity," says Lydersen.

When driven by extreme weather, which often coincides with wildfires that escape initial containment efforts, fires can severely burn large swaths of forest regardless of ownership and fire history. These fires may only be controlled if more forests across the landscape have been managed for fuel reduction to allow early stage suppression before weather- and fuels-driven fire intensity makes containment impossible. Coordination of fire management activities by land management agencies across jurisdictions could favor burning under more moderate weather conditions when wildfires start and reduce the occurrences of harmful, high-intensity fires.

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Scientists nearing forecasts of long-lived wildfires

Scientists have developed a new computer modeling technique that offers the promise, for the first time, of producing continually updated daylong predictions of wildfire growth throughout the lifetime of long-lived blazes.

The technique, devised by scientists at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) and the University of Maryland, combines cutting-edge simulations portraying the interaction of weather and fire behavior with newly available satellite observations of active wildfires. Updated with new observations every 12 hours, the computer model predicts critical details such as the extent of the blaze and changes in its behavior.

The breakthrough is described in a study appearing today in an online issue of Geophysical Research Letters, after first being posted online last month.

"With this technique, we believe it's possible to continually issue good forecasts throughout a fire's lifetime, even if it burns for weeks or months," said NCAR scientist Janice Coen, the lead author and model developer. "This model, which combines interactive weather prediction and wildfire behavior, could greatly improve forecasting -- particularly for large, intense wildfire events where the current prediction tools are weakest."

Firefighters currently use tools that can estimate the speed of the leading edge a fire but are too simple to capture crucial effects caused by the interaction of fire and weather.

The researchers successfully tested the new technique by using it retrospectively on the 2012 Little Bear Fire in New Mexico, which burned for almost three weeks and destroyed more buildings than any other wildfire in the state's history.

The research was funded by NASA, the Federal Emergency Management Agency, and the National Science Foundation, which is NCAR's sponsor.

Sharpening the picture

In order to generate an accurate forecast of a wildfire, scientists need a computer model that can both incorporate current data about the fire and simulate what it will do in the near future.

Over the last decade, Coen has developed a tool, known as the Coupled Atmosphere-Wildland Fire Environment (CAWFE) computer model, that connects how weather drives fires and, in turn, how fires create their own weather. Using CAWFE, she successfully simulated the details of how large fires grew.

But without the most updated data about a fire's current state, CAWFE could not reliably produce a longer-term prediction of an ongoing fire. This is because the accuracy of all fine-scale weather simulations declines significantly after a day or two, thus affecting the simulation of the blaze. An accurate forecast would also have to include updates on the effects of firefighting and of such processes as spotting, in which embers from a fire are lofted in the fire plume and dropped ahead of a fire, igniting new flames.

Until now, the kind of real-time data that would be needed to regularly update the model has not been avaliable. Satellite instruments offered only coarse observations of fires, providing images in which each pixel represented an area a little more than a half mile across (1 kilometer by 1 kilometer). These images might show several places burning, but they could not distinguish the boundaries between burning and non-burning areas, except for the largest wildfires.

To solve the problem, Coen's co-author, Wilfrid Schroeder of the University of Maryland, has produced higher-resolution fire detection data from a new satellite instrument, the Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS), which is jointly operated by NASA and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). Launched in 2011, this new tool provides coverage of the entire globe at intervals of 12 hours or less, with pixels about 1,200 feet across (375 meters). The higher resolution enabled the two researchers to outline the active fire perimeter in much greater detail.

Coen and Schroeder then fed the VIIRS fire observations into the CAWFE model. By restarting the model every 12 hours with the latest observations of the fire extent -- a process known as cycling -- they could accurately predict the course of the Little Bear fire in 12- to 24-hour increments during five days of the historic blaze. By continuing this way, it would be possible to simulate the entire lifetime of even a very long-lived fire, from ignition to extinction.

"The transformative event has been the arrival of this new satellite data," said Schroeder, a professor of geographical sciences who is also a visiting scientist with NOAA. "The enhanced capability of the VIIRS data favors detection of newly ignited fires before they erupt into major conflagrations. The satellite data has tremendous potential to supplement fire management and decision support systems, sharpening the local, regional, and continental monitoring of wildfires."

Keeping firefighters safe

The researchers said that forecasts using the new technique could be particularly useful in anticipating sudden blowups and shifts in the direction of the flames, such as what happened when 19 firefighters perished in Arizona last summer.

In addition, they could enable decision makers to look at several newly ignited fires and determine which pose the greatest threat.

"Lives and homes are at stake, depending on some of these decisions, and the interaction of fuels, terrain, and changing weather is so complicated that even seasoned managers can't always anticipate rapidly changing conditions," Coen said. "Many people have resigned themselves to believing that wildfires are unpredictable. We're showing that's not true."

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'Epic dryness' feeding Western wildfires

In the Rocky Mountain West, firefighters say they've never seen the trees and grasses this dry so early in the summer.

By David Zalubowski, AP

A couple watch a wildfire as it rolls through housing subdivisions in the mountains north and west of Colorado Springs on Wednesday.

By David Zalubowski, AP

A couple watch a wildfire as it rolls through housing subdivisions in the mountains north and west of Colorado Springs on Wednesday.

"It's epic dryness," says Beth Lund, leader of the incident management team assigned to the High Park Fire, which has burned 135 square miles near Fort Collins, Colo., and destroyed at least 257 homes. It is now the most destructive in recorded Colorado history.

But hardly the only one. Ten separate fires are burning in Colorado, prompting a planned visit Friday by President Obama. They threaten the U.S. Air Force Academy, the town of Boulder and the city of Colorado Springs.

Colorado isn't the only state affected by an exceptionally severe fire season, with crews battling blazes in Alaska, Arizona, California, Montana, Nevada, New Mexico, Utah and Wyoming.

"The whole Central Rocky Mountain range is a tinderbox," says Ron Roth, of the Rocky Mountain Area Coordinating Center in Lakewood, Colo.

A light winter snow pack, dry spring, more people living in what was once wilderness and the long-term effects of climate change have all conspired to make this an especially bad fire season, Roth says. "We've got trees torching, tornadoes of fire — this is extreme fire behavior," he says.

The exceptional danger is a combination of very dry vegetation and waves of lightning storms, says Lee Bently, a public information officer for the incident management team responsible for the High Park Fire. "It's just instant ignition."

The front range of the Rockies has been suffering a long siege of dry weather, says Ed Delgado, national predictive services meteorologist with the National Interagency Fire Center in Boise.

Climate change is undoubtedly playing a role, if only in the distribution of invasive insects, Delgado says. The pine bark beetle has been migrating north for years as warmer winters allow it to survive outside its previous range. The insects have killed millions of acres of forest, leaving behind tinder-dry wood.

"When that timber goes dead, it doesn't make for a real good situation when the fire comes," Bently says.

Those fires are all the more dangerous to humans because of the increasing numbers of Americans who choose to live in what once would have been called wilderness. "As people move into those urban interface areas, it creates more of a challenge for us to suppress those fires," Roth says.

Contributing: Hughes reports for the Fort Collins Coloradoan

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Colorado wildfires ruthlessly march on

An earlier version of this story misstated the size of the High Park wildfire.

By RJ Sangosti, Denver Post via AP

The Waldo Canyon blaze destroyed much of the Mountain Shadows subdivision in Colorado Springs.

By RJ Sangosti, Denver Post via AP

The Waldo Canyon blaze destroyed much of the Mountain Shadows subdivision in Colorado Springs.

FORT COLLINS, Colo. — As flames from a destructive, uncontrolled wildfire licked the southwestern end of their campus, more than 1,000 cadets arrived at the Air Force Academy in Colorado Springs on Thursday to begin their studies.

Housing units in the southern part of the 18,500-acre academy had been evacuated Tuesday as a precaution, and a 10-acre fire briefly flared in that area Wednesday, academy spokesman Harry Lundy said.

Processing of the 1,045 "doolies," as freshmen are known, went smoothly at the north end of campus despite the looming Waldo Canyon wildfire. Evacuees are being housed at nearby military facilities, he said.

President Barack Obama will tour wildfire-stricken Colorado Friday, where thousands of people have been displaced by out-of-control blazes.

The president's visit comes as about half of the active federal firefighting resources are in Colorado, where extremely hot and dry conditions have triggered several large wildfires during the last month.

Nationally, firefighters were battling 41 major fires Thursday, the National Interagency Fire Center reported. Hot weather, lightning strikes and dry, unpredictable winds pushed the number of fires to 242, 11 of them defined as large by the fire center. The definition varies depending on terrain and danger to human habitation, said Coleen Decker at the National Interagency Fire Center in Boise.

There were 2,864 firefighters at work, aided by 107 helicopters dumping fire retardant and water. The firefighting cost for the year so far: $119.8 million, according to the center.

The weekend will bring little relief to Colorado Springs, Decker said. Temperatures might dip slightly from 103 degrees to 100, she said. Flame-spreading winds are forecast to be weaker, but thunderstorms could light new fires .

Colorado, with three major blazes, has the worst of it. The Waldo Canyon wildfire has burned more than 28 square miles, including neighborhoods in Colorado Springs. Mayor Steve Bach said 346 homes have been incinerated, making it the most destructive fire in state history.

Northwest of Fort Collins, firefighters said they were getting ahead of the 136-square-mile High Park fire that killed a woman and destroyed at least 257 homes after being sparked by lighting June 9. The fire was 75% contained and could be under control early next week, said Jim Toomey of the Larimer County sheriff's office.

Near Boulder, containment of the Flagstaff wildfire west of the city grew to 30%. The fire burned 300 acres, but 26 families that were evacuated Tuesday when the fire began were allowed back Thursday evening.

The fire was "one ridge away from impacting the city," said Dan Rowland, a spokesman for the Flagstaff wildfire management team. "That would have been a game-changer."

"We are on heavy alert going forward," he said. "We're watching it every day."

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Hughes also reports for the Fort Collins Coloradoan. Weise reported from San Francisco.Contributing: Associated Press

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Raging wildfires scorch Western USA

ALBUQUERQUE, N.M. (AP) – Firefighters are battling a massive wildfire in southwestern New Mexico that has destroyed a dozen cabins and spread smoke across the state, prompting holiday weekend air-quality warnings.

By Gregory Bull, AP

Firefighter Scott Abraham sprays water as his crew tries to keep a wildfire from crossing a San Diego County road on Friday near Julian, Calif.

By Gregory Bull, AP

Firefighter Scott Abraham sprays water as his crew tries to keep a wildfire from crossing a San Diego County road on Friday near Julian, Calif.

The fire burned early Saturday through remote and rugged terrain around the Gila Wilderness and has grown to 85,000 acres or more than 130 square miles.

The heavy smoke apparently disoriented six hikers Friday, prompting the New Mexico National Guard to carry out a rescue.

Col. Michael Montoya said one of them had an injured knee and had to be taken to safety by ambulance. The others were able to walk to a secure area.

More than 500 firefighters are battling the blaze that resulted from the merger earlier this week of two lightning-sparked fires. Fire officials say nearly all of the growth has come in recent days due to relentless winds.

The blaze has destroyed 12 cabins and seven small outbuildings, and the privately owned ghost town of Mogollon was placed under a voluntary evacuation order.

The strong winds pushed ash from the blaze 35 to 40 miles away, while smoke from the giant fire spread across the state and into Arizona. The haze blocked views of the Sandia Mountains in Albuquerque, and a smell of smoke permeated the air throughout northern New Mexico.

Health officials as far away as Albuquerque and Santa Fe issued alerts for the holiday weekend, advising people to limit outdoor activities, keep windows closed.

They said the effects on most people would be minor but noted mild throat and eye irritation or allergy-like symptoms could be expected. Officials warned people with heart and lung conditions to be especially diligent in minimizing their exposure to the smoky air.

Meanwhile, in Colorado, officials said heavy air tankers and thousands of firefighters were on standby Friday as fire managers kept a close watch on high winds and hot temperatures at the start of Memorial Day weekend. Fire danger remains high in the southern Colorado foothills and the South Park area.

Two heavy air tankers have been taken to Grand Junction in western Colorado, where the fire danger is highest, U.S. Forest Service spokesman Steve Segin said.

"We've got the resources. We've got the firefighters," Segin said. "We're ready."

The National Weather Service said wind gusts could reach 70 mph Saturday in some western Colorado valleys, with sustained winds of 25 to 40 mph. Most of eastern Colorado also was under a high-wind watch, with sustained winds of 25 to 35 mph and gusts up to 55 mph possible Saturday.

In Southern California, firefighters worked to corral a wildfire that has chewed through 3,100 acres of tinder-dry grass and light brush since it broke out Thursday afternoon east of Julian.

On Friday, the fire forced about 50 people to evacuate an RV park in San Diego County. It earlier prompted the evacuation of about 100 homes in the Shelter Valley area, but residents were allowed to return late Thursday.

The fire was 20% contained, said Nick Schuler, battalion chief for the California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection. No injuries or damage to structures were reported.

In Arizona, residents of the historic mining town of Crown King were allowed to return home after being evacuated because of a wildfire about 85 miles north of Phoenix. The fire started May 13 and has burned more than 16,000 acres. It is 35% contained, fire officials said.

In Nevada, questions were being raised over fire crews' initial response to a backyard burn that rekindled two days later, destroying two homes in a rural community and scorching 7,500 acres.

A 911 recording obtained by the Associated Press showed a resident called Sunday to report that a neighbor's permitted burn in the Topaz Ranch Estates was out of control. Volunteer firefighters with the East Fork Fire Protection District arrived at the scene and then left, apparently without extinguishing the blaze.

Gusty winds rekindled the fire Tuesday, and it spread quickly through thick brush and dry grasses. Two homes and 17 outbuildings were destroyed.

District Fire Chief Tod Carlini did not immediately respond to messages seeking comment Friday.

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Two dead as wildfires scorch Texas, Perry back home (Reuters)

SAN ANTONIO/AUSTIN (Reuters) – Sixty separate wildfires, whipped by winds as Tropical Storm Lee passed, burned across parched Texas on Monday, destroying hundreds of homes and leaving at least two people dead, authorities said.

"I'm still seeing no containment," said April Saginor, public information officer for the Texas Forest Service, who confirmed that the Bastrop County Complex Fire east of the state capital has alone scorched more than 25,000 acres and burned 476 residences so far.

"That's a record in Texas for a single fire," she said of the homes destroyed.

Texas Gov. Rick Perry, the front-running Republican Party presidential candidate, canceled his appearance at a candidate roundtable in South Carolina on Monday to return to Austin.

"I have seen a lot of mean-looking fires in my time, but this one is the meanest. You realize the devastation when you see it first hand," Perry said at a news briefing on Monday.

"I am not paying any attention to politics right now. There are people's homes and lives in danger, and that is far more important," he said to a smattering of applause.

"I have never seen a fire season like this. We have lost more than 3.5 million acres to brush fires, that is an area larger than the state of Connecticut," he said. "We have a long way to go to get this thing contained."

Officials said the worst of the fires was in Bastrop, a country of about 70,000 people thirty miles east of Austin.

Saginor said more than 250 firefighters were working on the Bastrop fire, which stretches for 16 miles with a breadth of six miles in some spots.

"This fire is nowhere near being under control," Bastrop County Emergency Management Coordinator Mike Fisher said.

On Monday a second fire had broken out southwest of the main fire, in southwestern Bastrop County, he said. But crews had been able to contain the main fire north of the Colorado River, and he was confident it is not likely to move into more populated areas west of the main fire zone.

The Service responded on Sunday to 63 new fires burning on more than 32,000 acres, including 22 new large fires.

Authorities in Gregg County, in northeast Texas, said a fire there killed a 20-year-old woman and her 18-month-old daughter, who were trapped in their mobile home by flames.

GUSTS DRIVE SPEED

Residents said the fire had moved at an amazing speed, driven by the strong, gusty winds.

"There was a policeman that started hollering through a big megaphone, telling us to get out of our houses immediately, now!" said a woman who lives in one of the Bastrop County subdivisions.

"This is a shock," said one man as he drove out of the fire zone near Bastrop with his family. "We had some nice plans for Labor Day, and this gives you a sick feeling."

"We know that this is tough on people who have been evacuated," Austin Mayor Lee Leffingwell said. "Especially since there is no set time for people to return."

The Texas Forest Service said 'dozens' of aircraft are responding to fire danger, including four heavy airtankers, 15 single-engine airtankers, and 13 aerial supervision aircraft.

In the Steiner Ranch area of Austin, a separate fire has forced the evacuation of some 1,000 homes. One woman desperately scanned the wall of thick black smoke and flames looking for her lost dog.

"I was just driving around the neighborhood, I'm five months pregnant, and I was taking in smoke and I was freaking out," she said. "I looked to the right of me and everything over there was full of fire, it was just gone."

About 200 homes had to be evacuated due to a brush fire in the Austin suburb of Pflugerville. Another 150 homes were evacuated in Longview, in east Texas. A dozen homes were under mandatory evacuation on Monday near Tyler in east Texas.

The winds sent ash from the fires flying around the state. Residents thirty miles away from Austin woke up on Monday morning to find ashes on their cars parked in their driveways.

Weather forecasters say the winds now fueling the fires should start dying down after midnight on Monday.

"It's going to be horrible for tonight, but the winds will start diminishing after midnight," said Sally Russell, Meteorologist for the Weather Channel. "Winds that are now 35 to 40 miles per hour will be down to 5 to 10 miles an hour after midnight.

(Editing by Mary Wisniewski and Peter Bohan)

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