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Showing posts with label likely. Show all posts
Showing posts with label likely. Show all posts

Wednesday, September 19, 2012

Bermuda wary, but calm as storm likely to pass by

HAMILTON, Bermuda (AP) – Tropical Storm Leslie swirled northward in the Atlantic late Saturday toward Bermuda, and forecasters said it might strengthen into a hurricane again while passing to the east of this wealthy British territory.

A satellite image shows Hurricane Leslie churning in the Atlantic Ocean near Bermuda on Wednesday. Leslie is projected to pass east of Bermuda on Sunday afternoon or evening. AFP/Getty Images

A satellite image shows Hurricane Leslie churning in the Atlantic Ocean near Bermuda on Wednesday. Leslie is projected to pass east of Bermuda on Sunday afternoon or evening.

AFP/Getty Images

A satellite image shows Hurricane Leslie churning in the Atlantic Ocean near Bermuda on Wednesday. Leslie is projected to pass east of Bermuda on Sunday afternoon or evening.

Forecasts pointed to the storm following a track about 200 miles east-southeast of the British territory Sunday afternoon or evening, the Bermuda Weather Service said.

"Bermuda seems to have escaped the worst of Tropical Storm Leslie," said Wayne Perinchief, the national security minister. "However, we should by no means let our guard down as we are still expecting strong winds and rain as well as dangerous ocean conditions overnight and well into Sunday. "

The government said that unless the storm's course changed, the airport would remain open, although major airlines already canceled flights. Officials also called off plans to open an emergency shelter but said the facility would remain in a state of readiness in case it was needed.

Bermuda, a financial haven and tourist destination, has strong building codes and is accustomed to storms, and many people on the island were not worried by Leslie.

"I have taken precautions," said Gareth Kerr, 29. "The windows have the shutters across and I got supplies such as water and tinned food. If the weather is bad tomorrow I'll just sit indoors."

Still, there was the chance of some flooding, said James Dodgson, a forecaster for the Bermuda Weather Service. Dodgson said the storm surge was likely to be relatively small at one or two feet but the surge coupled with high tide Sunday could cause some minor flooding in low-lying areas.

"I urge the public to remain cautious," Perinchief said.

The U.S. National Hurricane Center in Miami said that by late Saturday, the storm was maintaining top sustained winds of 65 mph, below the hurricane threshold of 74 mph.

Leslie was about 200 miles southeast of Bermuda and was moving north at 8 mph. The U.S. center said some strengthening was expected and Leslie could regain hurricane strength Sunday or Sunday night.

"We expect the weather to go downhill later today with strong gusty winds," said Eric Blake, a hurricane specialist at the U.S. center.

The total amount of rainfall could reach two inches or more, he said.

Out in the middle of the Atlantic and considered no threat to land, Hurricane Michael remained a category 2 storm but slowed a bit to maximum sustained winds of 100 mph. On Thursday, it was briefly the first Category 3 of the Atlantic hurricane season.

Michael was moving north-northwest at 6 mph. It was about 920 miles west-southwest of the Azores.

Copyright 2012 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed.For more information about reprints & permissions, visit our FAQ's. To report corrections and clarifications, contact Standards Editor Brent Jones. For publication consideration in the newspaper, send comments to letters@usatoday.com. Include name, phone number, city and state for verification. To view our corrections, go to corrections.usatoday.com.

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Friday, September 14, 2012

Bermuda on alert as storm likely to skirt island

HAMILTON, Bermuda (AP) – People in Bermuda braced Friday for a weekend of rough weather from Tropical Storm Leslie as forecasters said the system would likely regain strength and become a hurricane again while passing to the east of this Atlantic Ocean island.

A satellite image shows Hurricane Leslie churning in the Atlantic Ocean near Bermuda on Wednesday. Leslie is projected to pass over or near Bermuda on Sunday. AFP/Getty Images

A satellite image shows Hurricane Leslie churning in the Atlantic Ocean near Bermuda on Wednesday. Leslie is projected to pass over or near Bermuda on Sunday.

AFP/Getty Images

A satellite image shows Hurricane Leslie churning in the Atlantic Ocean near Bermuda on Wednesday. Leslie is projected to pass over or near Bermuda on Sunday.

The Bermuda Weather Service said the storm was on track to pass about 200 miles (321 kilometers) east-southeast of the island late Sunday afternoon as a Category 1 hurricane.

"It appears that Bermuda will be spared a direct impact," said Wayne Perinchief, the national security minister for the British territory. "However, I urge the public to remain cautious as there is the potential for the storm to re-intensify and change track, and we could experience heavy rain and winds in shower bands."

Some businesses were closing early and people crowded into shops to stock up on emergency supplies. At least one cruise ship canceled a stop in Bermuda and the airport was expected to close.

There was no widespread panic because the island, a wealthy offshore financial haven and tourist destination, has strong building codes and is accustomed to storms.

The U.S. National Hurricane Center in Miami said Leslie resumed forward movement Friday after staying stationary overnight. Late Friday, the storm had top sustained winds of 65 mph (100 kph), below the hurricane threshold of 74 mph (120 kph).

The storm was about 360 miles (575 kilometers) south-southeast of Bermuda and was moving north at 3 mph (6 kph). The U.S. center said it would likely strengthen Saturday and Sunday, adding that Leslie also was expected to begin gradually increasing its forward speed.

Out in the middle of the Atlantic, Hurricane Michael was a category 2 storm with maximum sustained winds of 100 mph (160 kph). On Thursday, it was briefly the first Category 3 of the Atlantic hurricane season.

Michael was moving northwest at 6 mph (9 kph) over the open ocean and was not a threat to land. It was about 940 miles (1,515 kilometers) west-southwest of the Azores.

Copyright 2012 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed.For more information about reprints & permissions, visit our FAQ's. To report corrections and clarifications, contact Standards Editor Brent Jones. For publication consideration in the newspaper, send comments to letters@usatoday.com. Include name, phone number, city and state for verification. To view our corrections, go to corrections.usatoday.com.

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Saturday, October 1, 2011

Tropical Storm Ophelia Likely to Reform (ContributorNetwork)

The National Weather Service states Tropical Storm Ophelia's remnants are just over the Northern Leeward Islands in the Atlantic Ocean as of today. There is a 90 percent chance this system will develop into a tropical storm again as it moves to the west-northwest. Thus far the system is not near any huge land masses, but it could eventually reach the eastern United States.

Trailing behind Ophelia is Tropical Storm Philippe, which is forecast to turn north into the Atlantic and go out of harm's way. Ever since Hurricane Irene slammed into the East Coast, the Atlantic basin has been active with tropical systems. Luckily strong storms have avoided the mainland of the United States.

Forecasters predicted a more active than normal hurricane season this year. The Climate Prediction Center proposed as many as 19 named storms this year. Philippe is No. 16 on the list with another two months to go in hurricane season.

The Houston Chronicle reports all of these tropical systems haven't done the exceptional drought in Texas any good whatsoever. After Sept. 24, the chances of hurricanes hitting the Texas coast are very low in terms of historical numbers. The last late-season hurricane to make landfall in the Lone Star State was Hurricane Jerry in 1989.

The entire state of Texas is covered in a severe drought or worse. If anyone needs a huge dowsing storm from the Atlantic Ocean or Gulf of Mexico, Texas is a prime candidate. They weren't so fortunate this year as most tropical systems stayed away from the southern United States. Tropical Storm Lee made landfall over Louisiana and only brushed the eastern edges of Texas.

Places like Dallas, Austin and Del Rio have set records for the most 100-degree days in one year. Dallas has had 70 days at 100 degrees or greater, eclipsing the old record of 69 set in 1980. Austin's Camp Mabry set a mark of 86 days that obliterated the old record of 69 set in 1925. San Antonio needs three more days to break 2009's record of 59 100-degree days.

The wettest months in Texas have already passed for this year and fall may not bring much relief. The drought will need inundating rain for at least a week to dissipate. Crop losses are already in the billions of dollars with cattle farmers taking their herds to be sold.

As hurricane season draws to a close, the exception drought may continue until at least next year for weary residents of Texas.


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Monday, May 23, 2011

Hurricane season 2011: U.S. will likely take direct hit

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May 20, 2011 ARCHIVES  |  Weather  |  NEWS

Ayinde O. Chase - AHN News Editor

Miami, FL, United States (AHN) - The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration announced its forecast for the 2011 Atlantic hurricane season Thursday morning. Experts say it is unlikely the U.S. will escape a direct hurricane hit during this busy Atlantic season.

Arlene, Bret, Cindy and Don are just a few of a long list of North Atlantic storms that could deluge the country and Caribbean this season.

Experts are predicting three to six major hurricanes, six to 10 hurricanes and 12 to 18 named storms. A major hurricane is defined as any Category 3 to Category 5 storm, or sustained winds of 111 mph and up.

NOAA's predictions were similar to those of a prominent group of forecasters from the University of Colorado, who said they expect 16 named storms, nine hurricanes and five major hurricanes.

The National Hurricane Center said the average hurricane season has 11 named storms, six hurricanes and two major hurricanes.

This season, however, has a 65 percent chance of being above normal, a 25 percent chance of being near normal and a 10 percent chance of being below normal.

Colorado State University scientist Phil Klotzbach, who issues seasonal predictions, said warm sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic Ocean, which favor storm formation, combined with sea level pressures that likely will be lower than normal, could spawn more activity.

"The United States was fortunate last year," said Jane Lubchenco, administrator of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration in a Houston Chronicle report. "We can't count on luck to get us through this season."

Hurricane season begins June 1.

Copyright 2011 by (AHN)
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