Significant harmful algal bloom predicted in western Lake Erie this summer

July 2, 2013

Satellite image of 2011 bloom (the most severe in decades).

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(Credit: MERIS/NASA; processed by NOAA/NOS/NCCOS )

NOAA and its research partners predict that the 2013 western Lake Erie harmful algal bloom (HAB) season will have a significant bloom of cyanobacteria, a toxic blue-green algae, this summer. The predicted bloom is expected to be larger than last year, but considerably less than the record-setting 2011 bloom. Bloom impacts will vary across the lake’s western basin. This marks the second time NOAA has issued an annual outlook for western Lake Erie.

“This annual forecast and NOAA’s weekly bulletins provide the most advanced ecological information possible to Great Lakes businesses and resource managers so they can save time and money on the things they do that drive recreational activities and the economy,” said Holly Bamford, Ph.D., NOAA’s assistant administrator for the National Ocean Service.

Satellite image of 2012 bloom (1/6 the size of 2011).

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(Credit: MERIS/NASA; processed by NOAA/NOS/NCCOS)

Harmful algae blooms were common on western Lake Erie in the 1960s and 1970s. After a lapse of nearly 20 years, they have been steadily increasing over the past decade. As an early warning system, NOAA has issued weekly HABS bulletins for western Lake Erie since 2008 through the National Centers for Coastal Ocean Science (NCCOS). The weekly bulletins will continue in 2013.

“This information is critical for tourists, coastal businesses, water treatment plant operators, state and regional natural resource managers and scientists throughout Ohio, the region, and the country,” said Jeff Reutter, Ph.D., director of  Ohio State University’s Sea Grant program and Stone Laboratory. “In Ohio, as part of our Phosphorus Task Force II, we have used information from the NOAA model to help us target reductions in the amount of phosphorus going into the lake that would eliminate, or greatly reduce, the HABs.”

“The timing, size and location of blooms heavily impact our charter businesses,” said Captain Rick Unger, owner of Chief’s Charters and president of the Lake Erie Charter Boat Association. “I use the weekly bulletins to plan my trip routes and fuel costs, but more importantly they help me get our visitors out of their hotel rooms and onto the water.”

The 2013 seasonal forecast, made possible using NOAA models developed by NCCOS scientists, uses an 11-year data set of nutrients flowing into Lake Erie, collected by the Heidelberg University’s National Center for Water Quality Research, and analysis of satellite data from the European Space Agency’s Envisat. In addition to the satellite monitoring of the lake, NOAA’s Great Lakes Environmental Research  Laboratory, Ohio State University’s Sea Grant Program and Stone Laboratory, Heidelberg University, the University of Toledo, and Ohio EPA will be collecting key measurements from the lake as the summer progresses. Those results will provide valuable information to regional managers and assist NCCOS scientists in further refining the accuracy of this forecast’s models.

“Issuing and evaluating this seasonal forecast allows us to develop ways to help resource managers plan for conditions that will occur later in the summer,” said Richard Stumpf, Ph.D., NOAA’s ecological forecasting applied research lead at NCCOS. “Through partnerships with Heidelberg University and Ohio Sea Grant, we bring live tools to regional managers currently facing HAB challenges, but we are also constantly re-calibrating and evolving our forecasting products to meet changing HAB conditions.”

The NOAA forecast models and analyses draw on several sources, including nutrient data from Heidelberg University’s National Center for Water Quality Research and satellite data from
MERIS and NASA’s Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectro-radiometer. Funding to support the
program was provided through NCCOS, NOAA’s Center of Excellence for Great Lakes and Human Health, and NASA’s Applied Science Health and Air Quality Program.

The Lake Erie forecast is part of a NOAA ecological forecasting initiative that aims to deliver accurate, relevant, timely, and reliable ecological forecasts directly to coastal resource managers and the public as part of its stewardship and scientific mandates for coastal, marine and Great Lakes resources. Additionally, NOAA currently provides, or is developing, HABs and hypoxia forecasts for the Gulf of Maine, Chesapeake Bay, the Gulf of Mexico and the Pacific Northwest.

The National Centers for Coastal Ocean Science is the coastal science office for NOAA’s National Ocean Service. Visit our website or follow our blog to read more about NCCOS research.

NOAA’s mission is to understand and predict changes in the Earth's environment, from the depths of the ocean to the surface of the sun, and to conserve and manage our coastal and marine resources. Join us on Facebook, Twitter and our other social media channels.

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'Epic dryness' feeding Western wildfires

In the Rocky Mountain West, firefighters say they've never seen the trees and grasses this dry so early in the summer.

By David Zalubowski, AP

A couple watch a wildfire as it rolls through housing subdivisions in the mountains north and west of Colorado Springs on Wednesday.

By David Zalubowski, AP

A couple watch a wildfire as it rolls through housing subdivisions in the mountains north and west of Colorado Springs on Wednesday.

"It's epic dryness," says Beth Lund, leader of the incident management team assigned to the High Park Fire, which has burned 135 square miles near Fort Collins, Colo., and destroyed at least 257 homes. It is now the most destructive in recorded Colorado history.

But hardly the only one. Ten separate fires are burning in Colorado, prompting a planned visit Friday by President Obama. They threaten the U.S. Air Force Academy, the town of Boulder and the city of Colorado Springs.

Colorado isn't the only state affected by an exceptionally severe fire season, with crews battling blazes in Alaska, Arizona, California, Montana, Nevada, New Mexico, Utah and Wyoming.

"The whole Central Rocky Mountain range is a tinderbox," says Ron Roth, of the Rocky Mountain Area Coordinating Center in Lakewood, Colo.

A light winter snow pack, dry spring, more people living in what was once wilderness and the long-term effects of climate change have all conspired to make this an especially bad fire season, Roth says. "We've got trees torching, tornadoes of fire — this is extreme fire behavior," he says.

The exceptional danger is a combination of very dry vegetation and waves of lightning storms, says Lee Bently, a public information officer for the incident management team responsible for the High Park Fire. "It's just instant ignition."

The front range of the Rockies has been suffering a long siege of dry weather, says Ed Delgado, national predictive services meteorologist with the National Interagency Fire Center in Boise.

Climate change is undoubtedly playing a role, if only in the distribution of invasive insects, Delgado says. The pine bark beetle has been migrating north for years as warmer winters allow it to survive outside its previous range. The insects have killed millions of acres of forest, leaving behind tinder-dry wood.

"When that timber goes dead, it doesn't make for a real good situation when the fire comes," Bently says.

Those fires are all the more dangerous to humans because of the increasing numbers of Americans who choose to live in what once would have been called wilderness. "As people move into those urban interface areas, it creates more of a challenge for us to suppress those fires," Roth says.

Contributing: Hughes reports for the Fort Collins Coloradoan

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Raging wildfires scorch Western USA

ALBUQUERQUE, N.M. (AP) – Firefighters are battling a massive wildfire in southwestern New Mexico that has destroyed a dozen cabins and spread smoke across the state, prompting holiday weekend air-quality warnings.

By Gregory Bull, AP

Firefighter Scott Abraham sprays water as his crew tries to keep a wildfire from crossing a San Diego County road on Friday near Julian, Calif.

By Gregory Bull, AP

Firefighter Scott Abraham sprays water as his crew tries to keep a wildfire from crossing a San Diego County road on Friday near Julian, Calif.

The fire burned early Saturday through remote and rugged terrain around the Gila Wilderness and has grown to 85,000 acres or more than 130 square miles.

The heavy smoke apparently disoriented six hikers Friday, prompting the New Mexico National Guard to carry out a rescue.

Col. Michael Montoya said one of them had an injured knee and had to be taken to safety by ambulance. The others were able to walk to a secure area.

More than 500 firefighters are battling the blaze that resulted from the merger earlier this week of two lightning-sparked fires. Fire officials say nearly all of the growth has come in recent days due to relentless winds.

The blaze has destroyed 12 cabins and seven small outbuildings, and the privately owned ghost town of Mogollon was placed under a voluntary evacuation order.

The strong winds pushed ash from the blaze 35 to 40 miles away, while smoke from the giant fire spread across the state and into Arizona. The haze blocked views of the Sandia Mountains in Albuquerque, and a smell of smoke permeated the air throughout northern New Mexico.

Health officials as far away as Albuquerque and Santa Fe issued alerts for the holiday weekend, advising people to limit outdoor activities, keep windows closed.

They said the effects on most people would be minor but noted mild throat and eye irritation or allergy-like symptoms could be expected. Officials warned people with heart and lung conditions to be especially diligent in minimizing their exposure to the smoky air.

Meanwhile, in Colorado, officials said heavy air tankers and thousands of firefighters were on standby Friday as fire managers kept a close watch on high winds and hot temperatures at the start of Memorial Day weekend. Fire danger remains high in the southern Colorado foothills and the South Park area.

Two heavy air tankers have been taken to Grand Junction in western Colorado, where the fire danger is highest, U.S. Forest Service spokesman Steve Segin said.

"We've got the resources. We've got the firefighters," Segin said. "We're ready."

The National Weather Service said wind gusts could reach 70 mph Saturday in some western Colorado valleys, with sustained winds of 25 to 40 mph. Most of eastern Colorado also was under a high-wind watch, with sustained winds of 25 to 35 mph and gusts up to 55 mph possible Saturday.

In Southern California, firefighters worked to corral a wildfire that has chewed through 3,100 acres of tinder-dry grass and light brush since it broke out Thursday afternoon east of Julian.

On Friday, the fire forced about 50 people to evacuate an RV park in San Diego County. It earlier prompted the evacuation of about 100 homes in the Shelter Valley area, but residents were allowed to return late Thursday.

The fire was 20% contained, said Nick Schuler, battalion chief for the California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection. No injuries or damage to structures were reported.

In Arizona, residents of the historic mining town of Crown King were allowed to return home after being evacuated because of a wildfire about 85 miles north of Phoenix. The fire started May 13 and has burned more than 16,000 acres. It is 35% contained, fire officials said.

In Nevada, questions were being raised over fire crews' initial response to a backyard burn that rekindled two days later, destroying two homes in a rural community and scorching 7,500 acres.

A 911 recording obtained by the Associated Press showed a resident called Sunday to report that a neighbor's permitted burn in the Topaz Ranch Estates was out of control. Volunteer firefighters with the East Fork Fire Protection District arrived at the scene and then left, apparently without extinguishing the blaze.

Gusty winds rekindled the fire Tuesday, and it spread quickly through thick brush and dry grasses. Two homes and 17 outbuildings were destroyed.

District Fire Chief Tod Carlini did not immediately respond to messages seeking comment Friday.

Copyright 2012 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed.For more information about reprints & permissions, visit our FAQ's. To report corrections and clarifications, contact Standards Editor Brent Jones. For publication consideration in the newspaper, send comments to letters@usatoday.com. Include name, phone number, city and state for verification. To view our corrections, go to corrections.usatoday.com.

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Summer Gas Waiver Granted for Western Pennsylvania (ContributorNetwork)

Hurricane Irene inflicted some damage on northeastern Pennsylvania, and Tropical Storm Lee compounded that damage by flooding even more areas. As damage estimates quickly approach the $50 million level, another issue that resulted from the series of bad weather was quickly handled by Gov. Tom Corbett and the Environmental Protection Agency. The regulation that requires a summer blend of gasoline be sold in the Pittsburgh area was lifted.

What does gasoline in Pittsburgh have to do with flooding on the other side of the state?

Flooding from Lee and Irene has caused fuel delivery delays to southwestern Pennsylvania. Those pipelines carry large amounts of fuel to the Pittsburgh region. In addition, Irene caused the shutdown of many pipelines and refineries that supply gas to western Pennsylvania. The summer blend of fuel is what retailers are required by law to sell, and is in short supply and could have run out. Since the conventional fuel is readily available, the state asked for a waiver from the EPA to sell that fuel to avoid additional difficulties.

Why is summer blend fuel required?

During the summer months in an effort to reduce emissions, the EPA requires the summer blend to keep those smog-creating chemicals at a minimum. Outside the Pittsburgh area, conventional fuel is available all year, but the city has a notorious air quality record that draws the attention of the EPA. The summer blend is required for the period of June 1 to Sept. 15, which means the date was drawing close anyway.

Has the waiver issue been raised before?

The issue of having the Pittsburgh area issued a waiver for use of conventional fuel versus summer blend was brought up earlier in the year. During that event, problems with the pipeline caused a minor gas shortage in the Pittsburgh area; however, a waiver was not granted in that case.

What counties are affected?

There are seven counties in the Pittsburgh area affected by the change in fuel: Allegheny, Armstrong, Beaver, Butler, Fayette, Washington, and Westmoreland. The waiver should assure an adequate supply of gas for consumers.

Jason Gallagher is a long-time Pennsylvania resident. He has experiences in trends and developments in many regions from having lived in many parts of the Keystone State, and currently resides in the Pittsburgh area.

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USDA Gives $3 Million to Five Western States for Flood Aid (ContributorNetwork)

According to a press release from the U.S. Department of Agriculture government website, the USDA announced it will be giving $3 million to five western states to provide emergency watershed protection as each are under threat from potential flood damages as record amounts of mountain snowpack melt.

The announcement was made today by Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack, who said the federal funding would come directly from the USDA's Natural Resources Conservation Service. Each state -- Colorado, Idaho, Utah, Wyoming and Montana, -- would be receiving financial and technical assistance in the sum of $600,000 for Emergency Watershed Protection. With this government funding, each state's Natural Resources Conservation Service

Vilsack spoke about the importance of bringing emergency funding to each of the five western states as the threat of potential flooding becomes larger. Vilsack said, "Having the EWP Program funds in advance will help USDA work quickly with local, state and tribal sponsors to provide needed assistance if the snowpack melts rapidly and causes flooding. USDA has long played a vital role in helping state and local governments and communities with water management in this region."

Many states are already bracing for flooding as the snowpack melts. According to the Republic in Greeley, Colo., officials have been forced to close several roads because the Poudre River is continuing to rise to higher than normal water levels. Sen. Mark Udall, R-Colo., said that the funding would go toward removing debris and projects that help prevent soil erosion.

Utah is also preparing for the floods as well. Utah National Guard helicopters helped deliver giant sandbags on Friday to help hold back rising floodwaters after a levee on the Weber River breached Thursday due to melting snowpack in the northern part of the state, according to the Salt Lake Tribune. So far the waters have hit farmland and several homes nearby.

The USDA press release noted the EWP Program works with local governments to bring the assistance to where it's needed and that it helps with all different types conservation efforts during major natural disasters, including floods, wildfires, windstorms, and droughts, and aids directly in protecting both citizens and public and private property. In the case of floods, the funding can help reduce storm water runoff, preventing soil erosion, and removing floating and submerged debris that get caught along river routes.

Rachel Bogart provides an in-depth look at current environmental issues and local Chicago news stories. As a college student from the Chicago suburbs pursuing two science degrees, she applies her knowledge and passion to both topics to garner further public awareness.

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