System to calculate lightning under development

Huge numbers of people who work or play outdoors might eventually soon possess a new tool to assist them to prevent being struck by lightning.

Based on a 2-year research grant from NASA, researchers on your lawn System Science Center in the College of Alabama in Huntsville are mixing data from weather satellites with Doppler radar and statistical models inside a system that may warn which specific pop-up storm clouds will probably produce lightning so when that lightning will probably begin and finish.

"Our major goals would be to boost the lead time that forecasters have for predicting which clouds are likely to create lightning so when lightning will begin,Inch stated Dr. John Mecikalski, among the project company directors as well as an connect professor in UAH's Atmospheric Science Department. "When we can mix data from satellites, radar and models right into a single lightning forecast system, we are able to provide the National Weather Service along with other meteorologists a brand new tool to aid predictions."

Additionally to operate done at UAH and NASA, the brand new lightning nowcasting project uses information produced by scientists at a number of institutions, Dr. Mecikalski stated. "Many of the research in lightning conjecture continues to be done, but weather service forecasters weren't obtaining the take advantage of that actually work. For example, you will find still limited radar-based lightning forecast tools open to forecasters despite everything which has been completed in that area."

While there's no operational lightning forecast system using radar, scientists while using existing Doppler weather radar system could possibly get lightning forecasts right about 90 % of times, he stated, but could only give in regards to a ten to fifteen minute lead time.

Using cloud data from NOAA's GOES weather satellites, they wishes to boost the warning time up to 30-45 minutes before a storm's first lightning expensive, although individuals predictions may be somewhat less accurate.

By merging the satellite and radar systems with statistical models, the UAH team wishes to create an finish-to-finish lightning forecast system that may track bad weather cell and it is lightning in the first indications of rapid cloud growth completely through its collapse, supplying lightning predictions that rise in confidence like a cell evolves from cloud to towering cumulus to thunderstorm.

The brand new lightning conjecture system may also be coupled with UAH's "nowcast" storm predicting system, that is available on the web at nsstc.uah.edu/SATCAST. The SATCAST system uses cloud top temperature data collected by instruments on NOAA satellites to calculate which pop-up clouds will probably produce rain, so when that rain will probably start.

Throughout the system's early development, the UAH team uses data from storms in Florida (certainly one of North America's lightning locations) and North Alabama to check the best way to mix the 3 teams of operational data right into a real-time conjecture system, stated Dr. Ray Carey, another project co-director as well as an connect professor of atmospheric science at UAH.

When the concept is proven and also the product is working within the test areas, they intends to expand its coverage region by region over the U.S., modifying for that unique storm dynamics of every region, like the High Flatlands.

Additionally to presenting cloud top temperature data available through existing weather satellites, the brand new lightning forecast system may also be involving lightning expensive information collected through the Geostationary Lightning Mapper, an optical instrument slated to become released aboard generation x of NOAA weather satellites in 2016.

Capable of seeing, pinpoint and count almost all lightning flashes on the large area of the globe, the GLM instrument will let forecasters track a person storm's lightning profile, which coupled with other data might be employed to help forecasters problem an exciting-obvious whenever a storm has stopped triggering lightning flashes.

Throughout yesteryear 3 decades, lightning has wiped out about 50 individuals the U.S. every year, which makes it the nation's third-most standard reason for weather-related deaths (behind surges and tornadoes) throughout that point. It's believed that lightning also injures about 500 individuals the U.S. every year, although a lot of lightning injuries go unreported.

Worldwide, it's been believed that within an average year lightning will kill about 24,000 people while hurting another 240,000.

While forecasters would be the primary audience likely to make use of the new lightning nowcast system, the system's designers hope the internet predictions of impending rain and lightning will also have value for individuals involved with outside activities, for example construction, farming and coordinators of outside occasions.

View the original article here

Half the country wilts under unrelenting heat (AP)

SPRINGFIELD, Mass. – A third day of unseasonable heat blistered the eastern half of the country Thursday, making tornado cleanup miserable in Massachusetts and sending country music fans in Tennessee to hospitals, while the surge in demand for energy knocked out power to sections of downtown Detroit.

Relief was on the way in the Northeast, however, as an approaching cold front triggered evening thunderstorms. Tens of thousands lost power in parts of New England as the storms passed through.

The persistent heat and resulting storms has been blamed for at least eight deaths from the Plains to the East Coast, where authorities prepared emergency rooms and encouraged neighbors to check on the elderly as temperatures soared above 100 in spots.

Detroit officials intentionally cut power to city hall and a convention center Thursday to prevent the municipal power system from crashing from high energy demand — even though temperatures had tapered to the 70s after two days above 90. Equipment failures knocked out power to several other government buildings and traffic lights in parts of the downtown.

"Because there was a short window of time, we had to make a decision to take some of our customers off to prevent a blackout of the entire city," Detroit mayoral spokeswoman Karen Dumas said.

Some Northeastern schools canceled classes or closed early for a second day Thursday so students would not have to suffer with no air conditioning. Cooling centers opened in Chicago, Memphis, Tenn., Newark, N.J., and other cities as a refuge for those without air conditioning.

In New Jersey, records of 102 degrees were recorded at the Newark and Atlantic City airports, beating their respective previous records of 99 degrees and 98 degrees set in 2008. The temperature also reached 102 degrees at Ronald Reagan National Airport near Washington, matching a record set in 1874. Philadelphia hit 99 degrees, one degree higher than a record set in 1933.

"I'd love to be indoors, but I don't make any money that way," said Jose Serrano, a landscape worker cutting lawns and trimming bushes in Toms River, N.J. "When it comes to working in these conditions, you just do what you have to do, you know?"

In Springfield, chain saws whirred amid high heat and humidity as workers cleared tree branches and other messes left by tornadoes that struck the area last week, killed three people and left hundreds living in shelters. The temperature hit 92 on Thursday.

As survivors sought clothing vouchers, diapers and other supplies, volunteers pressed cold water on them because many still lack electricity and thus refrigeration. Fire trucks passed out cases of water in addition to tarps for patching roofs.

Light clouds provided scant relief for the volunteers frequently seeking shade in Red Cross tents.

"The heat is certainly making it a little more impossible," said Linda-Jo Perks, co-commanding officer of the Springfield branch of the Salvation Army.

While the Northeast began seeing some relief late Thursday as a cold front swept through with cooler, drier air, the scorching heat was to linger for days in the South. Music fans in Tennessee had that to keep in mind as three major festivals commenced.

The four-day Bonnaroo Music and Arts Festival began Thursday, with 80,000 general admission tickets sold for the event being held on a 700-acre farm about 60 miles southeast of Nashville. In Chattanooga, 600,000 people are expected over nine days at the Riverbend Festival.

Alberta Kelly of New Brunswick in Canada attended her first County Music Association Festival Thursday in Nashville. After arriving, she promptly went shopping for sunglasses. The temperature was in the 90s.

"I wasn't prepared for this at all," she said. "It hit me pretty hard when I got off the plane. I also got sunburned."

Vanderbilt University Medical Center spokesman Jerry Jones said Thursday that about 50 people at the CMA fest were treated Wednesday, about half for heat-related conditions. Ambulances took three to hospitals.

In Waldorf, Md., several dozen students were overcome by heat while attending an event at a semi-pro baseball stadium. Charles County spokeswoman Crystal Hunt said 82 children were either treated at the stadium or taken to hospitals, and that the most seriously ill student, who showed symptoms of a heat stroke, was later released.

In Paterson, N.J., Dr. Mark Rosenberg of St. Joseph's Hospital said more than a dozen patients were treated there Wednesday for heat-related illnesses.

Authorities have blamed the heat and lightning from severe storms for deaths of eight people in Tennessee, Maryland, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Missouri in recent days.

In Pennsylvania, lightning killed a 13-year-old boy who was in a field near his Chester County home Thursday night, emergency dispatchers said.

Officials on New York's Long Island reminded people to check on their relatives and friends, especially the elderly.

Outdoor activities challenged residents in the Northeast, where extreme heat this early in the season — summer's official beginning is still more than a week away — is rare.

With temperatures soaring above 90 in Concord, N.H., the recreation department canceled a fitness class held each week in White Park.

Andrea Wilson enjoyed the playground and the duck pond with her two young daughters as a few people lunched at shaded picnic tables at an otherwise deserted park.

"It's getting a little bit hot," Wilson said. "But it's nice to come and have the breeze off the pond and let the kids go to the playground and get in a little bit of shade under the trees over there.

"But it is hot, very hot," she said. "But they don't mind."

At the outdoor track at Penn State University in State College, Pa., Special Olympians made a beeline for blue 5-gallon water buckets before afternoon activities at the Franklin County games had even started. Down the street and around the corner, an electronic marquee flashed a temperature of 93 degrees.

No sweat, said Brittany Brumbaugh, 20, who was taking part in the mini-javelin and long jump events Thursday.

"It don't bother me a bit," said Brumbaugh, the front of her green shirt wet after playfully throwing a cup of water on a teammate who had bumped into her. "Just drink a lot of water."

At a temporary petting zoo set up at the Olympics, Jennifer Zajaczkowski kept watch on a llama, two goats and Fern, the sheep — sheared the day before to keep cool.

"Yesterday, she was panting so bad that I actually was sponging under her armpits," Zajaczkowski said.

A heat emergency was issued in Cincinnati, where fans of the Reds and the Chicago Cubs tried to stay cool at Great American Ball Park. Kathryn Burke, of Pikeville, Ky., wore a straw hat and brought two bottles of frozen water and a mister.

"And I brought the knowledge to leave when I've had enough of the heat," she said.

____

Contributing to this report were Associated Press writers Jessica Gresko, Brett Zongker and Randolph E. Schmid in Washington, Genaro C. Armas in State College, Pa., Michael Melia in Hartford, Conn., Holly Ramer in Concord, N.H., Murray Evans in Oklahoma City, Bruce Shipkowski in Toms River, N.J., Josh Lederman in Trenton, N.J., Dan Sewell in Cincinnati, and Ed White in Detroit.

View the original article here