Preparing for hell and high water: Researchers advocate for climate adaptation science

Changes are already happening to Earth's climate due to the burning of fossil fuels, deforestation and large-scale agriculture. As changes get more pronounced, people everywhere will have to adjust. In this week's issue of the journal Science, an international group of researchers urge the development of science needed to manage climate risks and capitalize on unexpected opportunities.

"Adapting to an evolving climate is going to be required in every sector of society, in every region of the globe. We need to get going, to provide integrated science if we are going to meet the challenge," said senior scientist Richard Moss of the Department of Energy's Pacific Northwest National Laboratory. "In this article, we describe the foundations for this research and suggest measures to establish it."

Climate preparedness research needs to integrate social and climate science, engineering, and other disciplines. It prepares for impacts by determining who and what are most vulnerable to changes and considering ways to adapt.

"Science for adaptation starts with understanding decision-making processes and information needs, determining where the vulnerabilities are, and then moves to climate modeling. A final step tracks whether adaptation is effective," said Moss, who is based at the Joint Global Change Research Institute, a collaboration between PNNL in Richland, Wash. and the University of Maryland.

The article grew out of a workshop held in August 2012 at the Aspen Global Change Institute in Aspen, Colo., on how to improve support for decision-making in the face of a changing climate. The authors arrived at this approach to guide preparedness research based on the need to reduce the risks that climate change presents.

"The need to adapt and adjust is going to be global," said Moss. "We need a flexible, integrated approach that merges theoretical and problem-oriented sciences around four general challenges."

The four challenges are:

Understanding what information is needed to make decisions about adapting to climate changeIdentifying vulnerabilities in society, the economy and the environmentImproving forecasts and climate models in ways that can address specific problemsProviding technology, management, and policy options for adapting

As an example of how practical and basic research can work together, Moss described work in the U.S. involving water utilities, university scientists, and private firms to pilot use of climate models and water utility modeling to design resilient water systems.

"This research is motivated by a practical challenge, ensuring reliable water supplies. Among the scientific advances that will be required is better integration of weather and climate models to improve decadal climate information to help people plan," Moss said.

Bringing together diverse disciplines at the Aspen workshop allowed the international team to explore all facets of adaptation, including less examined ones such as how scientific information is (and isn't) used in making decisions.

"Traditionally we think that what society needs is better predictions. But at this workshop, all of us -- climate and social scientists alike -- recognized the need to consider how decisions get implemented and that climate is only one of many factors that will determine how people will adapt," he said.

The focus on problem-solving could open up new sources of funding as well, sources such as non-governmental organizations, industry -- any group with specific problems that adaptation science could solve.

"We will make a virtue of necessity," said Moss.

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As water ebbs in Minot, thoughts of recovery (AP)

By DALE WETZEL and JOHN FLESHER, Associated Press Dale Wetzel And John Flesher, Associated Press – 7 mins ago

MINOT, N.D. – The Souris River began a long, slow retreat in Minot on Sunday, leaving behind an arduous rebuilding job for more than 4,000 homeowners and hundreds of business operators, most of whom lack insurance to pay for it.

Because they don't have coverage, federal assistance could amount to as little as a few thousand dollars apiece. Loan and grant programs will provide some help, as will an emergency relief fund just being set up.

Still, there was at least one ray of hope: State lawmakers might be able to lend a hand, thanks in large part to North Dakota's oil boom, which generates $1 billion a year in tax money and has helped shield the state from the worst of the recession.

Few people in Minot carried flood insurance — only 375 homes in the flooded areas, said John Ashton, a spokesman for the Federal Emergency Management Agency.

Mike and Jodi Picard checked with neighbors when moving into their house less than two years ago and found that just one had flood insurance. The river was a quarter-mile away, and the prevailing opinion was that "we were not in a floodplain anymore" after a 1969 flood led to construction of levees and straightening of the river channel.

"Now you really kick yourself for not having it," said Jodi Picard.

The Souris topped out Sunday nearly 2 feet below projections heading into the weekend, and it appeared damage might not extend beyond the homes and businesses that took on water Friday. Officials warned against overconfidence until the river fell enough to take the pressure off levees. The National Weather Service projected the river would decline 2 feet by midweek.

The Picards stood on a bridge overlooking the swollen river, straining for a glimpse of their house in a distant cul-de-sac. It appeared water was knee-deep on the main floor.

The couple was staying with relatives in the area but said they were determined to return home. After the water recedes, they'll pump the basement dry, tear out drywall and insulation and make needed repairs.

State lawmakers will probably consider offering flood relief during a special session this fall. They have $386 million in a rainy-day fund, as well as another $136 million in a school-aid fund that could be diverted to the many communities touched by floodwaters this year. Both funds are fattened by state oil revenues.

"I think we're going to look at Bismarck, Minot, the whole statewide flooding issue, and look at them all together," said Senate Majority Leader Bob Stenehjem, a Republican from Bismarck.

When it comes to paying for rebuilding, FEMA has approved individual assistance for Burleigh (home to the capital of Bismarck) and Ward counties, where Minot is located. Gov. Jack Dalrymple is pushing to expand it to 20 other counties and the Turtle Mountain Chippewa and Spirit Lake Sioux reservations.

"We know that we have a tremendous recovery effort coming, and even as we talk about how to beat this water back over the next few days, we have already started talking about how the recovery will be managed and organized," the governor said.

The FEMA assistance is capped at a little more than $30,000, but Sen. Kent Conrad, a North Dakota Democrat, said a more realistic figure is $7,000 to $8,000 — the typical amounts provided to victims of severe flooding in Nashville, Tenn., a year ago.

FEMA and the federal Small Business Administration will offer loan and grant programs, too. The Bank of North Dakota, the nation's only state-owned bank, already offers low-interest loans up to $500,000 to business people, farmers and ranchers living in areas that the president has declared a disaster area.

The bank and the state's Public Finance Authority also have made low-interest loans available to local governments while they wait to collect expected federal aid after they make repairs on their public works.

Eric Hardmeyer, the Bank of North Dakota's president, said the bank learned valuable lessons about administering disaster aid from the epic Red River Valley floods of 1997, which swamped the city of Grand Forks, knocked out its sewer and water systems and forced the evacuation of more than 50,000 people.

"We found that we needed to let the federal programs get in and do their business before we found out where we should play," Hardmeyer said. "Their pockets are deeper, and they're more experienced at that than we are."

Pat Owens, who was mayor of Grand Forks when the flood hit in April 1997, said federal agencies were critical to the city's recovery. They set up a one-stop shop for aid programs in Grand Forks' Civic Auditorium.

"That was a salvation," Owens told The Associated Press in a telephone interview Sunday. "People would not know how to even begin trying to bring their lives back, and that gave them a place to go."

Les Younger, a retired Air Force veteran who maintained aircraft weapons systems at Minot Air Force Base, and his wife, Jacque, a seamstress, said they did not buy flood insurance because they thought their home was far enough from the river.

Jacque Younger said the couple's recovery "is going to be very tough, because we don't have a lot of savings." But they tried to put the best face on it by thinking of how they might change things in rebuilding.

"You have to look on the bright side, because if you look on the dull side, it gets you down," Jacque Younger said.

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Japan nuke plant struggles with contaminated water (AP)

TOKYO – A system to treat contaminated water that is impeding repairs at Japan's damaged nuclear power plant is not performing as well as hoped but should be functioning fully next month, a government official said Thursday.

Since the March 11 tsunami, workers have cooled the reactors and spent fuel by pumping fresh water, which becomes contaminated with radiation. About 110,000 tons of tainted water have accumulated, threatening to leak into the sea and posing health risks and logistical hurdles to the workers struggling to make repairs at the plant.

"The contaminated water problem is the biggest barrier right now," said Goshi Hosono, director of the government's nuclear crisis task force. "We are anxious to stabilize the treatment system one way or the other."

Problems were expected along the way, he said, but added that he wanted to get the system fully operational by the end of June and running stably by mid-July.

"The water treatment system is a key step toward bringing the reactors to cold shutdowns," he said. The plant operator and the government's goal for cold shutdown is early January.

Workers at the Fukushima Dai-ichi plant have struggled to get the treatment system fully operational before the tainted water overflows. It's estimated that could happen in early July.

The contaminated water has hampered work to install a sustainable cooling system at the reactors. Unit 1 is close to that stage, but the other two reactors have fallen behind due to high radiation or large amounts of debris.

The water treatment system involves parts from around the world.

Toshiba Corp. and Hitachi have developed oil- and salt-removal components, but a trial run Wednesday of a component developed by Kurion Inc. of the United States only reduced the level of radioactive cesium to one-tenth of what had been expected, TEPCO spokesman Junichi Matsumoto said.

A component made by French nuclear giant Areva SA also underperformed, he said.

The treatment system was halted last week when a cartridge reached its limit of radioactive cesium after only five hours, not several weeks as expected. After cleaning and adjustments, the system is being tested and has intermittently processed nearly 2,000 tons of water, Matsumoto said.

Hosono said the system was assembled in a rush and problems were not surprising since the system has never been tested in an environment as severe as Fukushima Dai-ichi. He said he also has instructed TEPCO to secure extra tanks as emergency storage for the water to keep it from leaking into the ocean.

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Japan nuclear plant gets radioactive water tanks (AP)

TOKYO – Tanks for storing radioactive water are on their way to the crippled nuclear power plant in northeastern Japan where reactor cores melted after the massive March 11 earthquake and tsunami.

Tokyo Electric Power Co., the utility that operates the troubled Fukushima Dai-ichi plant, says two of the 370 tanks were due to arrive Saturday. Each of the tanks can store either 100 tons or 120 tons of radioactive water.

The tanks will continue arriving through August, and will store a total of 40,000 tons of radioactive water. TEPCO says the radioactive water leaking from the reactors and pooling across the plant could start overflowing from temporary storage areas on June 20, or possibly sooner if there is heavy rainfall.

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Manitoba slows down release of water from Assiniboine River

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May 17, 2011 ARCHIVES  |  Weather  |  NEWS

Vittorio Hernandez - AHN News

Winnipeg, Manitoba, Canada (AHN) - Manitoba officials went ahead and pushed through with the plan to release water from the swollen Assiniboine River on Saturday. However, officials slowed the rate of release from the original plan of 3,000 cubic feet per second to less than 500.

Manitoba Emergency Measures Organization Minister Steve Ashton told the province's legislature on Monday that the controlled release of water will likely not go beyond 1,000 cubic feet per second in the coming days.

He explained that dry, sunny weather has helped flood fighters stabilize the inundation in the Canadian province.

The government released the water at the Hoop and Holler Bend to ease pressure on the dikes weakened by the high level of water and to prevent more widespread damage if the dike blew. The released water flowed southeast of the Hoop and Holler Bend and has so far flooded three homes, Ashton disclosed.

Flood controllers continue to monitor about 20 weak spots on dikes along the river west of Portage la Prairie.

The flood has so far displaced 3,600 Manitobans. To help the province cope with the inundation, Ottawa sent 1,500 Canadian Forces to help strengthen the dikes through sandbagging operations.

Copyright 2011 by (AHN)
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