Climate Lottery- Ranking For January 2013

So far, for the winter of 2012/2013 the winning lottery numbers for December 2012 were 109 and for January 2013 81.

The National Climatic Data Center has been ranking months, seasons and years from 1 to 119 since 1895 with 1 being the coldest possible temperature average ranking and 119 being the warmest possible temperature average during 2013. In the Climate Lottery game, I've defined each individual lottery number as rankings for each month for the lower 48 states, Power Ball numbers as those for each season, and Mega Ball numbers as those for each year. As we keep seeing over and over again the Climate Lottery game is rigged towards those higher number rankings due to global warming.

January 2013 was the 39th warmest January in recorded history with a Climate Lottery Pick Ranking of 81.

Warm conditions for most of the lower 48 states aided to raise averages to high levels during the early part of the month and last week of the month. The Weather Channel named eight winter storms...Freyer, Gandolf, Helen, Iago, Jove, Kahn, Luna, and Magnus...for the month; but despite the snow and ice, averages for December remained high, which only proves that winter weather can still occur across portions of the country despite the warming trend. The early January cold snap in the West produced much below averages from the Rockies to the West Coast. The overall raking for the U.S. came up as 81...well above the average of 59 and a red number as rankings go. Looking at the map you can pick out each individual state ranking. The overall ranking of 81 is not an average of the 48 individual state rankings; rather the ranking is a comparison of temperature averages for the lower 48 states for September since 1895.

Again, I am getting all of my ranking numbers from the National Climatic Data Center.
The link for the National Climatic Data Center's Climate at a Glance Site where the rankings are archived is: http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/research/cag3/cag3.html

I'm keeping the format on all of my charts the same as on my previous posts. The average ranking for 2013 is
59 (or 60) since the coldest ranking would be 1 and the hottest would be 119. I have color coded all rankings for this post at or below 38 blue and all those at or above 79 red with rankings + or -- 19 from the median value of 59 black.

Amazingly, the first nine months of 2012 had rankings above 100 setting the stage for that "Mega-Ball" ranking for 2012 of 118. Thirty out of the first thirty seven months of the 2010's have been red...a phenomenon I attribute to anthropogenic global warming.

The following are some record statistics for this decade, so far. The number of daily records (including ties) is depicted for each month. Note that the difference between the number of daily record lows and daily record highs correlates well with the average monthly temperature rankings (or individual climate lottery numbers). The higher number the ranking, usually, the greater difference between the number of daily record high and daily record low numbers (including those for the year...the Mega-Ball rankings). This phenomenon is very much a concern during the summer months when record heat can cause deaths.

And for this year the pattern has started out warm, as well in January:

I'm getting all of my surface record statistics from the following site: http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/extremes/records/

I started a log of daily record high and daily record low reports back on 1/1/2000, which led to a peer reviewed study headed by Dr. Jerry Meehl of UCAR.
Details on the record study can be found at: http://www.sciencenews.org/view/generic/id/49508/description/Record_chills_are_falling_but_in_number_only

For a reference to my last "Climate Dice" post and forecast for the winter see:
http://www.weather.com/news/climate-lottery-december-20121212

February 2013 has started out on the mild side across many portions of the country, as well, despite the powerful storm dubbed Nemo in the Northeast, so it's highly likely that the "Power-Ball" ranking number for winter 2012/2013 will wind up above average. We'll see how the exact "drawing" went down on my next post, which I'll write when NCDC processes the data for this winter around March 8th.

Guy Walton...."The Climate Guy"
Lead Forecaster, the Weather Channel

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Rare January Tornado Kills Two in Alabama (ContributorNetwork)

The Associated Press reports two people have died in Alabama due to a fast-moving line of severe storms. Officials have seen damage patterns that are concurrent with an EF2 tornado, although that has not been determined by National Weather Service officials at this point. If a tornado did touch down, it is a rare weather phenomenon in January for the U.S.

Tornadoes don't normally form in the winter, yet over the past three years winter time severe storms have made headlines.

Data

The National Weather Service's Storm Prediction Center states an average of 17 tornadoes struck the U.S. in January over the past three years. There were six in 2009, 30 in 2010 and 16 in 2011. Preliminary data in 2012 indicate there have been 13 possible tornadoes this year as of Jan. 17. No deaths have been reported in the previous three years until the streak was broken this year.

Outbreak of 2008

Fox News reported in early January 2008 that eight people died due to severe storms that struck the Midwest. Heavy flooding swept away three people in Indiana when five inches of rain melted snow that contributed to the massive flooding. A tornado in central Arkansas killed one resident and a separate tornado killed two people in Missouri.

An EF3 tornado hit northern Illinois, the first tornado to hit Illinois in January since 1950. The storm track of the 2008 tornado was 13.2 miles long and about 100 yards wide.

Wisconsin also had a tornado spawned by the same storm system that struck Illinois. It was the first January tornado in Wisconsin since 1967. Two tornadoes formed in southeast Wisconsin as a stationary front helped produce a lot of moisture.

Why January Tornadoes?

If the weather is right, temperatures can rise across the contiguous 48 states in January. South winds and sunny skies are usually needed for such conditions to form ahead of colder temperatures coming from the north and west.

In the 2008 outbreak, tornado warnings and severe weather happened across portions of eight states. Missouri, Kentucky, Tennessee, Wisconsin, Arkansas, Illinois, Indiana and Oklahoma. Cities in several northern states such as New Jersey and New York ahead of the storm front moving through those areas. Cities that had severe weather also saw record high temperatures.

In 2010, a tornado passed over Huntsville, Ala. Southern states are more likely to see winter time tornadoes as temperatures are higher in places like Louisiana, Alabama and Florida. Sometimes warm winds and weather systems in the Gulf of Mexico and tropical Atlantic Ocean can blow up into the U.S. mainland and increase temperatures. Then colder air comes from Canada to cause a sudden temperature drop that can form tornadoes.

William Browning is a research librarian.

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January Tornadoes Turn Deadly in Alabama (ContributorNetwork)

A severe line of storms that started in Arkansas and Missouri moved eastward, leaving a trail of destruction from high winds and tornadoes in the Midwest and the South. According to MSNBC, at least three people are dead in Alabama, and homes and businesses were destroyed in several states and thousands without power late Sunday and early Monday.

* The Storm Prediction Center of the National Weather Service posted preliminary data from the overnight storms and it included 22 tornado reports.

* In Arkansas, the SPC reported tornadoes were spotted near Fordyce, Coy, Slovak, Lodge Corner, DeWitt and Burks. The counties were Cleveland, Dallas, Lonoke, Prairie, Arkansas and Crittendon.

* In Mississippi, tornadoes were spotted near Trebloc and Lauderdale.

* In Tennessee, there was a possible tornado report in Dickson.

* MSNBC reported that in Alabama, the three deaths occurred near Birmingham. Center Point was hit especially hard. Tuscaloosa, which saw death and destruction from tornadoes in April, suffered damage.

* Accuweather.com reported a fourth fatality had occurred in Alabama.

* Accuweather also reported damage in the Paradise Valley, Millbrook and Clanton areas in Alabama. In Clanton, a tornado is believed to be behind the destruction of a radio station and transmission tower. A report from Millbrook stated winds knocked down trees and power lines and tore apart fences and metal buildings.

* There were reports of severe damage, downed trees, snapped power lines and debris blocking roads in several areas around Alabama, Arkansas, Missouri, Tennessee, Mississippi, Kentucky, Illinois and Indiana. The SPC received numerous reports of high winds and wind damage, lightning and power outages across parts of these states.

* In Arkansas and Tennessee, there were reports of tractor-trailers and signs blown over on Interstates, according to the SPC.

* Large hail was reported to the SPC from several states, with multiple reports of quarter-sized hail in Alabama, Arkansas, Illinois and Kentucky. Some locations reported hail that was half-dollar in size and larger. There was a report of hail the size of a hen's egg in Calloway County, Ky., and at least one report of hail the size of softballs in Jefferson County, Ark.

* Following overnight high winds, the ferry at Cave-in-Rock, Ill., was closed temporarily, as reported by WPSD-TV. The ferry transports travelers the Ohio River between Illinois and Kentucky but high winds that continue in the region on the heels of Sunday night's storm system are still creating dangerous conditions in the area and the decision was made to close the ferry until weather conditions improve.

Tammy Lee Morris is certified as a Community Emergency Response Team (CERT) member and is a trained Skywarn Stormspotter through the National Weather Service. She has received interpretive training regarding the New Madrid Seismic Zone through EarthScope -- a program of the National Science Foundation. She researches and writes about earthquakes, volcanoes, tornadoes, weather and other natural phenomena.

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