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Showing posts with label World. Show all posts
Showing posts with label World. Show all posts

Sunday, May 4, 2014

Length of time without rain to significantly rise in some world regions

Through the finish from the twenty-first century, certain parts around the globe can get as much as 30 more days annually without precipitation, according to a different study by Scripps Institution of Oceanography, UC North Park scientists.

Ongoing global warming triggered by human influences will affect the character of methods snow and rain falls areas which are vulnerable to dry conditions will get their precipitation in narrower home windows of your time. Computer model forecasts of future conditions examined through the Scripps team indicate that regions like the Amazon . com, Guatemala, Indonesia, and all sorts of Mediterranean climate regions all over the world will probably begin to see the finest rise in the amount of "dry days" each year, not having rain for as much as thirty days more each year. California, using its Mediterranean climate, will probably have 5 to 10 less damp days each year.

This analysis advances a trend in climate science to know global warming on the amount of daily weather as well as on finer geographic scales.

"Alterations in concentration of precipitation occasions and amount of times between individuals occasions may have direct effects on plant life and soil moisture," stated Stephen Jackson, director from the U.S. Department from the Interior Southwest Climate Science Center, which co-funded the research. "(Study lead author Suraj) Polade and co-workers provide analyses that'll be of considerable value to natural resource managers in climate adaptation and planning. Their study signifies an essential milestone in enhancing environmental and hydrological predicting under global warming."

Polade, a postdoctoral investigator at Scripps, stated that certain from the implications of the finding is the fact that annual rain fall turn into less reliable in drying out regions as annual earnings is going to be calculated on the more compact length of time. The 28 models utilized by they demonstrated agreement in lots of parts around the globe around the alternation in the amount of dry days individuals regions will get. These were in less agreement about how exactly intense rain or snow is going to be if this does fall, although there's general consensus among appliances probably the most extreme precipitation will end up more frequent. Climate models agreed less how the conflicting daily changes affect annual mean rain fall.

"Searching at alterations in the amount of dry days each year is a different way of focusing on how global warming will affect us which goes beyond just annual or periodic mean precipitation changes, and enables us to higher adjust to and mitigate the impacts of local hydrological changes," stated Polade, a postdoctoral investigator who works together with Scripps climate researchers Serta Cayan, David Pierce, Alexander Gershunov, and Michael Dettinger, who're co-authors from the study.

In regions such as the American Southwest, where precipitation is in the past infrequent where a few storms more or less can produce a wet or perhaps a dry year, annual water accumulation varies. Home loan business precipitation frequency means much more year-to-year variability in freshwater assets for that Southwest.

"These profound and clearly forecasted changes make physical and record sense, but they're invisible when searching at lengthy-term trends in average climate forecasts," Gershunov stated.

Other regions around the globe, many of which are climatologically wet, are forecasted to get more frequent precipitation. Most such regions are this is not on land or are largely not inhabited, the equatorial Gulf Of Mexico and also the Arctic prominent included in this.

The authors claim that follow-up studies should stress more fine-scale analyses of dry day occurrences and work at comprehending the myriad regional factors that influence precipitation.

"Climate designs include enhanced greatly within the last ten years, which enables us to appear at length in the simulation of daily weather as opposed to just monthly earnings," stated Pierce.


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Sunday, December 18, 2011

2011: the year some pillars of world order shook (AP)

The Arab Spring swept across the Middle East, toppling dictators in a rolling surge of street protest. Europe's currency plunged into crisis, bringing down elected prime ministers. An earthquake and tsunami pummeled Japan, confronting it with the specter of nuclear disaster.

It was a year that shook the pillars of the established order. Even in an era of change and moment-to-moment communications across the planet, 2011 felt extraordinary. Week after week, month after month, across continents and oceans, the news just kept on coming.

At times the post-World War II, postcolonial, post-Cold War dispensation seemed to tremble under shows of people power not seen in the 22 years since the fall of the Berlin Wall.

By year's end at least three Arab leaders were gone, and at least three European prime ministers had been toppled by the upheaval over the euro, a currency that was supposed to symbolize a strengthened, united Europe.

First to fall to the Arab Spring was President Zine El Abdine Ben Ali, cast into exile six weeks after a disgruntled vegetable vendor sparked an uprising by setting himself on fire.

The fastest revolution was Egypt's. It took just 18 days, and vast crowds gathered in central Cairo to force the resignation of President Hosni Mubarak who had ruled the most populous Arab nation for nearly 30 years.

The bloodiest revolution was the one against Libya's Moammar Gadhafi, 42 years in power, who was toppled by a concerted NATO bombing campaign, then killed in circumstances still under investigation.

The slowest-burning revolt was Yemen's, stretching from February until November, when President Ali Abdullah Saleh agreed to step down by Dec. 23. Still raging on were daily demonstrations against Syrian President Bashar Assad, in which the U.N. said more than 5,000 people died. The island kingdom of Bahrain fought street battles with its subjects; another kingdom, Jordan, experienced street protests.

The tensions didn't stop there. The U.N.'s atomic agency renewed accusations that Iran secretly worked on a nuclear weapon, Western sanctions on Iran intensified, and a mob seized the British Embassy in Tehran in retaliation.

The longer-term results of the convulsions triggered by the Arab Spring were far from clear.

The immediate outcome was a surge in support for long suppressed Islamic movements, whose strength was quickly apparent when Tunisia and Egypt held their first fully free elections in memory. The Islamist successes in Egypt threw into question Egypt's long-term alliance with the U.S., its strongest financial and diplomatic backer, and its peace treaty with Israel, long supported by Mubarak but deeply unpopular in Egyptian public opinion.

Facebook and cellphone images played an important role in organizing protesters and getting dramatic scenes past the censors back home and onto the world's TV sets. They also were crucial to Israel's summer of discontent that brought multitudes onto the streets to protest high prices and inequalities; to Russians' unprecedented demonstrations against Prime Minister Vladimir Putin; and to the "occupy" movements that began in New York against Wall Street and spread to other continents in protest against those responsible for the financial meltdowns of the past two years.

Dysfunctional finances dominated the headlines in 2011, particularly in Europe, starting with a bailout for Greece's faltering economy. As other weak economies came under pressure and faced the likelihood of painful budget austerity, the prime ministers of Greece and Italy were forced to resign, and their Spanish counterpart was ousted in an election.

While street politics and financial fears dominated the headlines, the U.S.'s nearly nine-year war in Iraq reached its end with the low-key departure of the last American soldiers. It had left 4,500 Americans and 110,000 Iraqis dead, divided Americans, angered international public opinion and cost more than $800 billion. What was left was a fragile democracy and a potential for violence underscored by a bombing in December that killed 21 Shiite pilgrims in a religious procession.

Meanwhile, the war in Afghanistan ground on with more than 500 foreign troops, almost 400 of them American, killed in combat against the Taliban in 2011.

NATO had spent another year trying to train up to 350,000 Afghan troops and police to take over security once foreign forces are gone in 2014. But this year was marked by several spectacular Taliban operations, among them the downing of a U.S. military helicopter, killing 30 Americans and seven Afghan commandos aboard_ the war's single deadliest loss of American lives.

Osama bin Laden, mastermind of the 9/11 attacks on the U.S., was killed by U.S. Navy Seals who helicoptered into Pakistan and raided the house where he turned out to have been living.

The triumph was soured by recriminations with Pakistan, the U.S.'s vital ally in the war against the Taliban, for invading its air space, and then by the news that some of the Seals who killed bin Laden were among the 30 Americans on the helicopter downed in Afghanistan.

Meanwhile, just as Haiti's earthquake opened 2010 with the grimmest of news, March 2011 saw Japan's biggest earthquake on record send a tsunami crashing into the country's eastern coast, leaving 19,334 people dead or missing by government count, and inflicting damage estimated at nearly $220 billion.

At the Fukushima Dai-ichi nuclear power plant complex, three reactor cores melted down and an estimated one-fifth the radiation of Chernobyl poured into the surrounding air, water, soil and forests. Radiation leaks have since fallen dramatically, but a 20-kilometer (12-mile) zone round the plant remains off-limits and nearly 100,000 residents who fled their homes remain in limbo, unsure when they can return, if ever.

While nearly all the rubble along the coast has been cleared, rebuilding is only just beginning. But the overall economy has largely bounced back.

If the Japanese earthquake was Asia's worst horror of the year, Europe's took place in Norway, where a homegrown terrorist set off a bomb in Oslo's government district, then went to a summer camp dressed as a police officer and gunned down youths as they ran and swam for their lives. The attacks killed 77 people in the peaceful nation's worst violence since World War II. Psychiatric experts have since declared the self-styled anti-Muslim militant legally insane.

On the science front, the world said goodbye to the U.S. space shuttle as it closed three decades of service with its last flight in July. An E coli bacteria outbreak in Europe spread to 15 countries and killed 68 people. Scientists reported sightings of particles that appeared to defy Albert's Einstein's theories by traveling faster than light. Other scientists said they were closing in on a possible key building block to the universe popularly known as the "God particle."

Sex scandals took their turn in the headlines, first with charges that Italian Prime Silvio Berlusconi paid an underage prostitute for sex, then with the arrest of Dominique Strauss-Kahn, head of the International Monetary Fund, accused of sexually assaulting a chambermaid in a Manhattan hotel. While Berlusconi faced trial, New York prosecutors dropped their case against Strauss-Kahn.

2011 witnessed a landmark in the political thawing of Myanmar, formerly Burma, long under military rule but making moves toward democracy that made possible a visit by U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton.

Meanwhile, in Africa, a new nation was born out of civil war as South Sudan broke away from Sudan and became a U.N. member state. Palestine also set out to achieve membership but its bid stalled in the Security Council. However, the Palestinians managed this year to win recognition by UNESCO, the U.N. cultural agency.

In Central America, the Mexican drug war between cartels and government forces marked its fifth year, having claimed tens of thousands of lives. And Daniel Ortega, the one-time Sandinista revolutionary, was re-elected president of Nicaragua by a landslide, having sidestepped a constitutional limit on re-election.

For Britain, 2011 was a grim year of street riots and looting that shook its cities in the summer, and of revelations of privacy-invading foul play by its tabloid newspapers that appalled the nation. And as the year ended it found itself accused by its European partners of letting them down for refusing to join their pact to save the euro.

Yet all the same, the British managed to produce something to capture hearts around the world and offer assurance that some pillars of the old order still stand firm: the wedding of Kate Middleton to Prince William, son of the late Princess Diana — a union of commoner and blueblood that promised to revitalize the British monarchy.


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Monday, November 7, 2011

Dust Obscures Picture of Hurricanes in Warming World (LiveScience.com)

As a doozy of a hurricane season wraps up, scientists are eager to understand how these storms will change as the climate warms. They are finding several curious influences that can cause hurricanes to move in counterintuitive ways.

Scientists have a pretty good idea that hurricanes will become less frequent and more intense due to climate change, said oceanographer Chunzai Wang during a recent visit to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory (AOML) in Miami, where scientists study everything from ocean acoustics to hurricane forecasting.

But other curveballs that recently have come to light complicate the picture. One is dust.

Every year, storms over West Africa disturb millions of tons of dust, and strong winds carry those particles westward into the skies over the Atlantic Ocean, where many hurricanes form. [Infographic: Storm Season! How, When & Where Hurricanes Form]

During a dust spike triggered by heavy rainfall, there's a drop in hurricanes in the Atlantic basin, Wang said. As the dust spreads into the atmosphere, it increases what's called the vertical wind shear, the change in wind direction that comes with height, Wang said. That's bad news for hurricanes, because too much wind shear can break up tropical cyclones (the general term for hurricanes and tropical storms).

A few years ago, scientists at the University of Wisconsin, Madison, pored over satellite data from the past 25 years and found that during years when the dust storms rose up, fewer hurricanes swept across the Atlantic. Periods of low duststorm activity were followed by more-intense hurricane activity.

Another curveball is warm water. Earlier this year, Wang and colleagues also published a report finding that, counterintuitively, a large pool of warm ocean water in the Atlantic Ocean keeps hurricanes away from the United States.

Wang said a hurricane behaves like a leaf floating in a river, totally at the whim of the current. So goes the river, so goes the leaf. A large Atlantic warm pool causes the atmospheric "river" to steer toward the northeast, carrying a hurricane with it and away from the United States.

This scenario played out during the 2010 hurricane season, when a large warm pool kept an otherwise active hurricane season from having an impact on the United States.

This story was provided by OurAmazingPlanet, a sister site to LiveScience. You can follow OurAmazingPlanet staff writer Brett Israel on Twitter: @btisrael. Follow OurAmazingPlanet for the latest in Earth science and exploration news on Twitter @OAPlanet and on Facebook.


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